OSUmetstud Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 There's been an increase in confluence over NS/NL the past few days in the modeling, might be offsetting some of the convection/downstream ridge building effects? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 GFS doubling down with the 18z track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 That would be advisory at best... looks like a couple inches... after all of this... that would suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 15 minutes ago, dryslot said: 0z Reggie Very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, SR Airglow said: Yup, it's got a decent(2-4" ish) looking band over central CT up into interior MA though which fits some of the discussion from earlier. Yeah the QPF was actually better for interior SNE despite the further east solution...but that's prob not really relevant anyway. All the guidance does have some forcing back pretty far west....so I'd expect some snow back there, but for the higher end solutions we obviously want this to tick further west....not that I would expect the GFS to catch onto such a solution before other globals...but we'll want to see the other globals tonight look decent I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, leo2000 said: Very nice u should be routing for eastern solutions, not western ones... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 GFS is just a hair east, but is 5 mb lower this run as it bombs NE up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 This one has grown tedious. I’m hoping but glad work will pull my brain into some kind of equilibrium tomorrow. Long winter ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 There's been an increase in confluence over NS/NL the past few days in the modeling, might be offsetting some of the convection/downstream ridge building effects? Get the fans going at YYT. Point them east. Might be able to trend it in your favour...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 CMC backed off. Still ok but tonight’s trends blow so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 CMC backed off. Still ok but tonight’s trends blow so far.Shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: This one has grown tedious. I’m hoping but glad work will pull my brain into some kind of equilibrium tomorrow. Long winter ahead. Too many moving parts, that just don’t want to seem to come together. These storms are worse than the ones that miss by hundreds of miles. So close, but so far. I think a light event is favored at this point... a glancing blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Hazey said: Get the fans going at YYT. Point them east. Might be able to trend it in your favour...lol. you have some hope for more snowy solutions, I think im relegated to snow to rain, haven't seen anything to change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: This one has grown tedious. I’m hoping but glad work will pull my brain into some kind of equilibrium tomorrow. Long winter ahead. What long modeled winter storms don't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Yeah... you could tell pretty early on the CMC wasn’t going to be as good. 0-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: What long modeled winter storms don't? Those that show a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I’s like to see eura and eps improve on the features discussed, that’s where my money willbe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Any snow is good snow for me, so bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Ouch. Thanks for posting. I was going to mention this. That’s a pretty healthy cutback... over half in some places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: Those that show a hit. As you know, hits and knock outs are scored differently. You will at least get hit Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 you have some hope for more snowy solutions, I think im relegated to snow to rain, haven't seen anything to change that. You should get some decent winds out of it. Consolation prize perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: As you know, hits and knock outs are scored differently. You will at least get hit Thursday. Hopefully. I’ve seen lot of whiffs with these over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Hazey said: You should get some decent winds out of it. Consolation prize perhaps. U should take a flight to Sable and hang out in the hurricane. I should get 50-55 kt gusts out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Every time I drink crown royal during a model run we get crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 GGEM was barely east of 12z...the QPF looks a lot worse, but again, I wouldnt be paying attention to QPF too much yet. The main features shifted like 15-20 miles toggling the 00z 66h panel vs 12z 78h panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Toss the snowmaps for actual amounts, but a consistent theme has been showing up for days. MA gets it good... we get screwed, and it gets its act back together for Eastern Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: GGEM was barely east of 12z...the QPF looks a lot worse, but again, I wouldnt be paying attention to QPF too much yet. The main features shifted like 15-20 miles toggling the 00z 66h panel vs 12z 78h panel. Yeah the posts in here had me scratching my head. Didn't look THAT bad to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: GGEM was barely east of 12z...the QPF looks a lot worse, but again, I wouldnt be paying attention to QPF too much yet. The main features shifted like 15-20 miles toggling the 00z 66h panel vs 12z 78h panel. Yeah I have the queen crown tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: Every time I drink crown royal during a model run we get crap. Should be drinking the Crystal head vodka to fill your blood with some Labrador current waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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