Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 RDM, the weird temp distribution is becuase of the warmer lakes. Take a look at 10m wind plots. The warm bubble is all downstream from wind off the lakes. I have't a clue if the lakes really do that but that's what the gfs is doing. The gfs now picks up UHI in high resolution too. Also does weird things around the Chesapeake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: RDM, the weird temp distribution is becuase of the warmer lakes. Take a look at 10m wind plots. The warm bubble is all downstream from wind off the lakes. I have't a clue if the lakes really do that but that's what the gfs is doing. The gfs now picks up UHI in high resolution too. Also does weird things around the Chesapeake. And has been wrong, which is why I believe LWX has been busting high on my overnight lows all fall/met winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 If anyone is interested in seeing a nice breakdown of the upcoming pattern using GFS numerical guidance, check out this tweet. This will help give a nice visual to what will cause the arctic outbreak setup for the CONUS. Pattern could easily break some records in Northern Plains. Could be dry during heart of cold, but as Bob mentioned, these things usually leave a foot print on the way out when it starts relaxing. You can’t not like what’s on the table beyond Christmas. Would be nice to ring in the new year with an increasingly active setup. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Damn. I just looked at the gefs memebers. Best run by a mile for christmas. We can work with this spread...all we can do is hope it holds and gets better and other models jump on the train. I really hope I eat my words from this weekend when I had a mini meltdown. I wasn't down on the long range. I was just down on the fact that everything was trending for Christmas to suck wx wise. Snow on Christmas is the holy grail of snow weenies. Every year for the last 10 I've been hoping to track something legit and it usually ends up being an obvious shutout at long range. 2010 scarred me for life. This year showed a legit chance and it hooked me. Then 70s started showing up and all models took a dump. Still seems like a big stretch for it to happen but man, it's still close enough to consider the option.... Weird that dec 20-Jan 1 has been a winter wasteland here for a long time. Even in good years seems there is a relax there. Will be interesting if we get an active late December for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Weird that dec 20-Jan 1 has been a winter wasteland here for a long time. Even in good years seems there is a relax there. Will be interesting if we get an active late December for once. Still..the 0z runs could deliver a death blow. No one should rest easy. It could be 30 or 60. Proceed with caution. They have proven to be a fickle beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 28 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: If anyone is interested in seeing a nice breakdown of the upcoming pattern using GFS numerical guidance, check out this tweet. This will help give a nice visual to what will cause the arctic outbreak setup for the CONUS. Pattern could easily break some records in Northern Plains. Could be dry during heart of cold, but as Bob mentioned, these things usually leave a foot print on the way out when it starts relaxing. You can’t not like what’s on the table beyond Christmas. Would be nice to ring in the new year with an increasingly active setup. . Thanks for posting this! I am always interested in reading about atmospheric dynamics. Plus you gave me another good follow on Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 17 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Still..the 0z runs could deliver a death blow. No one should rest easy. It could be 30 or 60. Proceed with caution. They have proven to be a fickle beast. Good news is, all the models have a consensus that the 26th/27th should be cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 I had been watching the MJO forecast over the past couple of weeks. It was never making it into phase 8 a week ago. And the most recent one has it going to phase 8 then possibly into phase 1 towards the first week of January. Pretty decent signal for a coastal if the forecast holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Hmmm. the NAM is looking a little bit interesting for the Wednesday night/Thursday event. Would be white rain. But it is going to get precip up here and 850's look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Hmmm. the NAM is looking a little bit interesting for the Wednesday night/Thursday event. Would be white rain. But it is going to get precip up here and 850's look good. Was just looking at that...vort is stronger than 18z. Maybe we can pull this north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Hmmm. the NAM is looking a little bit interesting for the Wednesday night/Thursday event. Would be white rain. But it is going to get precip up here and 850's look good. Doesn't make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Doesn't make it. Thats what I get for trying to figure out what the NAM is going to do :). Something to keep an eye on still though. A little bit stronger vort and we might see something out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Thats what I get for trying to figure out what the NAM is going to do :). Something to keep an eye on still though. A little bit stronger vort and we might see something out of it. Consensus on that system has been a miss not too far from us. Nothing, except for the 12z Navgem, has shown anything in our back yards, and the 18z Navgem backed down. Looks like the mts. of Southern Va and Wva will do OK. Too bad. Here's hoping for a missing radiosonde. