kpantz Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Comparing 96h Euro to 84h NAM, they're not all that far off. The downstream vortex is further west on the NAM, but the upstream ridge is similarly positioned. Similar sloppy phase look in the midwest at 500mb. Adding another observation. I like the Euro's evolution of the northern stream vortmax digging into the southern trough better than the NAM, as least as far as getting this thing to bomb out is concerned. Seems like the NAM wouldn't really buckle and deepen the 500mb system like the Euro has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Comparing 96h Euro to 84h NAM, they're not all that far off. The downstream vortex is further west on the NAM, but the upstream ridge is similarly positioned. Similar sloppy phase look in the midwest at 500mb. KPANTEEZ HOWDY it's a capture LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION is the key http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znam500mbvortNAMLoop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Once again, the NAM looks mostly like the Euro at the end of its run. That is all we can take from this. Saying it would go out to sea if it ran longer is silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyS Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 W-NOAM ridge more amplified/further west via ECMWF, so southern stream disturbance is faster and further east on NAM. It also appears the the pseudo 50/50 low is displaced significantly to the south via the 12Z NAM, and not allowing heights to rise along the eastern seaboard. Finally the CAA into the trough is not as significant as the ECMWF, so the trough does not appear it will deepen/close off at H5 as fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Once again, the NAM looks mostly like the Euro at the end of its run. That is all we can take from this. Saying it would go out to sea if it ran longer is silly. Odds are it still would given around 37 of the 50 Euro members are a miss for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Comparing 96h Euro to 84h NAM, they're not all that far off. The downstream vortex is further west on the NAM, but the upstream ridge is similarly positioned. Similar sloppy phase look in the midwest at 500mb. Surface depiction on the 12z NAM at 84 hours is very lackluster and I don't think it matches up with the pattern aloft. In any case, I don't really care about the NAM, storm or no storm. What we need is a significant move from the GFS and UKMET today towards the Euro and GGEM, even if there is some sort of compromise between the two. The s/w will be ashore later tonight (I believe), so 12z and 00z runs today will be extremely important. BTW, the Euro makes this a sunday into monday event correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Surface depiction on the 12z NAM at 84 hours is very lackluster and I don't think it matches up with the pattern aloft. In any case, I don't really care about the NAM, storm or no storm. What we need is a significant move from the GFS and UKMET today towards the Euro and GGEM, even if there is some sort of compromise between the two. The s/w will be ashore later tonight (I believe), so 12z and 00z runs today will be extremely important. BTW, the Euro makes this a sunday into monday event correct? correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Here's the comparison from yesterdays 12Z run. Not an expert whatsoever on confluence but doesn't today's run show it starting to break it down on the east coast compared to yesterday? Thought I heard mentioned at some point that would be a good thing if we were looking for a good storm? Anyway, all and all I like the look better then what we had yesterday. With the heights rising in the east and the stronger ridge out west though maybe a little to far east still to keep the storm on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 the NAM doesn't look like the Euro at all imo, compare the 12z nam at 84 to the 0z euro at 96.... ridge is less sharp, will be less amplification because of this trough axis is further east and not digging as much and it's not neutrally tilted like the 0z euro at the same also, way more confluence on the NAM. North atlantic low is slow to get out. it would probably look like the GFS if extrapolated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The ridging in Canada is actually a little similar to last night's Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hobbes9 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Once again, the NAM looks mostly like the Euro at the end of its run. That is all we can take from this. Saying it would go out to sea if it ran longer is silly. Not sure how much to trust it, but isn't the DGEX doing just that? Last run I thought I saw a complete whiff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBRE Wx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Once again, the NAM looks mostly like the Euro at the end of its run. That is all we can take from this. Saying it would go out to sea if it ran longer is silly. I think there are some massive differences at 500mb that make a huge difference in the outcome... they are hundreds of miles apart on the storm over the Atlantic and the northern stream shortwave coming south out of Canada... Wisconsin vs. Dakotas! Of course we can all take heart that it is the NAM and it is at 84 hours. I lean heavily towards the Euro here in its superior positioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Not sure how much to trust it, but isn't the DGEX doing just that? Last run I thought I saw a complete whiff? Its nice to see it be near the Euro at 84 hours but given how much the NAM is very frequently poor at that range I'm not sure how much we can believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Comparing 96h Euro to 84h NAM, they're not all that far off. The downstream vortex is further west on the NAM, but the upstream ridge is similarly positioned. Similar sloppy phase look in the midwest at 500mb. its actually a good sign ..and the NAM usually isnt that great at 84 so there would be room for improvement in later runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hobbes9 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 it's using the GFS physics though. It's not exactly the NAM extrapolated. AHH. