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Bob Chill

November Long Range Disco

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45 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That -NAO is hawt. GEFS has it too. Haven’t seen a NAO block like that in the cold season for a long time. If this was 4-6 weeks from now, it would MECSy.

Feel like we are wasting it but I guess we can’t be too picky.  Should at least keep things seasonable into turkey day...if it really happens.  

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15 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Feel like we are wasting it but I guess we can’t be too picky.  Should at least keep things seasonable into turkey day...if it really happens.  

It will probably do little good in the short term other than keep temps on the chilly side. The hope is that this becomes a feature that sticks around for at least the first half of winter. If the EPS and (rolling it forward) the weeklies have the right idea, mid December could be pretty interesting.

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36 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Feel like we are wasting it but I guess we can’t be too picky.  Should at least keep things seasonable into turkey day...if it really happens.  

It's good for preconditioning lakes for freeze up (most important part of winter imo). Gotta get the entire column down to 39 degrees. 

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13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It will probably do little good in the short term other than keep temps on the chilly side. The hope is that this becomes a feature that sticks around for at least the first half of winter. If the EPS and (rolling it forward) the weeklies have the right idea, mid December could be pretty interesting.

NAO blocks tend to last what, like 20 to 25 days ? Whats the average ? And we be interesting to see if we get a HA event when the NAO goes the other way. 

I read that,  and must know this,  but if we get a drop like this now it should repeat later in the cold season. If not January , then Feb.

On a related note, Tip in the New England dicussion stated he feels there are things are work ( - WPO , Asia , etc. ) that would reload the pattern after going neutral for while . 

 

 

 

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56 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Feel like we are wasting it but I guess we can’t be too picky.  Should at least keep things seasonable into turkey day...if it really happens.  

I wouldn't worry about that at all. There's a fairly strong correlation in Nov and/or Dec with an anomalous AO. Almost every Nov with a mean AO of -1.2 or lower had a -AO December as well. Same goes with December. A strong -AO in December will also have a -AO in Jan 8 out of 10 times. Or vice versa as we've seen for 4 straight winters...lol

I look at the what's being advertised as a possible clue to how blocking will evolve over winter. We'll have a good idea if the current plunge in the AO/NAO domain has some legs within 2 weeks. I'm feeling pretty optimistic about blocking in general this winter. 

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The tip off to blocking this winter for me was that anomalous block west/north of Alaska that was plastered on every model for a long time. It would move around run to run, but it was always there. As the season matures, I think it moves into a better spot. But even if it tends to stay where it is, the trough to the south of it is pumping/raising heights around the Pole, which the models are finding homes for over Greenland and adjacent areas in and around the arctic circle. 

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Looked at CPC AO and NAO outlooks..both really tank after 16 Nov...really tank.  PNA is also negative so not sure how that will play out.   This is good.  Lots of wedge scenarios I believe.  Yet somehow the 8-14 day outlook for temps has us slight tendency for AN temps...that outlook was issued today.

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Sorry in advance for the slightly off topic post.

Please excuse my ignorance but HECS, MECS, etc. What do they mean? Major east coast storm? Historic east coast storm?...

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Sorry in advance for the slightly off topic post.

Please excuse my ignorance but HECS, MECS, etc. What do they mean? Major east coast storm? Historic east coast storm?...



Yeah, you got the idea.

Now that I type this, I realize I'm not sure, but I think it's BECS>HECS>MECS>SECS.

Biblical/Historic/Major/Significant?

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2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 


Yeah, you got the idea.

Now that I type this, I realize I'm not sure, but I think it's BECS>HECS>MECS>SECS.

Biblical/Historic/Major/Significant?
 

Correct

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16 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Definitely low probability chance...mean eps LP did look better a couple days ago. That vort has been on h5 panels for several days at different strengths..mostly weak.  In all reality it doesn't drop into the conus until hour 72 or so . So if there were a change in strength and depth  models would pick  it up by then as it drops in over the pac nw. 

Here's that vort I've been talking about in the day 6 time frame ...Looks a little better on gfs then previous runs. Still need more depth and strength if we want any chance outside of the mountains to see flakes..but it's something to track.

6z 138

500hv.na.png

144 LP

.gfs_mslpa_us_25.png

 

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8 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

 

Interesting...I was just checking EPS members out of curiosity after seeing the post by @losetoa6.  A signal, albeit weak, for a storm in the 10-15.  Ind members with a noticeable jump in snowfall around the region.  

ETA:  GEFS members with the same jump in the 10-15.  Dont get me wrong...not hanging my hat on it but it is something to casually monitor.

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1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

Interesting...I was just checking EPS members out of curiosity after seeing the post by @losetoa6.  A signal, albeit weak, for a storm in the 10-15.  Ind members with a noticeable jump in snowfall around the region.  

ETA:  GEFS members with the same jump in the 10-15.  Dont get me wrong...not hanging my hat on it but it is something to casually monitor.

Yep! You never hang a hat on anything in the Mid Atlantic. If you do, you will soon find it on the floor, often stomped on by muddy feet wet from the rain that was once digital snow.

But even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then! Maybe we will have something to watch.

 

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Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

Cold first half would be better than what we've had.

Reminds me of what we saw in 76/77. Cold starting in October, really, all the way until the 1st week of FEB. Then, it was over and temps went and stayed AN the rest of the season into spring.

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Reminds me of what we saw in 76/77. Cold starting in October, really, all the way until the 1st week of FEB. Then, it was over and temps went and stayed AN the rest of the season into spring.

That reminds me of last year's winter, except it was warm the entire time

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23 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Reminds me of what we saw in 76/77. Cold starting in October, really, all the way until the 1st week of FEB. Then, it was over and temps went and stayed AN the rest of the season into spring.

I remember several winters in the 70's being very cold, and very dry.  There was also one (can't recall the year), that was very, very cold right up until we got precipitation, and then it was warm.

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2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Euro seasonal forecast thanks to NE thread. Winter ends come Feb, but starts now! lol

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49653-countdown-to-winter-2017-2018-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4660460

 

January shows warm for AKQ and cold for LWX.  Most likely, one of those will be wrong.  But, taken verbatim, hard to see us getting out of that pattern without the Virginia piedmont getting a nasty ice storm.

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1 minute ago, RIC_WX said:

January shows warm for AKQ and cold for LWX.  Most likely, one of those will be wrong.  But, taken verbatim, hard to see us getting out of that pattern without the Virginia piedmont getting a nasty ice storm.

I believe we are seeing a good semblance of the winter pattern setting up now. I like where I sit, to my surprise as well (lol), but I believe you guys are going to have your shots too with trailing systems and systems that miss us to the south.

Maybe I'm going overboard, but I really, really like what I'm seeing.

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6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I believe we are seeing a good semblance of the winter pattern setting up now. I like where I sit, to my surprise as well (lol), but I believe you guys are going to have your shots too with trailing systems and systems that miss us to the south.

Maybe I'm going overboard, but I really, really like what I'm seeing.

Your not the only one. Have liked what I was seeing develop for the last couple of weeks and to be honest it looks as it may be even better then I envisioned. Let's see how the models handle the longer ranges but if they are somewhat accurate I would think fun times will be ahead post day 10.

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3 hours ago, mattie g said:

WTH is that?

3 week forecasts from models we've never heard of  verify 100% of the time,   unless of course, it turns out to be a fake model planted by the Russians. 

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