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WxUSAF

January Mid-Long Range Disco

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10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

My thoughts exactly. PAC can be meh. I will take my chances with Atl blocking and ridging in the preferred places. I looked at the Kocin books and one thing that 9 out of 10 KU storms have is the Atl in our favor. There are a few with meh PAC, but almost all the biggies have the Atl. 

 

 

The thing is though, if it's one or  the other you have to take the Pac 100% of the time. Yes, KU's have blocking but they also aren't annual events. Not even close. You only have to go back a couple years (12-13) to see how bad it gets with a crap pac + strong blocking. Also, the pac isn't a disaster right now so the -AO or -NAO can force something under us. Plant a big vortex over AK then turn off the lights because it's over. 

I just like snow chances in general. Doesn't have to be a KU. The pac can deliver good snow/cold with a dominant +AO/NAO regime. The pac can take away all chances of snow during a dominant -AO/NAO regime. 

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This setup is somewhat different than previous failed events where the northern stream dominated and the GFS schooled the Euro.  I’m less inclined to believe the GFS is winning this one 

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The "thaw" is happening. It's happening the last couple days and it's going to happen again sometime around or after next weekend. It only briefly looked like a lights out thaw pattern. There isn't a big SE ridge and trough in the pac NW/GOA. We get that sometimes and it can lasts weeks or even months. What we are seeing now is ridge amplification in front of strong fronts/storms but because there is no SE ridge, fronts can clear no problem. As soon at the -AO started gaining support we all dropped the long term thaw idea. We're going to get some warm days but not 5 or 10 in a row kind of stuff. 

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Just looking over the EPS, like Bob mentioned, there is a small "camp" if you will that actually bring the low right on top of DC, giving the beltway folk little and the western folk a pounding. To my untrained eye I count 6 members with this sort of evolution. 

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Just looking over the EPS, like Bob mentioned, there is a small "camp" if you will that actually bring the low right on top of DC, giving the beltway folk little and the western folk a pounding. To my untrained eye I count 6 members with this sort of evolution. 

And a red flag for those wanting more southwest.


.

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3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Just looking over the EPS, like Bob mentioned, there is a small "camp" if you will that actually bring the low right on top of DC, giving the beltway folk little and the western folk a pounding. To my untrained eye I count 6 members with this sort of evolution. 

That helps temper the miss to the east idea a bit.  But we don’t need a lot more ticks to the west.  

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6 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Just looking over the EPS, like Bob mentioned, there is a small "camp" if you will that actually bring the low right on top of DC, giving the beltway folk little and the western folk a pounding. To my untrained eye I count 6 members with this sort of evolution. 

That's a good sign though. There are more east then west solutions. The EPS doesn't suffer from group think at this range like the gefs. So there are going to be divergent outliers. It's good to have some west tracks to offset the east.  If there were only hits and misses east it would make me more worried of an east trend. Long story short I like where we are. Doesn't mean this is a lock my any means but I think this is our best threat this year. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That's a good sign though. There are more east then west solutions. The EPS doesn't suffer from group think at this range like the gefs. So there are going to be divergent outliers. It's good to have some west tracks to offset the east.  If there were only hits and misses east it would make me more worried of an east trend. Long story short I like where we are. Doesn't mean this is a lock my any means but I think this is our best threat this year. 

considering every model but the euro is east....id like to keep having a western shift. We are long way for a low tucked over alexandria, va

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6 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


And a red flag for those wanting more southwest.


.

 

6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

That helps temper the miss to the east idea a bit.  But we don’t need a lot more ticks to the west.  

We don't need any more ticks to the west then what the euro shows. Even the gfs I think if it's h5 is right will come around but very slowly. It didn't figure out the Delmarva was getting good snow Jan 4 until late. When the gfs is struggling to see it like this it often will stubbornly hang on till the last minute and cause angst every run. But what we want as bob said is simply a slightly more juiced wave and deeper low.  Even as is it was a 5-8" snow. A very very slight adjustment and it's a 6-12" storm. Too much adjustment and we're raining and the NW crew are happy. 

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

considering every model but the euro is east....id like to keep having a western shift. We are long way for a low tucked over alexandria, va

I want to see the rest come around yea but that doesn't mean the euro needs to go west. It can hold and the others trend towards it. That's pretty much what happened today. We're not inside 72 hours. I don't need a bullseye on all guidance now. Too early for that. We know it's gonna shift some. More then 50% the shift is northwest. So let it be sitting there and trend into us. That January 4 storm was over Bermuda at this range. I'm fine with where this is now on gfs and euro. Now just get some minor improvements each run on the other guidance and gfs surface. 

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That's a good sign though. There are more east then west solutions. The EPS doesn't suffer from group think at this range like the gefs. So there are going to be divergent outliers. It's good to have some west tracks to offset the east.  If there were only hits and misses east it would make me more worried of an east trend. Long story short I like where we are. Doesn't mean this is a lock my any means but I think this is our best threat this year. 

