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Bob Chill

November Long Range Disco

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Tonight was looking like one of the colder night's this fall but models backed off a little...maybe clouds pushing in earlier..it was looking like a possible freeze 24 to 48 ago nw

Forecast for here tonight is clear skies and calm winds. Might go lower than the 37 forecast. Have had a bunch of 37-40 degree lows here. Would be nice to get below 35 with some widespread frost.

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Cohen updated his blog yesterday:

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Crib notes:

-SCI and SAI are sending conflicting signals. Snowcover is good but the advance index stalled mid month before accelerating. The SAI is not as robust for a -AO as the SCI

-The AO will be positive for the first 2 weeks of Nov but the signals point towards that flipping mid month (we'll see about that)

-No signs of the strat PV warming/weaking so that supports a +AO for now

-Confidence for a winter -AO isn't very high

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 

-The AO will be positive for the first 2 weeks of Nov but the signals point towards that flipping mid month (we'll see about that)

 

It's all about the little victories. I'll take that for now

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4 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

It's all about the little victories. I'll take that for now

After reading Cohen's blog for the last 4-5 years, it really doesn't give me any confidence. Whenever things aren't going as planned, the can is always kicked down the road but the narrative is always the same. "Not now but later" is a typical Cohen spin. 

Of course I'm hoping he's right about the second half of November but I have my doubts. If the AO spikes like it's currently progged then it becomes much more likely that Nov will feature a +AO door to door. We won't know much for another couple weeks though. A 2 week AO spike isn't all that troubling. A strong +AO for the month of Nov is pretty troubling. All we can do is sit back and scope and hope right now. 

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George, that really isn't that bad honestly. The SST structure last year was a +PDO and that's what we want in general. Especially during warm enso but anytime is always better than a -PDO. There are many variations inside of theses pretty pictures but we want the one on the left:

pdo_warm_cool3.jpg

Not too far back in the past (Sept) the PDO was definitely negative. You can see the warm anomlies near Japan propagating eastward and cold anomalies close the west coast. This is a crappy panel for the PDO as far as we're concerned.

 

anomnight.9.4.2017.gif

 

Fast forward a couple months the the PDO region has lost quite a bit of the -PDO phase. It's still probably technically negative but not nearly as obvious as a few months ago:

anomnight.10.30.2017.gif

 

 

The pattern in the npac coming up is pretty sideways so I don't expect much clarity for a couple weeks with how the PDO is going to shift. Overall, I've seen far worse at this point in time in recent years....2011 takes the cake for a disgusting npac award of the decade...lol

anomnight.10.31.2011.gif

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3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Hey we are just being objective. Gotta walk that line between weenie-ism/wishcasting and the negative nancy routine. Unless there is a clear threat, I pay little attention to op runs beyond 5 days, esp this time of year. Right now the means look meh. CFS is on one of its brutal streaks. Hoping for a hold or some improvement with the new CanSIPS for Nov/Dec.

Yeah, I can understand where you are coming from. Hell, last year I came over as a negative Nellie quite often. But of course everything pointed to crap where as the only hope we had was looking beyond day 10 if not day 15 and that always goes over so well counting on that. But I think we are dealing with a whole different situation at this point.

Though on the surface it looks pretty crappy I think looking into more detail shows some promise. Take the AO for example, the current value would argue for a somewhat strong PV and yet I think that is misleading. The pv is weakened and disrupted and looks to remain that way in the near future despite the extended range smoothing that suggests otherwise. Looking in the eastern pacific/western US, the models would suggest that we lock into a somewhat stable pattern and yet when looking at the continual disruptions and weakening of the PAC jet with it gyrating everywhere I would think that argues otherwise. When this same jet is continually split into mid latitude and polar jet streaks across the CONUS with a subtropical thrown into the mix quite often that to me suggests a very unstable pattern. About the only feature that looks somewhat stable in my mind is the ridging we have been seeing around the Aleutians and into Alaska.

Over the last week I have seen the models go from hinting at a suppression of the strong SER and WAR to where as now they are actually attempting to pull the higher heights/ridging underneath us westward into the southwest. Which most likely would flip the ridging and troughing alignment through the CONUS. This can be seen with the latest runs of the Euro op that I have to question whether it may be leading the way on a possible pattern change. Looking at indice values also may be cluing us in on a pattern change. When I see a sudden huge spread develop between members on multiple indices at roughly the same time on both the GEFS and the EPS this would lead me to believe that we will have a possible pattern change. This coincidentally is centered roughly around day 7 at this time. There are other things I have seen also over the last several days but I just don't recall them at this time.

Maybe I am just being an over optimistic weenie, but at this point in time I see quite a bit that screams change in the somewhat near future and half expect that by this time next week things will look much different.

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

George, that really isn't that bad honestly. The SST structure last year was a +PDO and that's what we want in general. Especially during warm enso but anytime is always better than a -PDO. There are many variations inside of theses pretty pictures but we want the one on the left:

pdo_warm_cool3.jpg

Not too far back in the past (Sept) the PDO was definitely negative. You can see the warm anomlies near Japan propagating eastward and cold anomalies close the west coast. This is a crappy panel for the PDO as far as we're concerned.