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Some members of the GEFS support the chance of snow. 100 miles North and maybe some sloppy snow accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Can't figure out how to save the trend gif on mobile, but looking at the past 6 or so 12k NAM runs it's easy to see where the Thursday-ish deal is going. Given how much it seems to want to snow this year, I'd be surprised if we don't see flakes out of it in the metro area. Remember that last Friday wasn't given a real chance until the 12z runs on Thursday. Plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Can't figure out how to save the trend gif on mobile, but looking at the past 6 or so 12k NAM runs it's easy to see where the Thursday-ish deal is going. Given how much it seems to want to snow this year, I'd be surprised if we don't see flakes out of it in the metro area. Remember that last Friday wasn't given a real chance until the 12z runs on Thursday. Plenty of time. Same with the Friday before that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 That sw on the NAM just seems to weaken at the wrong time. It’s position looks good. Those do often end up further north. Perhaps it comes a bit stronger and manages a little snow up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 I'm ready to get my hopes destroyed by the 0z GFS. Things have been good for us the past day, after hitting rock bottom on Yesterday's 12z. Hopeful things stay steady for the GFS/GEFS, and that the Euro caves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 We've got the GFS/GEFS/GEPS/EPS, and all we need is for these 0z runs to hold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: We've got the GFS/GEFS/GEPS/EPS, and all we need is for these 0z runs to hold This is different because we are just waiting for a front to clear..,a first for me...usually we are tracking storms... it's an important front though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: This is different because we are just waiting for a front to clear..,a first for me...usually we are tracking storms... it's an important front though... The fact that this GFS could show a major snowstorm (like some of the GEFS members were showing), or that it could show 70 degrees and sun, is truly terrifying and makes me uneasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: The fact that this GFS could show a major snowstorm (like some of the GEFS members were showing), or that it could show 70 degrees and sun, is truly terrifying and makes me uneasy It is just weather... you will wake up in the morning either way... hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 7 minutes ago, Interstate said: It is just weather... you will wake up in the morning either way... hopefully Of course, but for April-October, we don't have the opportunities for this weather (on the most part), so it's all about making the most of it Also, Christmas sucks when it torches as well. That's a biggie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 hours ago, BristowWx said: Still..the 0z runs could deliver a death blow. No one should rest easy. It could be 30 or 60. Proceed with caution. They have proven to be a fickle beast. I said "if" we get an active pattern. And I said I'm excited by the pattern. In the same way you get excited before a big game even though you know your team could lose. I don't think anyone here is taking anything for granted. I've not heard any posts where anyone is counting the snow already. Im not saying this is necessarily about you but there is this constant drum beat of "hold on" "long range is unsure" "don't get your hopes up" "it could change" before any promising pattern sets in. I'm not sure what the point is. No one here is saying we're definitely getting snow. Some are just excited at the prospects of the coming pattern. That's it. Maybe it's real. Maybe not. But this is a long range weather thread populated by mostly snow lovers. So what is it supposed to be in here, 500 posts of "maybe it will snow, maybe not, who knows..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 GFS about the same for the East (a bit of snowflakes in NW suburbs), but cold air North and West of us looks very different. Vs 18z: The cold front did seem slower, but I think the direction the cold drops in does compensate for this. Chilly Christmas as well Storm not fully there, but there's still 5 days for it to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 00z GFS has a storm brewing over TX on the 27th. Major ice storm down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Looking at it, 0z GFS is even colder. Keeps the cold right where we want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 TX ice storm goes on forever this run. WOuldn't doubt it given the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 That's about as close to a foot of ice you'll ever see on a model in TX. That has to be a top 5 fantasy ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 WOW.. Pretty insane. Wouldn't imagine how they'd be able to handle it. 1 month winter break for the kids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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