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stormtracker

Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

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12 minutes ago, JQPublic said:

St Barts has higher elevation (up to 800-850' above sea level) and the keys are no higher than 20' above sea level throughout all the keys.  It is going to be rough, especially given they were expected to get a 10-15' surge closest to landfall.

This made me think about the low lying parts of the Bahamas and the Cuban cays. They took Irma as a full fledged cat 5. The damage there must be incredible. Having seen what surge can do first hand during sandy it's infinitely more powerful then wind

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40 minutes ago, Fast11 said:

I noted a Miami Herald story quoted Monroe County EM as saying they have Dmort teams headed there.  A disaster mortuary team is used for a mass casualty event. They are used to hold and ID victims. The population of Monroe Co is about 77 K. I wonder how many left the chain and went inland?

 

Shep mentioned a mortuary team headed to the keys as well..  sounds bad.

in other news,  new storm report on the mainland -

afKkRC.jpg

 

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20 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The cell towers are in jeopardy of collapse once you start getting into the 120-130 mph range, so it's a good bet that cell service is problematic in the Keys right now.  I saw some reports of towers down around Naples, and we know they had gusts in the 130-140 mph range.

The larger scale issue for cell phone service is power and backhaul/transport.  Most sites don't have generators, but all of them have battery backup.  But without AC you can't run HVAC and the equipment overheats pretty fast.  For my company there is not a single site in the Key's chain that is up right now.

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Ok it's been heading North for several hours and is still heading north....would that not effect the track?  I would think they would have brought the cone a bit eastward.  

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2 minutes ago, NCWX said:

Ok it's been heading North for several hours and is still heading north....would that not effect the track?  I would think they would have brought the cone a bit eastward.  

They keep saying its going to go NW... At some point do you throw the models out and just simply watch the radar. This thing still isn't turning and it almost past their 11 pm advisory cone.

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1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said:

They keep saying its going to go NW... At some point do you throw the models out and just simply watch the radar. This thing still isn't turning and it almost past their 11 pm advisory cone.

It does look like it finally is now.  But it did look that way for a short time 2 hours ago and then resumed north motion again soon afterwards.

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5 minutes ago, OleFalls said:

This tweet shows a gif of all the NHC forecast tracks.

 

Some of those were quite bad, like the one showing Irma 300 mi N of PR moving toward the NW.

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6 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Some of those were quite bad, like the one showing Irma 300 mi N of PR moving toward the NW.

We need to remove the focus on the centerline. Irma was always within the NHC's cone of uncertainty (meaning their track error was less than the average track error over the last 5 years). 

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nice gif thing , the guy that made those NHC tracks.

but following up on minesaw's post. 

I've NEVER seen such an expansion of especially tropical storm force winds...hurricane force possibly as well.   Is there a way to check is this is a record, in terms of distance ?

That is very abnormally spread-out ..  friggin Huge.  (the most current part)

Wind History...look how thin it was in the beginning.

 

032540_wind_history.png

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

We need to remove the focus on the centerline. Irma was always within the NHC's cone of uncertainty (meaning their track error was less than the average track error over the last 5 years). 

We'll be battling these hot takes over the coming days because Irma didn't totally decimate Miami and/or make landfall at a certain point on an arbitrary scale. **** is intellectually void and thus ripe for widespread dissemination.

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15 minutes ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said:

nice gif thing , the guy that made those NHC tracks.

but following up on minesaw's post. 

I've NEVER seen such an expansion of especially tropical storm force winds...hurricane force possibly as well.   Is there a way to check is this is a record, in terms of distance ?

That is very abnormally spread-out ..  friggin Huge.  (the most current part)

Wind History...look how thin it was in the beginning.

 

032540_wind_history.png

Sandy's wind field exploded even larger along the East Coast. 

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Is the blowup in windfield and precipitation related to the extratropical transition of these systems? Irma is interacting with that cold front while still at a very low pressure.

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yea, forgot about Sandy.  Then again,  it was extra-tropical system. 

Irma could be the first one warm core hurricane with such a wind field.

Check out Jose, surprised he didn't make the northward turn yet.   Looks like he's chasing mommy

wv-animated.gif

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Extreme Wind Warning
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
1114 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2017

The National Weather Service in Ruskin has issued a

* Extreme Wind Warning for...
  Polk County in central Florida...

* Until 1245 AM EDT

* At 1111 PM EDT, National Weather Service Doppler radar and
  emergency management in Hardee County indicated a core of very
  strong winds, associated with the eyewall of Hurricane Irma that
  were moving northward into Polk County. Wind gusts greater than
  100 mph are possible across Polk County through 1230 AM. This is
  an dangerous and potentially life-threatening situation for those
  outdoors!

* Locations impacted include...
  Lakeland, Winter Haven, Haines City, Bartow, Lake Wales,
  Auburndale, Fussels Corner, Combee Settlement, Lakeland Linder
  Airport, Medulla, Jan Phyl Village, Poinciana, Fort Meade, Lake
  Alfred, Crooked Lake Park, Mulberry, Dundee, Frostproof, Davenport
  and Eagle Lake.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's going to be a pretty successful forecast for them. 

While technically wildly successful (Hell, GFS was only 30mb/60 miles off from LAST MONDAY!); frequenting boards by non-meteorological people showing immense dissatisfaction Miami was not obliterated.

I don't know how expectations of accuracy like Back To The Future 2 can be overcome.  Trying to resist the urge to punch them through the face on the internet, but expect that sort of public reaction.

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47 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

We need to remove the focus on the centerline. Irma was always within the NHC's cone of uncertainty (meaning their track error was less than the average track error over the last 5 years). 

I'd like to see them not use a center line. There's a lot of anecdotal evidence that people focus on that too much, especially non wx types.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

They waited too long to adjust the forecast to account for Cuba, though...that is my only qualm.

Yeah the intensity for sure (which as we know is the most difficult thing to forecast), but the track always showed Cuba was in play despite the protestations of some.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

I'd like to see them not use a center line. There's a lot of anecdotal evidence that people focus on that too much, especially non wx types.

I don't think that's lost on them either. When you click on a storm the NHC default is now no centerline forecast, just the cone and points. But it's only natural to draw a straight line between points.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I don't think that's lost on them either. When you click on a storm the NHC default is now no centerline forecast, just the cone and points. But it's only natural to draw a straight line between points.

True.  Media outlets could help by not showing a center line, but it seems like many of them still show it.  

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I know it gets tough with a high stakes system like Irma, but I wish people could keep the morality issues out of these threads.

I mean, you need to understand that its a weather forum, and people are intrigued by exciting weather. I understand that creates a moral conflict, but within this context that is their right. I think with  a calm pulse and clear head, most would admit that a forum of weather nuts is not the place to go to find the vast majority of people wishing big storms away.

No one controls it, and we all hope people do what they need to in order to remain safe.

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