tornadojay Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Through 30 hours, I've been comparing the 12Z GFS with the 06Z GFS at 500 mb, and so far, everything is the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Already some differences showing between the GFS and NAM at 24 hrs with amplification of the vort and ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Hey all. A plea from a lurker. Can folks that are not red-tagged or not giving model info take the chatter to another thread? I think that is in keeping with the request from Stormtracker et al. Thanks. The analysis on the model runs today is crucial for a lot of us making travel plans, and being able to read the analysis without what people "think" based on nothing more than gut would be awesome. Well put....would also like to point out that everyone can reduce the "clutter" posts...both by thinking about what they are posting...if it adds value or has already been stated...and for those getting annoyed at the chatter PLEASE REPORT any clutter/chatter/worthless posts by using the report button. Back to our regularly scheduled 12z thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Through 42 hours... all major features compared to 06Z GFS look the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GFS coming in stronger with the northern stream energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 At 48 hours, I am noticing some slight differences. I will mention them, but will not try to infer how that might eventually change the run.. I'll just state them verbatim. The shortwave over texas is slightly west. The northern stream energy is slightly stronger and further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 northern stream dropping in at 48 better than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 at hour 54, the wave over texas is now in the same position as it was at 06Z, however, as noted before, I do see more energy in the northern stream this time. There is a nice piece of energy located over central Nebraska. The closed low in the north atlantic is roughly in the same spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 at hour 60, the northern stream vort max is much stronger than last run and is located southwest of the previous run, located over northeastern Kansas. I view this change as a pretty significant one. You can see it pretty easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 going to miss the phase, northern energy too strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Odds are it still would given around 37 of the 50 Euro members are a miss for most. How would the number of Euro ensembles showing a miss help us extrapolate the operational NAM? Not trying to be a wiseguy, just trying to understand what you meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 hr 60 more northern stream, more ridging on the east coast, big atl low slighlty further NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The euro/gfs side talk (great discussion mets!) have been split to this thread Lets use this thread to focus on the current 12z runs and analysis of them. Thanks all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 less confluence ahead of the wave...look at the H5 fields over the OH Valley or look at the shape of the H7 RH field at 54h southern stream a little further south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 at 60h....over the MA...H5 flow is now WSW instead of NW at 0z 72h.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 at 78, the northern stream energy is stronger and further south and west.. the shortwave over texas grew weaker and a bit further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The differances this run are once again great. Look at H5. 6Z 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBRE Wx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 ok now low in Atlantic looks to start moving along nicely between 36 and 48 hours... getting out of way in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 at 87, it is just a completely different solution.. but I can say it looks very positive and I'll just let this play out and let others comment on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 at 78, the northern stream energy is stronger and further south and west.. the shortwave over texas grew weaker and a bit further south. Sounds like its killing the southern s/w again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Definitely trying to phase at 78 in a farther west location than 0z...this run still might not do it but it'll be closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Still seems ahead of the euro and last night GGEM by a good 6 or more hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 1012 low near JAX at 90...trying to turn the corner... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 it's definitely a huge step in the right direction. It will undoubtedly come much closer to the coast this time. This looks like a positive step in GFS land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Out through 90 is MUCH better....like others have said..might not do it, but there is a clear trend west and better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBRE Wx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Energy slamming into West Coast at 90h is troubling... trying to keep things progressive. But GFS does tend to rush those troughs in out there. But setup from central plains east is much better than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 much closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Sounds like its killing the southern s/w again Here it comes at 102!!!right off hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Definitely trying to phase at 78 in a farther west location than 0z...this run still might not do it but it'll be closer. At 90, definetly a phase, while on the 6z it is not there in the same timeframe...even my totally weenie eyes can see that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 lol, look at it vs 6z and 0z ...the H5 flow is crazy different. Wow. This is a HUGE step toward the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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