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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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Let. The. Pattern. Change. Happen. 

Everything before the second week of Feb is just a bonus. Some of y'all gotta stop whining or move to the sanitarium. 

Shortest long term AFD? AKQ does not even mention the possibility for wintry precip on Friday

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry with a warming trend Wed and Thurs as the high pushes offshore.
Cold Tues nite with lows in the upr teens-mid 20s. Highs Wed in the
upr 30s-lwr 40s. Lows Wed nite in the upr 20s-lwr 30s. Highs Thurs
in the 50s.

Next cold front crosses the area Friday. Warm enough for pcpn to be
rain before anthr shot of arctic air moves in for next weekend.
Highs Fri in the 50s.

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CAE NWS latest output

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
After maybe a few lingering light sprinkles early in the
morning Monday, drier and cooler air will once again return to
the area through Wednesday as high pressure at the surface
dominates. By Thursday the upper pattern flattens out and then
turns more southwesterly once again ahead of the next rain
maker. This next front is expected to cross the region Thursday
night and Friday. Temperatures cool through Tuesday, then
gradually warm, and return to near or above normal by Thursday.
Colder air will move in behind the front Friday night. There is
a lot of uncertainty at this point, but if enough moisture
lingers into Saturday morning, there could be some light snow to
the north. Have kept mention out of the forecast for now.

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Just looking at the 12z 2m GEFS run shows a dominant SER all the way to Feb. 7th, then cold takes over. Will trend colder due to CAD I believe but overall look is way better than the 6z suite.

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The AO (not NAO, look at your N Hemi Ens maps) in the 7-14 range should be a good representation of do we keep the PV in Central CA, or does a dominant lobe break off and exit stage right over southern Greenland.   The MJO amplitude in mid phase 5 may not put us in to the holly grail days 14+, rather a de-amplification in phase 7 vs a high push in to phase 8.

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1 hour ago, SteveVa said:

Let. The. Pattern. Change. Happen. 

Everything before the second week of Feb is just a bonus. Some of y'all gotta stop whining or move to the sanitarium. 

Shortest long term AFD? AKQ does not even mention the possibility for wintry precip on Friday

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry with a warming trend Wed and Thurs as the high pushes offshore.
Cold Tues nite with lows in the upr teens-mid 20s. Highs Wed in the
upr 30s-lwr 40s. Lows Wed nite in the upr 20s-lwr 30s. Highs Thurs
in the 50s.

Next cold front crosses the area Friday. Warm enough for pcpn to be
rain before anthr shot of arctic air moves in for next weekend.
Highs Fri in the 50s.

There is nothing before the 2nd week of February and no person or model can predict even the large scale weather pattern farther out than that. 

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

We have about as much of a chance at getting a snowy last half of Feb, as the Tarheels have of beating State! :(

Capture.JPG.068c59d0259f27261bf5f32b46bd1f77.JPG

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2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

No, I'll never forget 2014 Feb storm. Euro snow map showed me getting 20" 2 days out, got 2" of sleet, it was awesome 

Likely a stock 10:1 snow flag, no more than weenie click bait, you over-performed. 

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2 hours ago, burrel2 said:

There is nothing before the 2nd week of February and no person or model can predict even the large scale weather pattern farther out than that. 

Hmm, surprised you would say that. Should be able to take ENSO + MJO and some model weeklies (EURO/CFS/JMA) to pump out large scale pattern ideas for weeks 3-4

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7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

No, I'll never forget 2014 Feb storm. Euro snow map showed me getting 20" 2 days out, got 2" of sleet, it was awesome 

I would have agreed with your memory as we only got 4" of snow and sleet that evening but then hit the jackpot with the UL deformation band that sat on us all the following morning to pile on a very fast 8" of additional snow.  Too bad once the UL pulled out it, the temps shot up and melted most of it away that day.

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10 minutes ago, Wow said:

I would have agreed with your memory as we only got 4" of snow and sleet that evening but then hit the jackpot with the UL deformation band that sat on us all the following morning to pile on a very fast 8" of additional snow.  Too bad once the UL pulled out it, the temps shot up and melted most of it away that day.

I remember getting a Thundersnow on that one! The flakes were SO HUGE! Ended up with 12' of snow total. Great storm, thanks to the Deformation band that formed over us!!

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55 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

No, I'll never forget 2014 Feb storm. Euro snow map showed me getting 20" 2 days out, got 2" of sleet, it was awesome 

Im with Mack, it looked like the storm of the century for us but ended up being a status quo event

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1 hour ago, Wow said:

I would have agreed with your memory as we only got 4" of snow and sleet that evening but then hit the jackpot with the UL deformation band that sat on us all the following morning to pile on a very fast 8" of additional snow.  Too bad once the UL pulled out it, the temps shot up and melted most of it away that day.

The funny thing is, in fort mill, we ended up with most of our snow that first morning

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3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

We have about as much of a chance at getting a snowy last half of Feb, as the Tarheels have of beating State! :(

This is why I don't watch every model run and only listen to the professionals.   ;) also I have always been a Virginia fan and we beat UNC and Duke at Duke.

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13 minutes ago, POWERSTROKE said:

This is why I don't watch every model run and only listen to the professionals.   ;) also I have always been a Virginia fan and we beat UNC and Duke at Duke.

That should be Puke at Duke.  :D

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29 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

You know it’s a boring pattern when all we got is past storms and basketball. :(

Yes, but the basketball was fabulous today :)

 

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2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

No, I'll never forget 2014 Feb storm. Euro snow map showed me getting 20" 2 days out, got 2" of sleet, it was awesome 

was this the same storm that Robert predicted chunks of ice falling from the sky and roof collapses on I85 corridor?

I've never seen so much sleet in my life - I think I received a little snow at the onset then 3-4 inches of pure sleet - great sledding!

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6 hours ago, griteater said:

Hmm, surprised you would say that. Should be able to take ENSO + MJO and some model weeklies (EURO/CFS/JMA) to pump out large scale pattern ideas for weeks 3-4

Sure, 

I mean it's fun to speculate and all, but honestly when you look in to all that information for a greater than 2 week lead time, it is just that, speculating.

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20 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Sure, 

I mean it's fun to speculate and all, but honestly when you look in to all that information for a greater than 2 week lead time, it is just that, speculating.

I hear ya, it IS speculation, but I just think there are times that we can have some success with forecasting the large scale pattern using educated guesses

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