MJO812 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The op Euro? Didn’t know anyone was using that which oh by the way is east of 12z The gefs is also way east for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 39 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Yes. "we" will all be working hard to help you achieve this goal. Don't be a miser! With your help, success is possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 3 hours ago, weathafella said: Does anyone have a link for the most up to date MJO forecasts? CPC link is a week old it seems. Going forward ensembles suggest we have a mild period mid to late this week and then again mid next week for a longer spell. The good news is you can already see the beginnning of a better pattern (reload) at the end of the run but it’s like d15 so I wouldn’t take that to the bank, Google: Bureau of meteorology MJO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 3 hours ago, dendrite said: lol at that backdoor oozing in during the weekend storm. Flips ME/NH into a significant icing event. obviously you know this ... but who wouldn't be leery of that being more of an issue farther south. The Euro is clearly to wrapped up too early. I feel the same going the other way for the GFS? However, a third deterministic headache is that the low levels when it comes to nascent polar air wedging from new high pressure is a little unnerving. The ice storm before xmas really spent a few runs with liquid to BTV too - ...just sayn' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 If one takes the GEFs derived teleconnectors verbatim ..sure... we warm up, then winter fights back ...before winter tries to end out there week2+ ... anything beyond that, regardless of source is useless. Haven't seen the EPS values, as those apparently don't get calculated for anyone but the pentaverate .. but I find it interesting that the operational runs seem to be cool relative to the former appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 mmm. the eps mean has the operational run a pretty whoppin' westerly outlier there day 6 ..even has a 'cad' dent to the pressure field ...and given to the fact that the arm of polar high is already stacked into lower ontario by 120 hours, ... that's definitely something to watch. not that anyone isn't - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 56 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: We joke about the Christmas Grinch but honestly MLK weekend is right up there with less than ideal ski days or at least it seems that way the past 10 years. I'm heading out on Wednesday before the rain destroys the skiing. Otis was great yesterday, packed powder everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 57 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: We joke about the Christmas Grinch but honestly MLK weekend is right up there with less than ideal ski days or at least it seems that way the past 10 years. The Grinch doesn't recognize MLK, nor does he have an issue with MLK. There must be some other, deep seated issue here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: I'm heading out on Wednesday before the rain destroys the skiing. Otis was great yesterday, packed powder everywhere. Yeah, i'm going to try and get half-day in at Berkshire East tomorrow. Just ironic we have had decent trail conditions for two weeks but frost bite cold then when we moderate we go warm rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 I haven't looked yet, but is it timing differences resulting in a mean that looks colder than reality? All of the op runs have CAD developing and a high pressure kink to the isobars east of the mtns too. If we can speed up that fropa and get some colder mid-level temps in here I suppose it could get interesting frozen wise. The icing potential is intriguing. Most models are pushing the sfc boundary through in advance of the follow-up wave. The euro starts advecting in the subfreezing sfc air and then promptly cuts it off and shoots 50s right through it into SE NH. I'm not buying that. Once that Maine drain starts kicking in it won't give that easily. It seems our area just wants to ageo flow with this so we may have to watch its acceleration as precip starts wetbulbing into that arctic air lurking in NNE. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: mmm. the eps mean has the operational run a pretty whoppin' westerly outlier there day 6 ..even has a 'cad' dent to the pressure field ...and given to the fact that the arm of polar high is already stacked into lower ontario by 120 hours, ... that's definitely something to watch. not that anyone isn't - Looks like a race. The s/w near the GULF means business. But I think with the first wave exiting stage right quickly with an ensuing -AO, it will open the door for the arctic right as our big storm gets cranking. I think this is setting up for an epic battle of air masses in NNE, with a moisture feed right out of the Gulf. I don't think the incredible QPF amounts being advertised on guidance are overdone--to me its more likely underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Looks like a race. The s/w near the GULF means business. But I think with the first wave exiting stage right quickly with an ensuing -AO, it will open the door for the arctic right as our big storm gets cranking. I think this is setting up for an epic battle of air masses in NNE, with a moisture feed right out of the Gulf. I don't think the incredible QPF amounts being advertised on guidance are overdone--to me its more likely underdone. GFS is 3 inches of qpf in the Adirondacks, 2 of that QPF is in a frozen form. It drives temps down into the teens with ZR or IP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: I haven't looked yet, but is it timing differences resulting in a mean that looks colder than reality? All of the op runs have CAD developing and a high pressure kink to the isobars east of the mtns too. If we can speed up that fropa and get some colder mid-level temps in here I suppose it could get interesting frozen wise. The icing potential is intriguing. Most models are pushing the sfc boundary through in advance of the follow-up wave. The euro starts advecting in the subfreezing sfc air and then promptly cuts it off and shoots 50s right through it into SE NH. I'm not buying that. Once that Maine drain starts kicking in it won't give that easily. It seems our area just wants to ageo flow with this so we may have to watch its acceleration as precip starts wetbulbing into that arctic air lurking in NNE. We'll see. Good points, I agree. It seems more likely the entire complex moves together with the same vector, and our second wave rides along the front with more of an east component, rather than backing into the approaching arctic airmass like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 In sum.. the warm 3 day rainstorm forecasts are in deep trouble.. that goes for all of NE. Euro op being tossed like a Blake Bortles pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Another ice storm for Ray while NE CT melts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Another ice storm for Ray while NE CT melts? Did that happen last time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Did that happen last time? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 46 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Yeah, i'm going to try and get half-day in at Berkshire East tomorrow. Just ironic we have had decent trail conditions for two weeks but frost bite cold then when we moderate we go warm rain. For me it's either Butternut, or Catamount. I might possibly go to West Mtn, never been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 finally, precip made it to CA. Definitely a sign of a pattern change. I wonder how many catastrophic mudslides occur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Tippy said we're getting an ice storm, I'm all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 9 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Tippy said we're getting an ice storm, I'm all in. Wasn't that days ago? Things have changed since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Gfs is flood worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 There going to be a thaw in sne that will damn near wipe the slate clean...clear as day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs is flood worthy Do not want. Keep that low level front down there. GFS is a little late with the CAD this run. Just some trivial icing to end it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Nice flash freeze for the torchy flooded spots Sat night though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There going to be a thaw in sne that will damn near wipe the slate clean...clear as day. Fine with it. I'm done with having to drive around in this and not being able to see where I'm going and risk getting t-boned at intersections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There going to be a thaw in sne that will damn near wipe the slate clean...clear as day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 hours ago, Cold Miser said: The Grinch doesn't recognize MLK, nor does he have an issue with MLK. There must be some other, deep seated issue here. J Edgar Hoover storm? One of my favorite storms was MLK day in 94. We got 17 inches in S. Royalton Vt in short order. Only downside was that my keys fell out of a hole in my jacket pocket while I was crossing the village green. They were not seen again until early May when the last of the snow melted and a housemate spotted them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, klw said: J Edgar Hoover storm? One of my favorite storms was MLK day in 94. We got 17 inches in S. Royalton Vt in short order. Only downside was that my keys fell out of a hole in my jacket pocket while I was crossing the village green. They were not seen again until early May when the last of the snow melted and a housemate spotted them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.