WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: This is what makes me nervous...this is 700mb VV on the GFS. Pretty extensive area of some slightly negative VV's just to the NW of where the banding would be (logically). That is going to really not only damper someones day but kill someones forecast somewhere If that verifies...Ginxy and JC aren’t gonna be happy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: There will be a localized area that gets 20"...remember I posted this. For sure.... but I think his + basically covers that. Seems like we are seeing a bit of leveling off so far at 00z... which is somewhat expected. Should be a great storm for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: Yeah well he emphasized it on air..that was the Honk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This is what makes me nervous...this is 700mb VV on the GFS. Pretty extensive area of some slightly negative VV's just to the NW of where the banding would be (logically). That is going to really not only damper someones day but kill someones forecast somewhere Thats gonna happen somewhere but where who knows......remember Feb 2013? Greatest death band ever......we knew it right away too.....At this point you gotta hope we're not smokin that when it comes......its the most frustrating thing ever......are you in West Hartford for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Looking at the 0z UKMET, It may be a another tic west from the 12z run but tough to tell from that map from france. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: For sure.... but I think his + basically covers that. Seems like we are seeing a bit of leveling off so far at 00z... which is somewhat expected. Should be a great storm for many. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Yeah, I mentioned that about an earlier run. Looked like March '13 to me. Midlevels are gonna be wound up really tight with a low this deep; I do worry that someone is gonna suck major subsidence. 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: If that verifies...Ginxy and JC aren’t gonna be happy... It's definitely going to verify it's just a question of where. What goes up must go down! If you have an area of extreme upward vertical motion you have to have an area of extreme downward vertical motion somewhere. There could be so many localized pockets of subsidence too...what a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Yeah, I mentioned that about an earlier run. Looked like March '13 to me. So the GFS is saying that the entire area of eastern SNE, where all of the models have been putting the axis of heavy precip, is gonna get the squelch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: If that verifies...Ginxy and JC aren’t gonna be happy... Congrats old forge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, JBinStoughton said: So the GFS is saying that the entire area of eastern SNE, where all of the models have been putting the axis of heavy precip, is gonna get the squelch? I'll sell that....I think that's west of the main band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ice1972 said: Thats gonna happen somewhere but where who knows......remember Feb 2013? Greatest death band ever......we knew it right away too.....At this point you gotta hope we're not smokin that when it comes......its the most frustrating thing ever......are you in West Hartford for this? I am...supposed to fly out to TX too at like 5 AM Friday morning. I might wake up at 6:00 AM and make a snow forecast since I have to do stuff after work and it would be like 10 PM before I could which would be cheating but if I had to do something now...I would maybe do 4-8'' east of the River. I would **** bricks though about the upper end of the range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Here's where we stand. SS really digging, an interesting little meso looking thing southeast of Miami. NS looks potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: Congrats old forge? Lmao...right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll sell that....I think that's west of the main band. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, Hoth said: Lol, he's seen plenty of snow. Been nonstop since Thanksgiving up there. The hard part for me won't be settling for 4" while someone 50 miles E gets 18", I get bummed by missing out on the opportunity to see +SN. No jackpot fetish here, I just like seeing whiteout conditions. The eastern folks can keep their 18-20", just let me get my 4-5" in an hour. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It's definitely going to verify it's just a question of where. What goes up must go down! If you have an area of extreme upward vertical motion you have to have an area of extreme downward vertical motion somewhere. There could be so many localized pockets of subsidence too...what a mess Yeah, and yet sometimes we see things modeled and they kind of wash out in the end. Who knows. Won't pull my hair out either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I am...supposed to fly out to TX too at like 5 AM Friday morning. I might wake up at 6:00 AM and make a snow forecast since I have to do stuff after work and it would be like 10 PM before I could which would be cheating but if I had to do something now...I would maybe do 4-8'' east of the River. I would **** bricks though about the upper end of the range 4-8 too safe here......I get it dude but I'd be at 6-12 I think......#IHateThisStorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said: So the GFS is saying that the entire area of eastern SNE, where all of the models have been putting the axis of heavy precip, is gonna get the squelch? I wouldn't worry about it. Almost certainly wrong. I was focused more on RI into eastern CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said: So the GFS is saying that the entire area of eastern SNE, where all of the models have been putting the axis of heavy precip, is gonna get the squelch? Also, I don't think models in their QPF forecasts take into account such things like subsidence so for areas outside of where heaviest banding would appear to setup its always best to really explore things and see if that QPF makes sense. Models could be better with it though...I know they've improved with depicting things like downslope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 24 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: This was the 18z GFS at 18z Thursday. This is the 700 mb forcing A very nice arcing warm front, with a strong banding signature immediately NW of it. Question, i noticed on the 18z and 0z (gfs runs) that v.v's@7H were Jacked up for a short 3hr period /very transient (over SNE), While V.V's@5H were jacked up for like 10hours over some parts of the area. Is the area just NW of that tremendous lift at 500mb Gonna Experience huge banding or not so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ice1972 said: 4-8 too safe here......I get it dude but I'd be at 6-12 I think......#IHateThisStorm I think we get kinda screwed...I think b/c we are farm from the center we get more band like precip and I think we will be fighting all sorts of subsidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Yes. The placement of that area on the model is incongruent with its area of deformation...its aligned with it. That screw slot should be further west on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Also, I don't think models in their QPF forecasts take into account such things like subsidence ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I think we get kinda screwed...I think b/c we are farm from the center we get more band like precip and I think we will be fighting all sorts of subsidence. Agree....like 3-6"/4-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I think we get kinda screwed...I think b/c we are farm from the center we get more band like precip and I think we will be fighting all sorts of subsidence. The baking powder snow will certainly factor into the so called western "screw zones". Shattered dendrites are sometimes over stated but it's certainly a real factor in a big, wound up coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: The placement of that area on the model is incongruent with its area of deformation...its aligned with it. That screw slot should be further west on that run. yeah I could see that being the case. I think b/c the degree of upward vertical motion is so intense that the gradient between +VV's and -VV's is going to be so small that it will be a difference of several miles from heavy snow and like light snow. Tough for models to really resolve. This could also be a case where even in areas of subsidence you can still rip 1''/HR rates lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 lol Ryans map tonight on air has me right on the line.....2-8 it is.....JFC I hate that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 35 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: This was the 18z GFS at 18z Thursday. This is the 700 mb forcing. A very nice arcing warm front, with a strong banding signature immediately NW of it. As we thought...there's the axis, might be a little west of that more in the TOL-ORH zone, too. E.NE FTMFW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Agree....like 3-6"/4-8". I like 3-6" out here unless models come in even further W overnight. 4-8" for Hartford should certainly be manageable with this system. Kevin is right on the line for the bigger snows depending how this actually plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I think we get kinda screwed...I think b/c we are farm from the center we get more band like precip and I think we will be fighting all sorts of subsidence. I hope you are wrong obviously but all we have to do is get a good band in here and that forecast is busted......it seems like its 50/50.....we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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