 

anomnight.9.4.2017.gif

 

Fast forward a couple months the the PDO region has lost quite a bit of the -PDO phase. It's still probably technically negative but not nearly as obvious as a few months ago:

anomnight.10.30.2017.gif

 

 

The pattern in the npac coming up is pretty sideways so I don't expect much clarity for a couple weeks with how the PDO is going to shift. Overall, I've seen far worse at this point in time in recent years....2011 takes the cake for a disgusting npac award of the decade...lol

anomnight.10.31.2011.gif

Gotcha. My mistake.

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1 minute ago, George BM said:

Gotcha. My mistake.

It's still a notable trend.  I think people are approaching this from different reference points.  Those ssta maps George shared from last year show what went wrong and when.  This year would have to trend in the opposite direction from cool to warm almost like we are seeing now, but it's still too early to see how the PDO behaves as Bob said.

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

George, that really isn't that bad honestly. The SST structure last year was a +PDO and that's what we want in general. Especially during warm enso but anytime is always better than a -PDO. There are many variations inside of theses pretty pictures but we want the one on the left:

pdo_warm_cool3.jpg

Not too far back in the past (Sept) the PDO was definitely negative. You can see the warm anomlies near Japan propagating eastward and cold anomalies close the west coast. This is a crappy panel for the PDO as far as we're concerned.

 

anomnight.9.4.2017.gif

 

Fast forward a couple months the the PDO region has lost quite a bit of the -PDO phase. It's still probably technically negative but not nearly as obvious as a few months ago:

anomnight.10.30.2017.gif

 

 

The pattern in the npac coming up is pretty sideways so I don't expect much clarity for a couple weeks with how the PDO is going to shift. Overall, I've seen far worse at this point in time in recent years....2011 takes the cake for a disgusting npac award of the decade...lol

anomnight.10.31.2011.gif

Note how the "perfect" +PDO has the "perfect" Modoki Nino too   :(

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1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Yeah, I can understand where you are coming from. Hell, last year I came over as a negative Nellie quite often. But of course everything pointed to crap where as the only hope we had was looking beyond day 10 if not day 15 and that always goes over so well counting on that. But I think we are dealing with a whole different situation at this point.

Though on the surface it looks pretty crappy I think looking into more detail shows some promise. Take the AO for example, the current value would argue for a somewhat strong PV and yet I think that is misleading. The pv is weakened and disrupted and looks to remain that way in the near future despite the extended range smoothing that suggests otherwise. Looking in the eastern pacific/western US, the models would suggest that we lock into a somewhat stable pattern and yet when looking at the continual disruptions and weakening of the PAC jet with it gyrating everywhere I would think that argues otherwise. When this same jet is continually split into mid latitude and polar jet streaks across the CONUS with a subtropical thrown into the mix quite often that to me suggests a very unstable pattern. About the only feature that looks somewhat stable in my mind is the ridging we have been seeing around the Aleutians and into Alaska.

Over the last week I have seen the models go from hinting at a suppression of the strong SER and WAR to where as now they are actually attempting to pull the higher heights/ridging underneath us westward into the southwest. Which most likely would flip the ridging and troughing alignment through the CONUS. This can be seen with the latest runs of the Euro op that I have to question whether it may be leading the way on a possible pattern change. Looking at indice values also may be cluing us in on a pattern change. When I see a sudden huge spread develop between members on multiple indices at roughly the same time on both the GEFS and the EPS this would lead me to believe that we will have a possible pattern change. This coincidentally is centered roughly around day 7 at this time. There are other things I have seen also over the last several days but I just don't recall them at this time.

Maybe I am just being an over optimistic weenie, but at this point in time I see quite a bit that screams change in the somewhat near future and half expect that by this time next week things will look much different.

You give me hope, my friend!  Great discussion in here overall.  I must admit that the combination of Alaskan/WPO ridging and 10-15 pattern changes harkens back to last year's traumas for me.  I'm hoping that the weaker, more east-oriented Niña saves us this time around...

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8 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Yeah, I can understand where you are coming from. Hell, last year I came over as a negative Nellie quite often. But of course everything pointed to crap where as the only hope we had was looking beyond day 10 if not day 15 and that always goes over so well counting on that. But I think we are dealing with a whole different situation at this point.

Though on the surface it looks pretty crappy I think looking into more detail shows some promise. Take the AO for example, the current value would argue for a somewhat strong PV and yet I think that is misleading. The pv is weakened and disrupted and looks to remain that way in the near future despite the extended range smoothing that suggests otherwise. Looking in the eastern pacific/western US, the models would suggest that we lock into a somewhat stable pattern and yet when looking at the continual disruptions and weakening of the PAC jet with it gyrating everywhere I would think that argues otherwise. When this same jet is continually split into mid latitude and polar jet streaks across the CONUS with a subtropical thrown into the mix quite often that to me suggests a very unstable pattern. About the only feature that looks somewhat stable in my mind is the ridging we have been seeing around the Aleutians and into Alaska.

