January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

[Interstate]

I like it... a model war for the Feb 2/3.  Still no clarity as all models hold to their own at the 12z run.  Will be interesting to see which model wins out.

GFS- Super Amped

CMC- Boundary Runner-  What we all need

Euro- Frontal Passage

[Cobalt]

Euro is not as much of a disaster as it was the past 2 runs. 1" event for DC. Better than the nada it showed 3 runs in a row.

[WxUSAF]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

It was closer to something but in the end didn't get the wave going enough. We get a flizzard basically but I'm curious to see if the EPS (like the gefs) includes some nice hits. 

Yeah, it’s closer though. I admit to being more intrigued by the coastal idea that I thought was dead yesterday. 

[Ji]

I like it... a model war for the Feb 2/3.  Still no clarity as all models hold to their own at the 12z run.  Will be interesting to see which model wins out.
GFS- Super Amped
CMC- Boundary Runner-  What we all need
Euro- Frontal Passage

Let's just go with the compromise lol

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I like it... a model war for the Feb 2/3.  Still no clarity as all models hold to their own at the 12z run.  Will be interesting to see which model wins out.

GFS- Super Amped

CMC- Boundary Runner-  What we all need

Euro- Frontal Passage

GFS most amped lol. Have we stepped into a parallel universe?

[yoda]

Should we break up the two threats into different threads?  Or keep them both in here?

[Cobalt]

Just now, yoda said:

Should we break up the two threats into different threads?  Or keep them both in here?

I'd say create a thread for the 30th threat, and leave the other one for here. Just my opinion. 

[WxUSAF]

Just now, yoda said:

Should we break up the two threats into different threads?  Or keep them both in here?

I vote to split out the 30th to a new thread and keep the 2/3 talk here for now.

[mappy]

7 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Euro is not as much of a disaster as it was the past 2 runs. 1" event for DC. Better than the nada it showed 3 runs in a row.

Parrs Ridge shows up nicely there

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I vote to split out the 30th to a new thread and keep the 2/3 talk here for now.

Okay... you start it re the 30th thread

[yoda]

15 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I like it... a model war for the Feb 2/3.  Still no clarity as all models hold to their own at the 12z run.  Will be interesting to see which model wins out.

GFS- Super Amped

CMC- Boundary Runner-  What we all need

Euro- Frontal Passage

12z NAVGEM looks CMCish as the run ends -- see 168 to 180

[psuhoffman]

The funny thing is we're technically still in what was supposed to be the "crap" pattern.  We start transitioning this week but I do still think the core of the coming colder pattern will be after feb 10 when the mjo gets back into favorable phases. But with a little luck in the next 7 days we could end up winning before that pattern even gets here. 

[Ji]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The funny thing is we're technically still in what was supposed to be the "crap" pattern.  We start transitioning this week but I do still think the core of the coming colder pattern will be after feb 10 when the mjo gets back into favorable phases. But with a little luck in the next 7 days we could end up winning before that pattern even gets here. 

for once i agree with the positive assessment. the Pattern change was suppose to start in my mind like Feb 7 for us so anything between now and then(probably nothing) is gravy

[pasnownut]

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The funny thing is we're technically still in what was supposed to be the "crap" pattern.  We start transitioning this week but I do still think the core of the coming colder pattern will be after feb 10 when the mjo gets back into favorable phases. But with a little luck in the next 7 days we could end up winning before that pattern even gets here. 

was thinking the same thing yesterday....this is all "bonus" stuff IMO.  I'll tell ya though, if seasonal progression means anything and we can get that boundary a little further south....look out jack!!

We'd be dizzy from all of the threats.  I'm in....

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

The pattern hasn't built yet

Once these things get going models shift pretty significantly at least vs their biases for wintery threats. Monster -EPO/WPO. It's usually not a good pattern for snow unless the block retrogrades into Greenland or Canada and it's really dry right now.... not sure the STJ will amp up all of a sudden. It's been too wet in the 5+ day all winter

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, Ji said:

for once i agree with the positive assessment. the Pattern change was suppose to start in my mind like Feb 7 for us so anything between now and then(probably nothing) is gravy

 

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

was thinking the same thing yesterday....this is all "bonus" stuff IMO.  I'll tell ya though, if seasonal progression means anything and we can get that boundary a little further south....look out jack!!

We'd be dizzy from all of the threats.  I'm in....

The best part is we never had to endure an extended period of nothing to track. By the time the shutout pattern set in we could start to see the other side. 

I know we have been unlucky with specific threats but the way the pattern has gone is usually indicative of a year that doesn't end in total failure. It just feels like we should luck our way into something eventually. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Interstate said:

I like it... a model war for the Feb 2/3.  Still no clarity as all models hold to their own at the 12z run.  Will be interesting to see which model wins out.

GFS- Super Amped

CMC- Boundary Runner-  What we all need

Euro- Frontal Passage

The euro has a wave on the front but its weak. Generally 1-2" across our area. But it's there. It was a good trend I thought but I didn't want to stop Ji's pity party. 

eta: the wave drops about .3-.4 qpf across most of the area. Even pockets of .5 and 850s support snow but the surface is warm and we lose most of the wave to non accumulating snow or cold rain. But it was very close to a good run. Not sure where the disaster thing came from.  

[Interstate]

Anyone have the EPS for Thursday-Friday?