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Once again, the NAM looks mostly like the Euro at the end of its run. That is all we can take from this. Saying it would go out to sea if it ran longer is silly. Yes, especially since last night as the Euro ran out to 84-104 hours everyone was clamoring "it's out to sea, Euro folds" ... until it didn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I think there are some massive differences at 500mb that make a huge difference in the outcome... they are hundreds of miles apart on the storm over the Atlantic and the northern stream shortwave coming south out of Canada... Wisconsin vs. Dakotas! Of course we can all take heart that it is the NAM and it is at 84 hours. I lean heavily towards the Euro here in its superior positioning. Normally I would agree but it's supported by absolutely nothing, not even its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 NAM out to sea probably not but I also don't think it's pointing to an EC scenario either. There's a lot of energy still coming down into the trough, I'm wondering if this is a situation that becomes a mainly Mid/Atl south storm or out to sea as the two main options. RE, not sure I buy the earlier GGEM/EC depictions. In any case can't blame the models for the mayhem, very complex situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Normally I would agree but it's supported by absolutely nothing, not even its ensembles. It does have ensemble support, but it is near the western edge of the spread. Seeing the ensemble mean SE of the operational is not unusual and doesn't always mean the op is out to lunch. It might be signaling a small correction, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 quickly, the largest changes that I see between 12z and 0z... compare the jet streak orientation between 72hr 12z vs 84hr 0z....upstream of the trough I saw the same thing, maybe an insignificant detail though. The trough is also oriented differently, and the jet at 84h looks interesting too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It does have ensemble support, but it is near the western edge of the spread. Seeing the ensemble mean SE of the operational is not unusual and doesn't always mean the op is out to lunch. It might be signaling a small correction, though. However more than half (in fact 75%) of its ensembles were a miss. That's ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBRE Wx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Normally I would agree but it's supported by absolutely nothing, not even its ensembles. I haven't seen the individual Euro ensembles... just the mean. Cisco down at HPC overnight said a number of individual members did support the operational. I'm going on their word. And all I really meant by that is I lean heavily towards the Euro on an 84 hour forecast at 500mb than I would the NAM at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Looking ahead to the 12z gfs, here are the forecasted primary low tracks from the previous four runs, for reference: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 i dont like the way the NAM is splitting the northern shortwave around 36-48 hours... not sure whats accounting for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Have you taken over for Colin? I'm not canceling the threat, just saying that the EURO is not supported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBRE Wx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It was posted here by another met that 37/50 members were a miss. Without seeing them I don't know what that means... A miss for who? Everyone? New England? Raleigh? DC? Philly? Hazleton? All I'm saying is there is some support. Not unanimous, but some. There are a few GFS Ensembles supporting the western track too. Not unanimous by any stretch, but some. edit - meant to say "majority" not unanimous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 There is also a chance the euro holds and the ensembles agree. Who knows. Is the s/w over the conus yet? I really expected the 00z euro to fold last night and was stunned when it didn't I believe on the radio show last night they said the s/w would be sampled either this afternoon or tonight. So 00z runs tonight or 12z tomorrow will have good data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBRE Wx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 There is also a chance the euro holds and the ensembles agree. Who knows. Is the s/w over the conus yet? I really expected the 00z euro to fold last night and was stunned when it didn't Southern stream will be fully in tomorrow morning's 12z. Unfortunately all the northern stream interaction stuff won't be fully in until Christmas Day probably! I'd like to have our forecast committed one way or the other by Thursday evening since no one watches TV news 12/24 or 12/25! That's the scary thing for us with this storm! The holiday and media blackout make us have to go with something two days sooner than I want! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GFS is starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 People are still focusing on the wrong thing here, its the energy in the gulf that the Euro keeps more compace and amplifies that allows this thing to become a monster. It is very similar to all other models with the trough axis and even timing now. Its that the euro keys on the stj energy and really amps up the low in the gulf allowing a sharper turn and bomb it up the coast. Other models are keying on the northern stream and washing out the stj energy. This has the storm take a wider turn with not as much digging. Its the developments in the gulf that make the difference and unfortunately in that regard the NAM is still closer to the GFS/UKMET/GGEM then it is the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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