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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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23 hours ago, frazdaddy said:

Oh I don't know, most of our snow chances are more ligament than legit

I hope we don't have another torn NAO this winter. That is a season-ending condition. 

  • Haha 1

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1 hour ago, jburns said:

I hope we don't have another torn NAO this winter. That is a season-ending condition. 

lol, I see what you did there. It was cold enough last year that we lost all of the big old Pampas grass clumps that lined the driveway entrance. Not sure I've ever seen that.

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7 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Looks like widespread 50s for lows in North Carolina/Virginia by the end of next week.

Man I hope you, and the models, are right.  I am seriously about to lose it over this never ending pattern.  Even 2 or 3 days would suffice right now. 

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Looking hot hot hot next week after this brief cool down. Big ridge showing up on most models but looks drier at least for western areas that have been dealing with flooding. Mid 90s most of the week and possible some upper 90s 

sfct.us_ma.png

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4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Looking hot hot hot next week after this brief cool down. Big ridge showing up on most models but looks drier at least for western areas that have been dealing with flooding. Mid 90s most of the week and possible some upper 90s 

sfct.us_ma.png

It seems that during this time of year, if we get a cool period, Mother Nature makes us pay for it later (with some interest).  

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Euro has the 591-594dm death ridge over us by day 4 and lasts to day 8,probably the hottest weather all summer but the moisture in the ground will help some.

Euro pushes the death ridge west day 9-10 and lower heights come back on latest runs.

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9 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Euro has the 591-594dm death ridge over us by day 4 and lasts to day 8,probably the hottest weather all summer but the moisture in the ground will help some.

Euro pushes the death ridge west day 9-10 and lower heights come back on latest runs.

Lol at the guys on the other forum freaking out on some OP runs of the GFS showing mid 90s for end of Aug/early Sept! GFS ALWAYS has a heat bias in summer, this time of year is not climo for major heat waves (heat yes, but not long sustained heat approaching 100 like they are saying, and those SAME GFS runs are showing significantly cooler temps by labor day. Too funny :rolleyes:

Everyone enjoy the first hint of fall the next couple of days and we'll see more of these in a couple weeks!

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20 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Lol at the guys on the other forum freaking out on some OP runs of the GFS showing mid 90s for end of Aug/early Sept! GFS ALWAYS has a heat bias in summer, this time of year is not climo for major heat waves (heat yes, but not long sustained heat approaching 100 like they are saying, and those SAME GFS runs are showing significantly cooler temps by labor day. Too funny :rolleyes:

Everyone enjoy the first hint of fall the next couple of days and we'll see more of these in a couple weeks!

Last 3 Euro runs haven't been pushing the death ridge out though,actually strengthening it.Euro has it locked at day 10 today to almost Labor day but we'll see,the trend has been for lower heights in the SE most of the summer.

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We had a nice break but it's back to summer. Not sure when the next cool down will occur. Looking at the models, a warm/hot pattern appears to dominate for at least the next ten days. Just like in winter, don't want to speculate on what they show after that...

One thing we do know, fall weather is coming. The question is when. More times than not the summer pattern breaks (for the first "real" autumn front) right after the first week of September. But there are years where a warm pattern hold through a good portion of the month. In years past I've been able to turn my AC off by mid Sept and other years forced to run it into early October.  

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3 hours ago, FallsLake said:

We had a nice break but it's back to summer.

Yep, and the official wording in the AFD this morning for this says...

The WAA return flow will also return the muggies 

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3 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

For all the hype over this week’s return of summer, for the Triad, the 90s last only two to four days. And low 90s at most. It’s hard to say precisely how many 90s because the peak highs will be 89-92, this week. Nothing major, then back into mid 80s by weekend. 

Same here... Fall is beating down the door and winter is coming, there is an insane amount of ice cover in the Artic right now for this time of year (on par with the 1980s)

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1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Same here... Fall is beating down the door and winter is coming, there is an insane amount of ice cover in the Artic right now for this time of year (on par with the 1980s)

Are you sure about that? I'm all for fall coming early, but according to the NSIDC current arctic ice cover is quite a bit lower than the 80s, in fact almost 2 million square kilometers lower than even the lowest extent year on this date in the 80s...

Ice Cover.png

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12 hours ago, Belakay said:

Are you sure about that? I'm all for fall coming early, but according to the NSIDC current arctic ice cover is quite a bit lower than the 80s, in fact almost 2 million square kilometers lower than even the lowest extent year on this date in the 80s...

Ice Cover.png

Whoops, was looking at the wrong year on the graph that has everyone since 78 how did you get it to zoom?

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But....plenty of early season snow across the north-western high country!  Seeing snow all over Wyoming, Idaho region.  Never too early to lay down a good snow pack here in the states.

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8 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

But....plenty of early season snow across the north-western high country!  Seeing snow all over Wyoming, Idaho region.  Never too early to lay down a good snow pack here in the states.

This is where the summer pattern tends to breakdown first. If anybody is going to see early snow it's the north Rocky Mountain folks (Glacier NP down to Yellowstone). 

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Yep, hot and very little rain.  Don't want to start getting too dry and screw up our soil moisture variable for the winter!  We need a couple of good land-falling tropical systems.

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