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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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19 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

It has been a constant flow of systems to track. 

Great winter so far and my expectations were real low heading into this winter.

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5 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Great winter so far and my expectations were real low heading into this winter.

Front-end load of snow your way and now COLD weather. Yup. I got 2 1/2 out of December and looking for more.  But yes, I did not think we would roll the cold like we have over the last few days. 

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I actually like the look of the Monday storm.  With the dampening shortwave I could easily see the surface low jumping from central Alabama to the Georgia coast, thus strengthening,(or as a result of), the insitu-wedge...

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1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Canadian ICE map... yikes 

zr_acc.us_ma (1).png

You won't be hearing much from anyone along the I-85 corridor is SC if this was to happen. All of us would be without power.

  • Haha 2

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7 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I actually like the look of the Monday storm.  With the dampening shortwave I could easily see the surface low jumping from central Alabama to the Georgia coast, thus strengthening,(or as a result of), the insitu-wedge...

This will be an Arctic cold airnass, albeit stale, but with DPs in single digits and temps around 30, if we time it right, could be really bad!

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19 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I actually like the look of the Monday storm.  With the dampening shortwave I could easily see the surface low jumping central Alabama to the Georgia coast, thus strengthening,(or as a result of), the insitu-wedge...

yeah i think this one has real potential. This is a pretty good setup for it to over perform and hang on a while.. Despite the cold source being cutoff and latent heat release, looking at gfs soundings the cold pool would be deep enough and cold enough to result in a prolonged period of subfreezing temps....long enough for some likely good accumulations. The good news is that this one likely won't get squashed by the pattern unlike the last few systems/potential systems. It seems the biggest chance of a bust would be if it is slower/further north and comes in later monday to give temps time to moderate. But this mornings runs are a bit quicker and further south...and overall there is very good agreement. 

temps/dewpoints/wetbulbs are more than cold enough. new 12z euro is absurd with it's dewpoints.....0 to -5F over ga 0z monday and -5 to -15  over the carolinas. euro starts everyone off in the 20s prior to precip arrival. euro is dropping 0.6 over nc to nearly an inch over north ga. 

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7 minutes ago, Lookout said:

yeah i think this one has real potential. This is a pretty good setup for it to over perform and hang on a while.. Despite the cold source being cutoff and latent heat release, looking at gfs soundings the cold pool would be deep enough and cold enough to result in a prolonged period of subfreezing temps....long enough for some likely good accumulations. The good news is that this one likely won't get squashed by the pattern unlike the last few systems/potential systems. It seems the biggest chance of a bust would be if it is slower/further north and comes in later monday to give temps time to moderate. But this mornings runs are a bit quicker and further south...and overall there is very good agreement. 

temps/dewpoints/wetbulbs are more than cold enough. new 12z euro is absurd with it's dewpoints.....0 to -5F over ga 0z monday and -5 to -15  over the carolinas. euro starts everyone off in the 20s prior to precip arrival. euro is dropping 0.6 over nc to nearly an inch over north ga. 

But ice instead of snow? What are 850s, 925s looking like? 

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3 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

But ice instead of snow? What are 850s, 925s looking like? 

Would be sleet to ice for the upstate

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Just now, griteater said:

Jan to date plus 7 day GFS forecast

ZyKPNEQ.png

It's going to be really difficult to dig out of the hole we're going to create. 

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

I think the best you could hope for would be a little snow or sleet at onset, but definitely an icy set up

This is definitely our storm, my spider senses are tingling. I'm not worried about cold air, it's the QPF going UP that worries me.

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GSP not too impressed at this point. Says nuisance event for Monday morning before becoming all rain by midday when bulk of precip arrives. Needs to come in a day earlier when it's still cold, but of course it won't. I guess I have to move the CHS now to see snow...

 

The current forecast has highs
still only in the 30s with temps allowed to drop into the 20s Sunday
evening. Looking at the partial thickness p-type nomograms for the
three medium range models, there is decent agreement on any precip
developing overnight being a mixed bag of snow, sleet and freezing
rain across anywhere it reaches the ground in the CWFA. With PoPs
ramping up overnight, I expect at least a nuisance ice/light snow
event. At this point, it looks like WAA should gradually transition
p-types to all rain by midday Monday (at the time of heaviest precip
rates). With that said, using consensus temps and timing of PoPs,
I do get some likely wintry p-type with light accums before daybreak
Monday. This is especially a concern for the mountains. I will plan
to add a mention of winter weather possible for Monday in the HWO.

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EURO shows pretty nasty icing, especially NWNC and VA.. More than nuisance level for sure and its trending better.. We will see... The bomb heading up the East coast could help act as a 50/50 low and keep our cold air entrenched longer.. Probably why models are showing further south solutions

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If I were GSP, I wouldn't dare say anything about a big ice storm atm. With the way models have handled events this year, I'd be scared to say anything until 48 hours out at the most.

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^^^^^

Trust me, that's really bold for them, and they left room to escalate the event! But I don't know how many times I've heard 

" temps will warm above freezing by noon" and they never do. And if it trends 6-12 hours ahead of current predicted time, would be a bad situation!

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Guys,

I haven't even remotely followed this event yet. Been so entertained by my family in Charleston and Ladson/Summerville area getting plastered. What does qpf look like for the general region?

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4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Guys,

I haven't even remotely followed this event yet. Been so entertained by my family in Charleston and Ladson/Summerville area getting plastered. What does qpf look like for the general region?

QPF looks pretty good. Generally .5 to .7 for most, possible more.. especially upstate and WNC

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6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

QPF looks pretty good. Generally .5 to .7 for most, possible more.. especially upstate and WNC

Wow VERY nice! Lets do it! Will begin my journey into this upcoming storm and start assessing the model suites as they come out. Talk to everyone soon.

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This thing kicks off at the time and temperature the canadian thinks it will, the entire city is going to be a skating rink. 

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