Over the last week I have seen the models go from hinting at a suppression of the strong SER and WAR to where as now they are actually attempting to pull the higher heights/ridging underneath us westward into the southwest. Which most likely would flip the ridging and troughing alignment through the CONUS. This can be seen with the latest runs of the Euro op that I have to question whether it may be leading the way on a possible pattern change. Looking at indice values also may be cluing us in on a pattern change. When I see a sudden huge spread develop between members on multiple indices at roughly the same time on both the GEFS and the EPS this would lead me to believe that we will have a possible pattern change. This coincidentally is centered roughly around day 7 at this time. There are other things I have seen also over the last several days but I just don't recall them at this time.

Maybe I am just being an over optimistic weenie, but at this point in time I see quite a bit that screams change in the somewhat near future and half expect that by this time next week things will look much different.

I have to agree with you on this. Like you said all the other indexes look to be wobbling a lot. The only one index that has been pretty stable has with the EPO which remains negative. We have to remember we have quite a number of things going in our favor this year unlike the last couple of winters like the negative QBO and the weak east based La Nina. Thanks for the awesome writeup. 

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Gfs day 7 storm really pumps up the heights ahead in the west atlantic and moves up To GL ..this could be an interesting op run 

Edit...and it was 

Long range but nice to see .Builds a west ridge twice thru dsy 15...decent blocking as well. Now lets get ensembles to get on that train :D

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48 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs day 7 storm really pumps up the heights ahead in the west atlantic and moves up To GL ..this could be an interesting op run 

Edit...and it was 

Long range but nice to see .Builds a west ridge twice thru dsy 15...decent blocking as well. Now lets get ensembles to get on that train :D

Yeah its way out there. Lets see what the GEFS looks like, and more importantly if there is any persistence with this as we go forward. Looking for some encouraging signs, but this may very well be transient(NA +heights). Would really like to see some reshuffling of the epac pattern. The advertised configuration around AK at the end of this run is not what we want to see for the long haul. Rolling that forward would very likely end up with more EC ridging.

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18 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Well thats a couple GEFS runs in a row where it at least looks seasonable as we get past mid November. Baby steps lol.

That's one heck of a block over Alaska. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017110118&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0

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31 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gfs/gefs is starting to advertise some decent hp in the ao/nao domains down the line. Unfortunately the gfs/gefs has been consistently busting in the wrong direction d7+. I need something encouraging to hug so I'll hug it for now. 

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On 10/31/2017 at 11:23 AM, George BM said:

Do you all remember this kick in the guts? 

 

 

October 10 2016 sst anomaly.png

November 14 2016 sst anomaly.png

I agree with bob the PDO wasnt our main problem last year. But when that happened it did finally settle it in my mind that JB was 100% lying to people and not just being a weenie. He had based most of his fall edition of his winter outlook on that warm pool and even admitted that was going to have to overcome some negative factors otherwise. Then when it flipped he somehow updated with the same forecast only shifted the reason to other things even though at the same time his colleagues on wxbell were posting analog maps showing it was likely to be a warm winter. I lost any respect for him at that moment. I can understand weenyism. I've been guilty of that plenty. But blatant lying is disgusting and makes the whole weather community look bad. 

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On 10/31/2017 at 2:14 PM, mitchnick said:

Note how the "perfect" +PDO has the "perfect" Modoki Nino too   :(

I am pessimistic but I've not given up all hope for this winter yet and one reason is the ambiguity remaining around some of the big factors that will determine our fate. The PDO could yet end up our way. Nao doesn't look good but it's too early to say for sure. But if we were looking at that 2011 map I would already be planning my "snow vacation" trips to get my fix because I would know it wasn't going to end well. 

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For what little its worth, the GFS mean snowfall has been slowly creeping down over the area for the past couple runs over Day 6-8. The metro is officially .1" range (lol).  in the The couple that take the low to NC almost get something going. I've been watching the timeframe for a little while since I have nothing better to do, I'll check in again at 12z. 

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3 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

For what little its worth, the GFS mean snowfall has been slowly creeping down over the area for the past couple runs over Day 6-8. The metro is officially .1" range (lol).  in the The couple that take the low to NC almost get something going. I've been watching the timeframe for a little while since I have nothing better to do, I'll check in again at 12z. 

Trend reversed. Back to hibernation. 

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Hey now...Pretty good weeklies run tonight.  -AO/NAO start around day 20 and last almost to the end of the run...then the PNA/EPO get cranking.  I'll just hug this run...until monday's run pulls the rug.

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

That's some real cold air lurking just north of the lakes region Gfs day 6/7 .

Mid 20s for many  next Thursday night...nice

gfs_T2m_us_29.png

I believe it also said like 18 degrees in upstate NY for Oct 29th about 2 weeks prior, the actual low was 47 degrees.

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