Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

November Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 745
  • Created
  • Last Reply
7 minutes ago, Will (little rock) said:

hello from Arkansas!  I like to just follow threads like this being a winter lover and I was wondering your guy's thoughts on snow??? for Thanksgiving for the Central/Southern U.S. Thanks!

This part of the forum may be of some help:

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/14-centralwestern-states/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

AK vortex is hella impressive on the 12z EPS. Pretty much overwhelms any impact from NA blocking by day 11. Monster ridge in the central US. +850t anomalies over the east coast by day 12. That thing is a freaking wrecking ball.

It is.  GEFS quite different in that Day 12+ range, FWIW. But certainly an AK vortex is Nina climo.  If it does form, let's just hope it doesn't eliminate all the nice Canadian snowcover we've built up and will continue to build in the next 10 days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It is.  GEFS quite different in that Day 12+ range, FWIW. But certainly an AK vortex is Nina climo.  If it does form, let's just hope it doesn't eliminate all the nice Canadian snowcover we've built up and will continue to build in the next 10 days.

It's the one feature on the playing field that can really mess up what would be a pretty nice early cold period with some potential. Previous EPS runs have moved it around some, varied the strength (as expected), but this would represent a pretty significant change if accurate. As you said it fits Nina climo, so its going to be a constant battle. I am just hoping for at least a temporary reshuffling of the ridge/trough positioning in the NPAC for December, while at the same time getting a little help in the NA. New weeklies should be interesting.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

AK vortex is hella impressive on the 12z EPS. Pretty much overwhelms any impact from NA blocking by day 11. Monster ridge in the central US. +850t anomalies over the east coast by day 12. That thing is a freaking wrecking ball.

day 12 is Thanksgiving weekend.  Now wouldn’t that be a hoot if it ended up above normal in the east after all this blocking hullaballoo....tears in our turkey soup

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

 I was referring to day 10. I see now Cape was talking day 12. Sorry. Can't see day 12.

It gets uglier just beyond day 10, but there are pretty significant differences at day 10. Instead of a decently placed Western US ridge like previous runs, heights are pumping big time in the central US. Its one run, but it is the EPS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

day 12 is Thanksgiving weekend.  Now wouldn’t that be a hoot if it ended up above normal in the east after all this blocking hullaballoo....tears in our turkey soup

Well, it is what it is. Still a pretty long way off. GEFS still looks good, and its only one EPS run. I would honestly be happy if its chilly, like 45-50 for the holiday. In all likelihood even if we do get a few days of legit cold around T-day, it probably wouldn't snow in the lowlands if there is a storm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Well, it is what it is. Still a pretty long way off. GEFS still looks good, and its only one EPS run. I would honestly be happy if its chilly, like 45-50 for the holiday. In all likelihood even if we do get a few days of legit cold around T-day, it probably wouldn't snow in the lowlands if there is a storm.

When the EPS starts sniffing out warmth. i get nervous.  We have a tendency toward warm anomalies around here even when things look good.  We will wait...that EPS run was a warning flare way out to sea. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

When the EPS starts sniffing out warmth. i get nervous.  We have a tendency toward warm anomalies around here even when things look good.  We will wait...that EPS run was a warning flare way out to sea. 

I am always cautious anytime the models give us "good looks" when there is a trough in the GOA/Pacific NW. Like I said yesterday, its a fine line with the strength and position of that feature. We dealt with it almost all of last winter, and it was a significant contributor in leading us to failure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Well, it is what it is. Still a pretty long way off. GEFS still looks good, and its only one EPS run. I would honestly be happy if its chilly, like 45-50 for the holiday. In all likelihood even if we do get a few days of legit cold around T-day, it probably wouldn't snow in the lowlands if there is a storm.

Did you notice the end of the Happy hour GFS op run? It flips the NPAC again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yes! I would take that, if we can get some progression with the western ridge, while rebuilding some heights in the NA. Otherwise we might be stuck with a SE ridge lol.

It will all look different in six hours guaranteed.  Thanksgiving ilooks cold so best we can hope for...am curious to see GEFS though

Link to comment
Share on other sites

New edition of weeklies are rolling...looks like some real improvement in the NPAC, especially the first half of Dec, but sort of ambiguous for much of the lower 48. Overall temps look mild, but definitely looks like there will be some cold shots, although does not have the look of any real cold locking in. Hints of higher h5 heights in the NA at times, but would hesitate to say I see indications of any blocking until maybe the very end, which is the last week of December.

All in all, I dont hate it lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

56 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Did you notice the end of the Happy hour GFS op run? It flips the NPAC again.

Check out Happy Hour GEFS at the end. Pretty darn acceptable. :)

eta- probably the best we will see in reality overall is a very weak GOA trough at times. Odds of getting an Aleutian low with a ridge over AK/GOA, other than maybe for brief periods, is probably unrealistic in a Nina.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Bit of a step back from the 12z EURO, but the OP seemingly flips back and forth each run. 

Eskimo Joe, I am a Philly guy of course, but the Jan 26-27 2011 is in my top 5 fav storms. The initial WAA snows overachieved here and was a surprise during the morning (got like 3-5" i believe) then Part II had some of the heaviest snowfall of my life. You could almost see it accumulating in front of you. Think I got a foot from part 2 in only a few hours. Love that storm. 

I was in Lancaster at Millersville University studying Emergency Management in grad school.  We got lucky with the front end thump in Lancaster with about 5" - 7"...the second round was LEGIT and put down another 5" - 7".  The President of the University got thrown through the roller because they didn't let night classes out early and tons of kids got in accidents.  NBC 10 in Philadelphia had great coverage of the event:

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

New edition of weeklies are rolling...looks like some real improvement in the NPAC, especially the first half of Dec, but sort of ambiguous for much of the lower 48. Overall temps look mild, but definitely looks like there will be some cold shots, although does not have the look of any real cold locking in. Hints of higher h5 heights in the NA at times, but would hesitate to say I see indications of any blocking until maybe the very end, which is the last week of December.

All in all, I dont hate it lol.

I don't usually follow the weeklies. Better than last week's?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

I don't usually follow the weeklies. Better than last week's?

Probably not.

There isn't much skill beyond 15 days, and its only going to provide a basic idea of where the pattern might be heading based on where things are projected to be at day 15. More for fun than anything. Reality is it's probably not much better than flipping a coin lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Probably not.

There isn't much skill beyond 15 days, and its only going to provide a basic idea of where the pattern might be heading based on where things are projected to be at day 15. More for fun than anything. Reality is it's probably not much better than flipping a coin lol.

can’t remember did the weeklies predict the upcoming pattern with the blocking back in October?  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...