December 2017 Long Range Disco

[ATreglown]

Is it too much to ask that you guys post maps that include the Richmond area of Virginia? I would really appreciate it. We tend to get left out in no mans land, being the southern most MA area, and not quite south enough to be considered in SE forum.

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, ATreglown said:

Is it too much to ask that you guys post maps that include the Richmond area of Virginia? I would really appreciate it. We tend to get left out in no mans land, being the southern most MA area, and not quite south enough to be considered in SE forum.

Here's the GEFS mean for snowfall through 15 days

Also, you can check Tropicaltidbits.com for stuff like that if you didn't know, but I'm assuming you do

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

6 minutes ago, ATreglown said:

Is it too much to ask that you guys post maps that include the Richmond area of Virginia? I would really appreciate it. We tend to get left out in no mans land, being the southern most MA area, and not quite south enough to be considered in SE forum.

You have a point.  I vote let them in, but my voice alone does nothing.

[ATreglown]

Thank you so much Cobalt!! Much appreciated! Yes, I know of TT, but sometimes when time is limited, it's nice to scroll through here quickly to get an update.  

 

[ATreglown]

BTRW, Thanks!! Hey, not the forums fault. There are very few of us Richmonder's on here, so it's easy to forget about us.

[NorthArlington101]

I'm not sure how many people have figured this out yet, but you can get a glance at the EURO ens for free, with mean, max, and min snow depth at your location.

https://weather.us/forecast/4744709-arlington/ensemble/euro/snow

That link directs you to Arlington, but its pretty easy to change location. GFS doesn't have a category for snow depth, but you can see precipitation, temperature, and 850 temperature. 

[Cobalt]

6 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

You have a point.  I vote let them in, but my voice alone does nothing.

I would like to vote to let him in as well. I'm knew to this community too, and so the more the merrier. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Certainly not a dry look on the GEFS thru mid-December

[North Balti Zen]

Richmond is a part of this forum. You don’t need to vote them in. 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

I would like to vote to let him in as well. I'm knew to this community too, and so the more the merrier. 

And sometimes they pull off a miracle event in spectacular fashion...EZF and north get the shaft..it brings tears but it happens

[NorthArlington101]

lol... he's already in. Nobody excludes the Richmond folks, we just forget about them. Now those people in Northern Maryland... 

Anyways, so as not to make this post useless, here is a look at the Panasonic weeklies' mean snowfall. Not as high as I would have expected from the look, but the one major flaw in the weeklies seems to be they're a little dry.

 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Certainly not a dry look on the GEFS thru mid-December

A lot of that is rain from the front I think

[CAPE]

Anyone notice the GEFS snow mean maps seem to hate coastal central NJ? Just an oddity I have noticed. The EPS snow maps aren't like that. Wonder if it is a model thing or Weatherbell..

[ATreglown]

2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

I would like to vote to let him in as well. I'm knew to this community too, and so the more the merrier. 

Not sure why it shows only 20 post, because I am not new. Been her for quite a few years. I just do not post much, more of a reader. I let my membership lag and joined again, but I used to be under the name as mystic. I actually went to their last conference in Baltimore several years back. Sorry, for the clutter, but the conversation started here. You can move it to banter if you wish

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Anyone notice the GEFS snow mean maps seem to hate coastal central NJ? Just an oddity I have noticed. The EPS snow maps aren't like that. Wonder if it is a model thing or Weatherbell..

I grew up there..winter hates anyone east of the GSP

[Cobalt]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

lol... he's already in. Nobody excludes the Richmond folks, we just forget about them. Now those people in Northern Maryland... 

Anyways, so as not to make this post useless, here is a look at the Panasonic weeklies' mean snowfall. Not as high as I would have expected from the look, but the one major flaw in the weeklies seems to be there are a little dry.

 

Looks fairly spot on or maybe a few inches above climo. i'm not complaining

[Cobalt]

CanSIPS is warm, but wetter than average. Interesting. Will most likely go the Nov way, where the CanSIPS busted temperature-wise

[ATreglown]

10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

lol... he's already in. Nobody excludes the Richmond folks, we just forget about them. Now those people in Northern Maryland... 

Anyways, so as not to make this post useless, here is a look at the Panasonic weeklies' mean snowfall. Not as high as I would have expected from the look, but the one major flaw in the weeklies seems to be there are a little dry.

