Wonderdog Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 On 10/27/2017 at 10:21 AM, mitchnick said: Get used to it. It's morphing into your typical warm/cold Nina pattern. Our shots for snow will come with clippers, snow to rain events, and hopefully 1 or 2 a small/mod coastal(s). Pray we fluke into something big (8"-12".) But when it's not cold, keep the fall clothes handy. That said, I like seeing all this action off the coast and the fronts getting hung up. If we can get 1 or 2 of them during true winter, we score big. This pattern does afford US the possibility of scoring big on one or two occasions. Probably going to have a lot of close calls this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Those patterns [at this time of the year] usually retrograde into US-wide warmth 7-10 days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 I mentioned it in banter yesterday, and NW mentioned it in the freeze contest thread, but the next few weeks look seasonal to warmer than seasonal. For all of the maps folks are posting and have been posting of pools of frigid air building in the 10-15 day period, when we get there, the ground truth is quite different. Not saying that is what it will be in the winter, but for this part of the fall, promised cold has been delayed and then denied for the most part... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 30, 2017 Author Share Posted October 30, 2017 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: I mentioned it in banter yesterday, and NW mentioned it in the freeze contest thread, but the next few weeks look seasonal to warmer than seasonal. For all of the maps folks are posting and have been posting of pools of frigid air building in the 10-15 day period, when we get there, the ground truth is quite different. Not saying that is what it will be in the winter, but for this part of the fall, promised cold has been delayed and then denied for the most part... It's pretty normal in the early fall for long lead amplification/cold to verify weaker. That should change as we move into Nov. I'm very unimpressed with the long lead ens means right now. Strong +AO regime coming up (bad timing but that's for the winter disco). Flow will be progressive for the foreseeable future so any cold shots will be the standard 2-3 days tops then back to seasonal or AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Dulles has a shot at freezing tomorrow night, but after that.... no chance for another 10 days at least. Accuwx long range doesn't show a hard-freeze through the entirety of November for here. This is going to be another year of mowing grass into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's pretty normal in the early fall for long lead amplification/cold to verify weaker. That should change as we move into Nov. I'm very unimpressed with the long lead ens means right now. Strong +AO regime coming up (bad timing but that's for the winter disco). Flow will be progressive for the foreseeable future so any cold shots will be the standard 2-3 days tops then back to seasonal or AN. Hopefully this flips come mid-late December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: It's pretty normal in the early fall for long lead amplification/cold to verify weaker. That should change as we move into Nov. I'm very unimpressed with the long lead ens means right now. Strong +AO regime coming up (bad timing but that's for the winter disco). Flow will be progressive for the foreseeable future so any cold shots will be the standard 2-3 days tops then back to seasonal or AN. Agree. That "should change". But I do confess to some eye-brow raising over posts highlighting huge cold dumps on the long range maps that I have seen on here and the fact that not only does the cold snap not come to fruition, it hasn't even really properly been "cold" yet. God knows I am not looking for snow this early, but some legit cold air intrusions along the lines as modeled a few times so far would have been nice. But if the cold wants to wait until December, fine by me. I do worry that cold delayed ends up cold denied in this kind of cycle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 30, 2017 Author Share Posted October 30, 2017 I won't lie...this is troubling... If Nov averages +1.2 or greater, the odds of Dec having a +AO are pretty high. There isn't a big sample so there's that but there is only 1 outlier (78-79) where November was +2.4 and the subsequent winter was very blocky. The 4 most recent cases carried a strong +AO into Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I won't lie...this is troubling... If Nov averages +1.2 or greater, the odds of Dec having a +AO are pretty high. There isn't a big sample so there's that but there is only 1 outlier (78-79) where November was +2.4 and the subsequent winter was very blocky. The 4 most recent cases carried a strong +AO into Dec. I wouldn't be surprised if this December was another warm one. Every single December for the past 5 years has been the same way. If we've got this pattern going into January, then it's time to panic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 I know its the CFS, but the weeklies are advertising the same stable, ugly h5 pattern for weeks 2 through 6, for many consecutive runs now. Latest run takes us through the first 10 days of December. Might be the worst looking one yet lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 GFS has been advertising cold around November 8th for some time now. Seems like on of those "looks cold" events that we have at this time of the year, which will turn out to just be seasonal temperatures, or nothing at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: This made me lol. You've really had to mow that late? I will winterize my tractor this coming weekend. 