[pasnownut]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

The best part is we never had to endure an extended period of nothing to track. By the time the shutout pattern set in we could start to see the other side. 

I know we have been unlucky with specific threats but the way the pattern has gone is usually indicative of a year that doesn't end in total failure. It just feels like we should luck our way into something eventually. 

I know many like big ticket items, but I'm in Big Bob's line of thinking.  I'll take multiple chances at something than using all of the house chips Cobalts playing with on one big one.  Better odds for sure.

[Cobalt]

Just now, Interstate said:

Anyone have the EPS for Thursday-Friday?

Not really notable enough. Same snowfall increase as 0z EPS. Kind of a copy and paste of that timeframe. 

If you still want me to post it though, I can. Just wasn't notable. 

[pasnownut]

8 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Not really notable enough. Same snowfall increase as 0z EPS. Kind of a copy and paste of that timeframe. 

If you still want me to post it though, I can. Just wasn't notable. 

here

 

[pasnownut]

I'll add that the EPS looks further south with both 500 and 850's, so lets pick the models that show the most cold AND the most snow and go from there :).

 

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

The EPO block also rebuilds and its max time is usually about 15 days. Then it acts like a negative number, in that anything can follow but that (40/40 or something). Aleutian trough is probably wrong... it's La Nina, It seems to be some kind of mathematical error in the 10+ day based around general -AO. Probably not a super cold pattern although there could be cold days. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Not really notable enough. Same snowfall increase as 0z EPS. Kind of a copy and paste of that timeframe. 

If you still want me to post it though, I can. Just wasn't notable. 

I actually think the EPS and gefs just had what COULD be an ah ha moment. I say could because I want to see it stick in future runs but if it does we will look back at this run as the one that first hinted at big potential. 

The day 5 EPS mean jumped from .5" to 1" at D.C.  The day 10 jumped from 1.5" to 3". The 15 day from 3" to 4. 

The gefs was a straight weenie carnival run. We have to see this stay for a few runs but today was the best run all winter and it's trending better at about the time things should come into better clarity. 

Gefs 

EPS

The euro control wants to build a glacier over us. It has a respectable event feb 2 then snows on us almost nonstop day 11-14 with wave after wave. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

For the 28/29 storm... I hate that the wave is breaking into two separate parts again. This is new pattern that didn't happen before, every cold front snow threat becomes a lagging wave. there should really be no reason for the space between

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

For the 28/29 storm... I hate that the wave is breaking into two separate parts again. This is new pattern that didn't happen before, every cold front snow threat becomes a lagging wave. there should really be no reason for the space between

That should be our regions new title in winter. 

[Chris78]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I actually think the EPS and gefs just had what COULD be an ah ha moment. I say could because I want to see it stick in future runs but if it does we will look back at this run as the one that first hinted at big potential. 

The day 5 EPS mean jumped from .5" to 1" at D.C.  The day 10 jumped from 1.5" to 3". The 15 day from 3" to 4. 

The gefs was a straight weenie carnival run. We have to see this stay for a few runs but today was the best run all winter and it's trending better at about the time things should come into better clarity. 

Gefs 

EPS

The euro control wants to build a glacier over us. It has a respectable event feb 2 then snows on us almost nonstop day 11-14 with wave after wave. 

Wow! I know the snow maps need to be taken with a grain of salt but they do tend to ramp up heading into our snowy periods. That's a big signal there in my opinion. Granted they could do a 180 in 6 hours but that's the best look I've seen all winter.

[RedSky]

That's a February 2014 and 2015 look there on the euro control run yeah let's do that

 

[dallen7908]

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
300PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018 

...slightly edited to emphasize the eastern US ... 

3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Feb 10 2018-Fri Feb 23 2018 

The ensemble mean 500-hPa height forecasts from the various dynamical models are in largely good agreement, favoring anomalous ridging (troughing) over western North America and the Northeast Pacific (eastern North America). There are some differences, however, with the CFS forecasting the anomalous ridge axis over the Rockies and the ECMWF centering the same ridge axis farther west, near or just off the West Coast. Based on the Week-2 guidance, the extended GEFS, and the statistical guidance, the ECMWF solution is favored. The ECMWF solution is consistent with the expected forcing from the MJO over the next couple of weeks, and keeps good continuity with the Week-2 forecast. Broadly speaking, the MJO favors a trend toward colder-than-normal temperatures over the central and eastern CONUS heading toward mid to late February. 

The canonical MJO and ENSO climate footprints constructively interfere over interior Northeast, leading to enhanced probability of below-normal temperatures centered over the northeast. There was some disagreement over the Southeast. For this region, the statistical guidance and calibrated ECMWF forecast largely informed the forecast. 

Dynamical model precipitation guidance for the Week 3-4 period was in exceptional agreement, with nearly all ensemble mean solutions favoring below-median precipitation across most of the CONUS. Over the eastern CONUS, the size and strength of the forecast dry signal seems a bit paradoxical given the anomalous meridional temperature gradient inferred by the forecast temperature pattern. This is explained by considering the long mid-level wavelength and tendency toward above-normal sea-level pressure. The ECMWF forecast does hint at a stormtrack over the interior Southeast, but still largely depicts below-median precipitation over the entire eastern CONUS. 

Stephen Baxter
 

[Cobalt]