The GEFS had 2 members in that camp, so it's approximately proportion to the ensemble size.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I want to see the rest come around yea but that doesn't mean the euro needs to go west. It can hold and the others trend towards it. That's pretty much what happened today. We're not inside 72 hours. I don't need a bullseye on all guidance now. Too early for that. We know it's gonna shift some. More then 50% the shift is northwest. So let it be sitting there and trend into us. That January 4 storm was over Bermuda at this range. I'm fine with where this is now on gfs and euro. Now just get some minor improvements each run on the other guidance and gfs surface. 

I liked the EPS in general. I flipped though them all. The # of tucked solutions that rain is pretty small. The vast majority deliver some snow even if the coastal doesn't happen so my post earlier about the odds of some snow are better than a coin flip looks pretty good with the EPS as a whole. Looked like 75% of EPS members delivered some snow. I like that. There weren't too many misses east either. I liked that also. The one thing I liked the best was that all but a couple big hits had really nice distribution. A storm that hits ALL of us would go a long ways  around here. I wouldn't say that's favored yet but the EPS members that had big hits (25% or so) looks really good for the whole subforum. 

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This setup is somewhat different than previous failed events where the northern stream dominated and the GFS schooled the Euro.  I’m less inclined to believe the GFS is winning this one 

Agreed. Gfs isn’t far off from a euro outcome though. Just needs better spacing.


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11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I liked the EPS in general. I flipped though them all. The # of tucked solutions that rain is pretty small. The vast majority deliver some snow even if the coastal doesn't happen so my post earlier about the odds of some snow are better than a coin flip looks pretty good with the EPS as a whole. Looked like 75% of EPS members delivered some snow. I like that. There weren't too many misses east either. I liked that also. The one thing I liked the best was that all but a couple big hits had really nice distribution. A storm that hits ALL of us would go a long ways  around here. I wouldn't say that's favored yet but the EPS members that had big hits (25% or so) looks really good for the whole subforum. 

It was a good run. Simple. Mean snowfall jumped significantly. Not just for this storm but the whole period.  Blocking looks better every run. Today was a good day so far. We are still way too far out on this to stress details. 

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8 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

I suppose there's a first time for everything...... :) 

I win either way. On almost all the tucked solutions I'm just far enough NW to still do good even if Winchester to Hagerstown is better. On the ones that clobber D.C. I'm far enough east to do good.  That's why my mean is higher. Not because I'm likely to get more but I don't have as many misses as other locations. Only ones that miss me miss everyone. It's a good example of the details on the mean mattering more then the number. 

 So I'm rooting for a track where the 95 corridor is the east end of the big totals and the i81 crew is the west end. Everyone wins. As bob said there were a decent number of those in the EPS.   Eastern areas had their fun. Everyone else's turn. Although I'll miss the Delaware updates. 

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55 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The "thaw" is happening. It's happening the last couple days and it's going to happen again sometime around or after next weekend. It only briefly looked like a lights out thaw pattern. There isn't a big SE ridge and trough in the pac NW/GOA. We get that sometimes and it can lasts weeks or even months. What we are seeing now is ridge amplification in front of strong fronts/storms but because there is no SE ridge, fronts can clear no problem. As soon at the -AO started gaining support we all dropped the long term thaw idea. We're going to get some warm days but not 5 or 10 in a row kind of stuff. 

We're going to win some. We're gonna lose some. High variability, high volatility. Enjoy the snow to the full while it is around. Typical Nina weather. Sharp ups and downs. This winter and particularly this spring will definitely NOT be boring.

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16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 So I'm rooting for a track where the 95 corridor is the east end of the big totals and the i81 crew is the west end. Everyone wins. As bob said there were a decent number of those in the EPS.   Eastern areas had their fun. Everyone else's turn. Although I'll miss the Delaware updates. 

Yeah you're in a nice spot either way. Of course I'm always rooting for everyone to get blasted, but if that's not on the table then the western folks are REALLY overdue for a little love. 

Hopefully I can find a good alternative website to keep track of school closings in DE....

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2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

Too early I won't get excited until Amped does

Smart. 

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1 minute ago, Ian said:

Smart. 

ION!

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

ION!

:wub:

2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

What brings you to this shiithole

see avatar 

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This post won't be very interesting to the more knowledgable posters here, but I've been trying to get a better understanding of what's going on between the surface and 500mb.  Today's Euro run was a good example, so I thought I'd share while we wait for the 18z globals and ensembles.

At hour 132 on today's Euro run, snow is falling across much of our region. 

We5G9oc.png

The coastal has formed offshore, but the surface winds are from the north. 

7GBQzDP.png

But it is dry to our north.  So where is all the water for the precipitation coming from?  It becomes clear if you look at the midlevels.  The below gif starts at the surface and goes up to 500mb. 

Vz3piwK.gif

If you track the centers of circulation at each level, you can see that there is basically a funnel of circulation extending from the surface low (on the east end) to the 500mb trough (on the west end), with closed circulation at all levels except 500 mb (which is just about to close off).  At 850 mb and 700 mb, there is a clear onshore component to the winds, and at these levels there is high relative humidity over us.  I believe that's where the water is coming from.  The closed low at 500 mb helps establish a more onshore flow in the mid-levels, which is why it gives us bigger storms.  Someone please correct me if I'm wrong!

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People manage their emotions differently. I'm excited we have something' legit to track. Doesn't mean I think it's gonna snow yet or I'll be distraught if it doesn't. 

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