3-4 frosts here have all but stunted things . Usually 1 hard freeze finishes the job.Now or first week in November is usually it for mby. 2 years ago, I did my last mow on the second weekend in December; had to mow around my Christmas decorations. There were people still mowing their lawns the week of Christmas. I'll never forget hearing/seeing my neighbor accross the street mowing his grass on Dec. 23. The sound of the mowers and smell of cut grass was sickening. If memory serves, it was the first week of January before we got our first mid-20s low. Frost does nothing to stop my grass. Unless it's a mid-20s hard-freeze, the grass keeps on growing. Mine is early-spring green right now, and growing rapidly still. I've been mowing each of the last 3 weekends, and needed to again this weekend, but was not home Saturday, and it rained yesterday. I will have quite a job waiting for me this upcoming weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 36 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GFS has been advertising cold around November 8th for some time now. Seems like on of those "looks cold" events that we have at this time of the year, which will turn out to just be seasonal temperatures, or nothing at all Two days of seasonal or -1F, followed by 5 days of +10-15F. Wash, rinse, repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Two days of seasonal or -1F, followed by 5 days of +10-15F. Wash, rinse, repeat. As long as we aren't having this same conversation in late January, I'm happy. Seasonable temperatures would be nice, but there's still time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Latest Euro starts to build a west ridge day 9-10 and some semblance of a east trough ..which would line up with this date. 850s I hope that this verifies. I want at least cold weather to get me in the Holiday mood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 30, 2017 Author Share Posted October 30, 2017 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Latest Euro starts to build a west ridge day 9-10 and some semblance of a east trough ..which would line up with this date. I'd trade warmth for a -AO. Euro is showing a west ridge/east trough but the high latitudes are pretty gross. Copious low pressure all over where we want high pressure. I'm not liking November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 49 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'd trade warmth for a -AO. Euro is showing a west ridge/east trough but the high latitudes are pretty gross. Copious low pressure all over where we want high pressure. I'm not liking November. Just like last year!!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I'd trade warmth for a -AO. Euro is showing a west ridge/east trough but the high latitudes are pretty gross. Copious low pressure all over where we want high pressure. I'm not liking November. I agree it ain't great, but there remains that ridge around Alaska, which is good, and the ensembles show it as well. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017103012&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=311 Ensembles also show how we can still get seasonal air in the east with that setup too. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=nhem&pkg=T850a&runtime=2017103012&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0 Not exciting, but not worth jumping off a cliff......yet? Don't get me wrong, I too would love to see Canada filed with red, but that won't do anything for us come met winter. I'll cling to that ridging in Alaska for now like JI to an 84 hr. NAM blizzard and hope for the best!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 35 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I agree it ain't great, but there remains that ridge around Alaska, which is good, and the ensembles show it as well. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017103012&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=311 Ensembles also show how we can still get seasonal air in the east with that setup too. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=nhem&pkg=T850a&runtime=2017103012&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0 Not exciting, but not worth jumping off a cliff......yet? Don't get me wrong, I too would love to see Canada filed with red, but that won't do anything for us come met winter. I'll cling to that ridging in Alaska for now like JI to an 84 hr. NAM blizzard and hope for the best!!! The mean ridge around AK needs to be in the "right" place though. When its back over the Aleutians we are likely going to see a -PNA. Would rather see a big low sitting there, with the positive heights further north/east over interior AK and W Canada. Favors a -EPO/+PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 30, 2017 Author Share Posted October 30, 2017 Mitch, I agree that the pattern should push down some cold hp's that slide through the east down the line. Euro ens is showing BN temps d12+ just like the gefs. But the high latitudes are doing things we really don't want to see right now. It's not just at typical +ao coming into view. It's a big expansive sea of BN heights all over the place up there. Definitely reminds me of how we started off the last 3 winters. I hope my hunch is totally wrong but my gut is telling me we are prob going to kick off met winter with another strong +ao. December isn't a good fluke storm month. Especially the first half. If we punt another Dec and chase a fantasy pattern flip through most of Jan again I'm going to want to break things....a lot of things....