NCSNOW Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Look at that Wake county cutoff again. I think that's hard coded into the models. On the other hand, it seems to be hard coded into real life too. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Look at that Wake county cutoff again. I think that's hard coded into the models. On the other hand, it seems to be hard coded into real life too. Pretty sure the other day you said the pattern looked like doo doo and couldn't see anything happening in next 2 weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 14 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Look at that Wake county cutoff again. I think that's hard coded into the models. On the other hand, it seems to be hard coded into real life too. If (If IF IF) this event happens, our area could easily be the jackpot. These types of systems can benefit anybody in the Piedmont down to the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 25 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Pretty sure the other day you said the pattern looked like doo doo and couldn't see anything happening in next 2 weeks? Correct. I didn't see anything happening, and the pattern still looks like doo doo. But they just brought out a taco pizza; sometimes you just have to eat what's on the buffet! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, FallsLake said: If (If IF IF) this event happens, our area could easily be the jackpot. These types of systems can benefit anybody in the Piedmont down to the coast. Yeah, that's right. I would not expect such a rapid decline in precip as you head east, unless the system is moving strongly SW to NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 As others have alluded to, maybe we are finally starting to see the worm turn in regards to the NAO. Outside of us getting a widespread SE big dog, it has been a rather remarkable winter so far. It went BN in November and has remained BN so far through January. Add in the Pre Christmas snow and the beach snowstorm plus 7 days IMBY below freezing and it has been an interesting couple of months. I would like to see a widespread SE winter storm since we have not seen one of those in a while. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Correct. I didn't see anything happening, and the pattern still looks like doo doo. But the just brought out a taco pizza; sometimes you just have to eat what's on the buffet! Haha! Dam classic! I don't know why it's so hilarious ! I'll sit there an hour though eating on the cheeseburger pizza with pickles, or buffalo chicken, and the cinnamon nut strudel tho! Just waiting on more model support. I mean we got Euro and Navegem, but be nice for the GFS and CMC to get on board. And see what the NAM says in a day or two! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 32 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Look at that Wake county cutoff again. I think that's hard coded into the models. On the other hand, it seems to be hard coded into real life too. Just chase to my place. My little micro climate seems to come through a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 9 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Haha! Dam classic! I don't know why it's so hilarious ! I'll sit there an hour though eating on the cheeseburger pizza with pickles, or buffalo chicken, and the cinnamon nut strudel tho! Just waiting on more model support. I mean we got Euro and Navegem, but be nice for the GFS and CMC to get on board. And see what the NAM says in a day or two! The one near my house tends to get in a rut and put out the same weird veggie pizza with olives at like a 3:1 ratio to other pizzas. Anyway, yeah, I'd like to see the GFS show something and maybe the UK. At least, The Torch™ hasn't looked too torchy lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: Just chase to my place. My little micro climate seems to come through a lot. Yeah man, you did pretty well with that last one. You should be good for at least 6" during the next one. It's a step up process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah man, you did pretty well with that last one. You should be good for at least 6" during the next one. It's a step up process. If you go back and look at past storms for some reason the area around my place lollipops a lot. Convergence of the Haw and the Deep rivers and being a mile from Jordan lake dam I guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: If you go back and look at past storms for some reason the area my place lollipops a lot. Convergence of the Haw and the Deep rivers and being a mile from Jordan lake dam I guess? I've seen Chatham County setup with the best radar returns many times in the past. Not just with snow but rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I've seen Chatham County setup with the best radar returns many times in the past. Not just with snow but rain. Yepp, I should have added that. I'm on the line where the hump in the pan handle is a couple of miles off US1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 11 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: The one near my house tends to get in a rut and put out the same weird veggie pizza with olives at like a 3:1 ratio to other pizzas. Anyway, yeah, I'd like to see the GFS show something and maybe the UK. At least, The Torch™ hasn't looked too torchy lately. Ours ask you when you walk in, is there any special pizzas y'all would like us to make? And will make any combination you think of! It's great. How did the eps look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 EPS with trend toward increased western and eastern Canada ridging...associated squeeze play is trending the trough more to the southwest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 55 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: The one near my house tends to get in a rut and put out the same weird veggie pizza with olives at like a 3:1 ratio to other pizzas. Anyway, yeah, I'd like to see the GFS show something and maybe the UK. At least, The Torch™ hasn't looked too torchy lately. Looking a little dry right now but hopefully that will change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Wow grit. Like the eps going from- "oh I was just all wrong back there at 240 but *this* is how it's really gonna look come Weds" edit: You think its done yet with the SW trend? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 42 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Ours ask you when you walk in, is there any special pizzas y'all would like us to make? And will make any combination you think of! It's great. How did the eps look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Hey CR. Any way to get a little Leeside trough action out of this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 The problem with this potential event is we're depending on a clipper and then last minute coastal development. I'm not sure any models will be able to give us a good idea of what eventually happens up to go time. There will most likely be flip flops for each model run. The ensembles may be the best tool to follow for this particular type of event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Ours ask you when you walk in, is there any special pizzas y'all would like us to make? And will make any combination you think of! It's great. How did the eps look?Y'all gotta stop with Pizza Inn references. Gonna make me take a freaking road trip to Little Washington just to quench an urge.Last run of the Euro had a few members with decent hits for eastern NC. I counted like 13 out of 50 members. At least half showed something for eastern sections with a few big dogs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 21 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Wow grit. Like the eps going from- "oh I was just all wrong back there at 240 but *this* is how it's really gonna look come Weds" edit: You think its done yet with the SW trend? Don't know, but it's one of those deals where we can't afford any reversal of the trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 EURO may be on to something but this type of setup does not favor areas from roughly GSP to Mount Airy. Going to say I disagree with it digging south-west to bring moisture to the TN border. Borderline areas to watch would be Charlotte to the Piedmont Triad and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 14 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Hey CR. Any way to get a little Leeside trough action out of this one? Not sure the conditions with this system are going to be supportive of that. We're seemingly mostly relying on the moisture associated with a strong clipper, although the LW trough is a bit sharper than you normally see with clippers (which I guess is the reason we're even talking snow potential here). If we are lucky enough to see the SW trend continue, we may sneak the coastal a little closer in. That would be especially good for eastern sections and may act to augment moisture transport into the area. Kind of a tricky setup, as Falls noted below. 14 minutes ago, FallsLake said: The problem with this potential event is we're depending on a clipper and then last minute coastal development. I'm not sure any models will be able to give us a good idea of what eventually happens up to go time. There will most likely be flip flops for each model run. The ensembles may be the best tool to follow for this particular type of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Was just looking at the Euro ensembles from last night. Most hits seem to favor a coastal centered on areas from Raleigh to Greensboro. Not all were hits, of course, but there were a lot of them. It's very possible we see two coastal snow bombs only a couple weeks apart. Or it's also very possible we see nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 GFS is trending towards the EURO.. (shocker) Sending the energy and trough more to the SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: GFS is trending towards the EURO.. (shocker) Sending the energy and trough more to the SW Yeah 12z is very Euro looking. It's a nice pass of the 5h vort max. Colder than the Euro too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 well this is certainly an improvement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 SV crude clown map has 4-6 inches over central and eastern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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