JerseyWx Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said: I used to do a poll years ago where I'd ask ' Would you rather jackpot with 8", or get 10" with someone nearby jackpotting with 16'? The vote went 2-1 for the 8". I gotta tell ya, if I'm being honest, I would go with the former too, and I think it's simply about expectations rather than jealousy. This last storm crystallized something else too -- I don't know much, nothing technical in fact, about subsidence, but I know that a dynamic system with lots of it is going to have a high standard deviation with regard to amounts. Thus, the more exciting the system, the greater the likelihood of mass disappointment. One last thing, I agree with the posters like myself who lived through the 80s. We would go years and years without being in the 6-12, and even I've been spoiled by the last 15+ years where I come to expect 12". How would anyone who's grown up in the 2000s/2010s *not* be disappointed with less than 6"? In the 80s I would be thrilled i I was in the 3-6 (the bright white in the TWC maps.) When you really look at it, humans are the only species that compete over who got more frozen precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 hour ago, JerseyWx said: When you really look at it, humans are the only species that compete over who got more frozen precipitation. If dogs had internet access they would Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 hours ago, North and West said: What do you think the reason for this is? I’ve followed Capital Weather Gang for years, and it’s either feast or famine there. (Famine more often than not, considering their geographic situation) . They really need a Nino pattern with a loaded subtropical jet and blocking like what existed in 09-10. They just don’t do well in Nina years, where the northern stream dominates and late developing Miller B type storms are common, or cutters. Also we haven’t had help from the NAO in recent years. We are far enough northeast to take advantage of all the later developing coastal storms we’ve been seeing. The longitude helps-remember the 1/4 storm snow swath was NNE to SSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 12 minutes ago, BxEngine said: If dogs had internet access they would Lol, I really do wonder about the cognitive abilities of other animals. BTW, this storm was very close to falling on the 25th anniversary of the '93 Superstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 If posts are disappearimg in this thread its a glitch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: If posts are disappearimg in this thread its a glitch Matrix-ing up in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 9 hours ago, jm1220 said: They really need a Nino pattern with a loaded subtropical jet and blocking like what existed in 09-10. They just don’t do well in Nina years, where the northern stream dominates and late developing Miller B type storms are common, or cutters. Also we haven’t had help from the NAO in recent years. We are far enough northeast to take advantage of all the later developing coastal storms we’ve been seeing. The longitude helps-remember the 1/4 storm snow swath was NNE to SSW. Great post! I wonder which factor ENSO state or blocking (orientation and magnitude) plays a greater role. I remember seeing a thread in their subforum discussing this topic some time ago. I went to law school down in DC from 2010 to 2013. As an extreme weather enthusiast, it was an incredibly frustrating place to be, save for some extreme heat. Even severe T-Storm lines have a tendency to split before reaching the city. Apparently there's some topography-related theory that accounts for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Does yanksfan or whatever his username is now still post here? What about PT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Nice little snow pack refresher up here late last night into early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: Nice little snow pack refresher up here late last night into early this morning. How much did it puke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: How much did it puke? It was really ripping out there for about 25 seconds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveTinNY Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Had a dusting on my driveway when I left for work at 5:45am. Nada in Dutchess County. Roads were dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 I’m going to bust out my weather controlling tool and push Monday’s event north. Let’s see if it works. Euro should be north if it works and all the other models soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: I’m going to bust out my weather controlling tool and push Monday’s event north. Let’s see if it works. Euro should be north if it works and all the other models soon None for me thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: None for me thanks In my opinion this is a dc and south chance for some snow unless my tools works. It was programmed to bring this a tucked 980 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Need lots of improvements. H5 is a jumbled mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 20 hours ago, snywx said: No way!! but but the HV isn't part of the NYC metro. Only east of the boros Some really have unrealistic expectations. I know the climatology of my immediate area and NYC and never thought that the chances of 10" or more was higher than like 5-10 pct. Aside from the Superstorm (which changed to rain here anyway) it's never happened in my lifetime. And with increased urbanization and climate change, the chances are likely that I won't ever see it- which is fine by me, because winter around here really is a DJF affair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 18 hours ago, jm1220 said: They really need a Nino pattern with a loaded subtropical jet and blocking like what existed in 09-10. They just don’t do well in Nina years, where the northern stream dominates and late developing Miller B type storms are common, or cutters. Also we haven’t had help from the NAO in recent years. We are far enough northeast to take advantage of all the later developing coastal storms we’ve been seeing. The longitude helps-remember the 1/4 storm snow swath was NNE to SSW. JM they are getting the first effects of ACC in our region because of them being further south. That line will likely move up here in a few decades. I feel bad for them because they have some really rabid snow enthusiasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 19 hours ago, JerseyWx said: Lol, I really do wonder about the cognitive abilities of other animals. BTW, this storm was very close to falling on the 25th anniversary of the '93 Superstorm. Animals like dogs, cats, elephants, some parrots, pigs, great apes, dolphins, etc are highly intelligent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: Some really have unrealistic expectations. I know the climatology of my immediate area and NYC and never thought that the chances of 10" or more was higher than like 5-10 pct. Aside from the Superstorm (which changed to rain here anyway) it's never happened in my lifetime. And with increased urbanization and climate change, the chances are likely that I won't ever see it- which is fine by me, because winter around here really is a DJF affair. If we were 5 degrees colder with both storms the coast sees 30"+ total in a 5 day span. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 If my mother was my uncle... yea i get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 8 hours ago, Eduardo said: Great post! I wonder which factor ENSO state or blocking (orientation and magnitude) plays a greater role. I remember seeing a thread in their subforum discussing this topic some time ago. I went to law school down in DC from 2010 to 2013. As an extreme weather enthusiast, it was an incredibly frustrating place to be, save for some extreme heat. Even severe T-Storm lines have a tendency to split before reaching the city. Apparently there's some topography-related theory that accounts for it. Hey you get that here on Long Island too. Its why I became a fan of extreme heat lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 11 minutes ago, forkyfork said: ... I'm so sorry. We just had ours restored, and I hope yours will be too. Hope they're just managing expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: If we were 5 degrees colder with both storms the coast sees 30"+ total in a 5 day span. Yeah but even a 2 degree shift in temps almost requires a seismic event lol. Notice how often the temps seem to get "stuck" at around 33-34 like it's some sort of barrier? We really need these to be mostly night time events, which I feel sad about saying, because I find daytime snows very photogenic. Unless you have a deep arctic airmass in place it's really hard to get temps that low this late in the season anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 22 hours ago, Brian5671 said: uniform snowfall distribution has become rare in recent years...these maps of snow fallen look much more convective in nature than in years past where the high # would be 10 and the low would be 6 over a large geographic area. That's correct. Our ideal storm actually isn't a coastal bomb, it's a massive area of overrunning attacking an arctic airmass. These most often happen in El Ninos because of a juiced up STJ. Our greatest storms came from that kind of pattern. The region where I live is actually in a convective hole just as much in the winter as it is in the summer, but we usually jackpot as long as the temperatures are cold enough with the overrunning into arctic air set up- examples are Feb 1983, PD2 and Jan 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 21 minutes ago, forkyfork said: ... That sucks. I know a guy who lives in Milford PA, he's been out since last Friday morning...and has a tree on his roof, which will now need total replacement. F that noise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Oh man. The British are coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/8/2018 at 8:54 AM, bluewave said: Yeah, some pretty scenes from the park in the early evening. https://mobile.twitter.com/isardasorensen/status/971573296138473473/photo/1 Wow that was amazing! I wonder if she has any photography from the Jan 4 Blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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