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 GFS 18z comes back with what looks like the same thing it's advertised since this time yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: The mean ridge around AK needs to be in the "right" place though. When its back over the Aleutians we are likely going to see a -PNA. Would rather see a big low sitting there, with the positive heights further north/east over interior AK and W Canada. Favors a -EPO/+PNA. 33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Mitch, I agree that the pattern should push down some cold hp's that slide through the east down the line. Euro ens is showing BN temps d12+ just like the gefs. But the high latitudes are doing things we really don't want to see right now. It's not just at typical +ao coming into view. It's a big expansive sea of BN heights all over the place up there. Definitely reminds me of how we started off the last 3 winters. I hope my hunch is totally wrong but my gut is telling me we are prob going to kick off met winter with another strong +ao. December isn't a good fluke storm month. Especially the first half. If we punt another Dec and chase a fantasy pattern flip through most of Jan again I'm going to want to break things....a lot of things....lol I hear you and I'm NOT saying it looks great but I think we're 3-4 weeks away from being concerned about losing all of December or worse. Me, I'd prefer the "right/perfect" pattern showing up the end of November or early December. It usually has staying power then and will often return thru winter. Maybe my patience comes from watching too many reruns of the Karate Kid....come to think about it, I've never watched the Karate Kid. Must be because I'm then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I'd trade warmth for a -AO. Euro is showing a west ridge/east trough but the high latitudes are pretty gross. Copious low pressure all over where we want high pressure. I'm not liking November. This! Just posted similar thoughts in the NYC forum too. We need this to turn around to avoid punting what tends to be our most-favored month in Niña years. The weenie in me is clinging to the -QBO and weak, east-based orientation of the Niña, but I am definitely getting a sense of foreboding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Eduardo said: This! Just posted similar thoughts in the NYC forum too. We need this to turn around to avoid punting what tends to be our most-favored month in Niña years. The weenie in me is clinging to the -QBO and weak, east-based orientation of the Niña, but I am definitely getting a sense of foreboding... Not foreboding. ...paranoia, and probably well deserved after last year. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I hear you and I'm NOT saying it looks great but I think we're 3-4 weeks away from being concerned about losing all of December or worse. Me, I'd prefer the "right/perfect" pattern showing up the end of November or early December. It usually has staying power then and will often return thru winter. Maybe my patience comes from watching too many reruns of the Karate Kid....come to think about it, I've never watched the Karate Kid. Must be because I'm then. I would just rather not end up with this again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: I would just rather not end up with this again And New England did just fine. Hard to believe. They've got to have a clunker one of these years and maybe to our benefit. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Almost want to play the taps in here. Talk about a depressing crew and it's not even November yet. I can see @WxWatcher007 is going to be filling up his rooms early this year. I thought the 12Z Euro run was somewhat intriguing at the end of the run. But it was the op and at range so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Almost want to play the taps in here. Talk about a depressing crew and it's not even November yet. I can see @WxWatcher007 is going to be filling up his rooms early this year. I thought the 12Z Euro run was somewhat intriguing at the end of the run. But it was the op and at range so.... while the signals are somewhat concerning, I too feel it a bit hasty to be looking for toasters... If we get to start of dec and were still seeing no blocking or +PNA, then i'm going to jump on the doom and gloom wagon. I wont hold out as long as i did last year. That was tough for many of us. On the other bright side, at least were seeing changeable cold/warm showing up and I'm good w/ that. Fingers crossed. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 47 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I'm contemplating an early open of The Panic Room to handle the demand. Seriously though, the signals don't look great. If we're popping a strongly positive AO that doesn't bode particularly well for December overall. I'm still concerned about the PAC pattern and ENSO. Hopefully things start to look like a legit flip or transition toward favorable in by mid November, but it certainly doesn't look that way right now. I believe I have a reservation once it opens for the season? Please send up a botttle of bubbly and a hammer to use on my head please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 I come to read this for the optimism and leave with stage 5 of grief: acceptance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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