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WeatherFeen2000

February 2018 Model thread

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We got a lot of potential this upcoming month I’d like to see a negative NAO for a huge storm although -NAO ia hard to come by the past few years! It seems that we’ll get over running waves on a stalled out front just to our south, which usually means a decent amount of snows. The SWFL usually tend to turn to mixed bag at the end so we should watch for that potential too. Unless we get a SWFL that forms a low off the coast which could produce huge amounts of snow. The Canadian had this solution yesterday for February 2nd-3rd timeframe but has lost almost lost it euro looked good last night for that same system.

 

Discuss it below

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16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

How does eps look

 

Decent. And actually better than 00z. Overall colder look. Probably a 4-8 in event for those north of I 195 in NJ. My only concern is that this gradually trends south to the GFS.

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1 hour ago, Enigma said:

 

Decent. And actually better than 00z. Overall colder look. Probably a 4-8 in event for those north of I 195 in NJ. My only concern is that this gradually trends south to the GFS.

I think I’m more afraid of this ending up too far inland because of the phase 7 MJO and the tendency of that WAR to want to push back 

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2 hours ago, Enigma said:

 

Decent. And actually better than 00z. Overall colder look. Probably a 4-8 in event for those north of I 195 in NJ. My only concern is that this gradually trends south to the GFS.

Thanks

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7 minutes ago, Cuzin Mike said:

GFS goes east for feb 2. CMC goes west so anywhere from 0 to 7 on the table so far

If Euro continues to side with the CMC at 12Z - those would be the models to go with in this situation - GFS is more then likely doing what it usually does at this range - too suppressed and too east overplaying the northern stream - MJO and WAR favors  front getting hung up along east coast with the wave running along it either right over the top of us or just to the south.....

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The February second setup is very similar to a cold front, and as the colder air is rushing in the precip will also be shutting off. I think the higher terrain stands a decent chance at some accumulating snow, but I would go less than an inch outside of that area.

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6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The February second setup is very similar to a cold front, and as the colder air is rushing in the precip will also be shutting off. I think the higher terrain stands a decent chance at some accumulating snow, but I would go less than an inch outside of that area.

I see nothing of note right now til around the 9th or later unless this event Friday makes a comeback.  I don’t think the Sunday or Monday event next week is an issue because the positioning of the high is completely off.  The whole setup would need a major overhaul to be anything other than a front with showers right now 

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There is a Vendor Thread here to post all the stuff from the numerous paid online METS :rolleyes: anyways IMO until we get into a more favorable MJO phase - 8 -1-2 or even the COD can't trust the models with any SECS MECS in advance .

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There is a Vendor Thread here to post all the stuff from the numerous paid online METS :rolleyes: anyways IMO until we get into a more favorable MJO phase - 8 -1-2 or even the COD can't trust the models with any SECS MECS in advance .
Ah forgot. Thank you

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11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Models are showing a potential snowstorm for next Monday

More 18Z fantasy runs from the GFS - this map will look much different in 24 hours: MJO doesn't support this yet

gfs_asnow_neus_39.png

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9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

More 18Z fantasy runs from the GFS - this map will look much different in 24 hours: MJO doesn't support this yet

gfs_asnow_neus_39.png

Every model shows this snowstorm

It's not just the MJO

PNA is rising

This is just the start of a wild ride

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16 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Guys why are talking about potentials 240 hours away we can't even get 12 hrs away forecasts!

174 hours out :hurrbear:

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It's slim pickings until mid Feb, maybe we could get lucky before then. I could see a light event sneak in there given we'll be on the edge of the cold. 

The good stuff will be from mid Feb through early March (could easily pick up 18"+ in that period alone). 

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3 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Every model shows this snowstorm

It's not just the MJO

PNA is rising

This is just the start of a wild ride

They are showing some snow possible not a storm of that magnitude. Please do not make blanket statements without evidence. We will not have substantial event until at least feb 9 in NYC

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53 minutes ago, Cuzin Mike said:

They are showing some snow possible not a storm of that magnitude. Please do not make blanket statements without evidence. We will not have substantial event until at least feb 9 in NYC

Make it less obvious please

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs and cmc still show a snow event for Monday

You wonder if the weather gods are trying to tell the NFL not to have any cold climate outdoor Super Bowls again. 

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