 

And thank you as well! We are easy to forget! LOL! But sometimes we get the luck of the draw and score a good event!! 

[CAPE]

CanSIPS are a disaster lol.

I believe they are lost. Or maybe the better models are all wrong.

 

eta- actually its not that far off for Dec. Has the right look up top.

[Bob Chill]

Just a friendly reminder...lol...the GFS and Euro op can fail miserably with great snow looks @ d4-5. Getting excited or depressed d7+ on an op run is borderline madness. 

[OSUmetstud]

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

CanSIPS are a disaster lol.

I believe they are lost. Or maybe the better models are all wrong.

 

eta- actually its not that far off for Dec. Has the right look up top.

The canadian weeklies that also just came out look a lot more reasonable and more closely resemble the euro weeklies for December.  

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Just a friendly reminder...lol...the GFS and Euro op can fail miserably with great snow looks @ d4-5. Getting excited or depressed d7+ on an op run is borderline madness. 

All I am taking away from the LR as of now is a less pronounced WAR.  I’m obsessed with it mainly because every other thing looks so good.  I noticed that the further SE it is the  temp anomaly is less negative.  I know we need it somewhat but too much of a good thing can be bad 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

The canadian weeklies that also just came out look a lot more reasonable and more closely resemble the euro weeklies for December.  

Yup just looking at the GEPS. Not bad at all.

[DC2Winston]

Hey Bob, who is the Mr. Chill of the SE forum? 

This will be my first winter not living in the MA. Need to line up my must-reads! 

[mitchnick]

17 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

CanSIPS is warm, but wetter than average. Interesting. Will most likely go the Nov way, where the CanSIPS busted temperature-wise

That just updated because I checked it before I made that post to Cape. That pretty much stinks, so I'll disregard it. Snowman19 needs something to hang his hat on, if not a snow stick. 

[Bob Chill]

CanSucks is dead to me

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Cobalt]

Just now, mitchnick said:

That just updated because I checked it before I made that post to Cape. That pretty much stinks, so I'll disregard it. Snowman19 needs something to hang his hat on, if not a snow stick. 

Remember though 

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, CARDC79 said:

Hey Bob, who is the Mr. Chill of the SE forum? 

This will be my first winter not living in the MA. Need to line up my must-reads! 

No idea but it looks like I need to hire a trademark lawyer or Mitch. 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Since none of us possess special powers to make it snow...lol...I'll glady accept any and every pattern that isn't a shutout. The cool thing is next week appears to be a flip to an extended period of a half decent pattern for snow. I would rate it as above normal chances (not that AN means much in the MA). Having brief windows sandwiched between a disaster and a torch really sucks. Especially when it lasts like 6 weeks. 

At the very least, the most important ingredient for snow (cold) looks favorable. We REALLY need that during the first half of Dec. I'm hoping the first legit threat isn't a climo gradient where I sit @ 35 surface and +1 850's with rain while PSU/losetoa6/sparky/mappy are afraid to post pics of their ongoing paste bomb because the mob will attack. 

If that does happen take solace in this, every time I've had that happen, an early/mid December  significant wet snow event up here that was mostly rain in the urban corridor, you eventually got yours later that winter.  That's been a sign of a pretty good winter incoming. 

[Bob Chill]

17 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

All I am taking away from the LR as of now is a less pronounced WAR.  I’m obsessed with it mainly because every other thing looks so good.  I noticed that the further SE it is the  temp anomaly is less negative.  I know we need it somewhat but too much of a good thing can be bad 

I look at it this way.... Luck is the most important factor in our snow chances. We've totally blown MANY good patterns. Even perfect ones. Luck odds improve with every day that passes when we're not in a shutout pattern. Think about the last 3 Decembers. The general H5 pattern offered little hope. Especially the last 2. We're entering this Dec with no shutout pattern in sight as far as the eye can see. For all we know the WAR or (insert the less than perfect feature here) will actually contribute to having good luck. 

This time next week we enter what appears to be a prolonged period where it can snow. The only thing that can rattle me is staring at an approaching shutout pattern with nothing in the books. From what I'm seeing right now, it's going to be quite a while before we are at risk of a shutout pattern. Good times man. Enjoy it until there's nothing to enjoy.