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January 4-6 Coastal Bomb Observations/Nowcast


Baroclinic Zone

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6 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

I'm a little concerned looking at the IR and rotation, seems like last couple frames it's almost taken an ENE trajectory.. I also realize the precip field is expansive, but with the progressive flow, and now almost taking a 90 one has to wonder if totals will be less in Western areas now? My original call west of the river for 6-10 stands though.

 

-SN 19/11... approaching .5" OTG

Unless I'm not looking in the right spot, it actually does not look as far east as it should be.

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2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

This ENE jog  at this point has been well-modeled.  I wouldnt' change the thinking, unless you were over-optimistic.

sn-, 14.8*

I was always weary west of the river, I'm about halfway between the river and state line, but also less than 10 from the MA line, so I first thought 4-8, then upped to 6-10, 10 being close to the river, we'll see where the banding sets up, possible second jack somewhere in central CT?

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9 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

I'm a little concerned looking at the IR and rotation, seems like last couple frames it's almost taken an ENE trajectory.. I also realize the precip field is expansive, but with the progressive flow, and now almost taking a 90 one has to wonder if totals will be less in Western areas now? My original call west of the river for 6-10 stands though.

 

-SN 19/11... approaching .5" OTG

That's actually the capture as the third shortwave begins to interact with the system. It will kick more east for a period here.

Then we start the cyclonic wave break and it will begin to curl in towards Nova Scotia.

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7 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

I was always weary wary west of the river, I'm about halfway between the river and state line, but also less than 10 from the MA line, so I first thought 4-8, then upped to 6-10, 10 being close to the river, we'll see where the banding sets up, possible second jack somewhere in central CT?

fixed.

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3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Can’t say I hate anything this morning. Thing we get plenty of mid level magic in C CT. I am worried about some exhaust in SE CT and parts of RI. Maybe 2 maxes one in E mass and another from ORH To HVN?

Yeah, if I had to guess, based on radar trends our band ends up a little inland from the coast.

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4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Can’t say I hate anything this morning. Thing we get plenty of mid level magic in C CT. I am worried about some exhaust in SE CT and parts of RI. Maybe 2 maxes one in E mass and another from ORH To HVN?

Can't argue with that, Ryan. I like the way things are lining up.

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