Tropical Storm Jose

[andyhb]

11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Yes but we all know that these models will most likely change within the coming week.

And you're hoping they change so it comes into NYC.

[USCG RS]

It's fighting it right now as we've seen.  We'll have to see what remains once this loop is over.  It may regenerate but it's looking ugly.

 

That's why I'm not following this too closely yet

 

However the sheer and weakening may actually force it closer to the coast as it wont be strong enough to force its own way

 

[MattPetrulli]

Honestly wouldn't look at much of the guidance until the loop is complete

Really wouldn't like another US hurricane threat as Harvey and Irma have really drained the energy out of me. 

[Plokoon111]

20 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Honestly wouldn't look at much of the guidance until the loop is complete

Really wouldn't like another US hurricane threat as Harvey and Irma have really drained the energy out of me. 

That's for sure I've been hurricane lagged lately!

[Baroclinic Zone]

Pretty good agreement on the 18z GEFS on an OTS solution after the loop.  Not a single member with landfall.

[csnavywx]

10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Pretty good agreement on the 18z GEFS on an OTS solution after the loop.  Not a single member with landfall.

Track looks extremely sensitive to changes in the weakness in the ridge from ex-Irma and that closed low over southern Canada/upper Lakes. That feature in particular has high dprog/dt written all over it.

[aperson]

26 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Track looks extremely sensitive to changes in the weakness in the ridge from ex-Irma and that closed low over southern Canada/upper Lakes. That feature in particular has high dprog/dt written all over it.

 

Is the dprog/dt trend you're talking about the successive weakening of the ridge that's occurring in these runs? I assume that if this trend continues the system will be steered toward landfall by the low pressure system.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017091106&fh=66&xpos=0&ypos=80

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017091112&fh=60&xpos=0&ypos=80

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017091118&fh=54&xpos=0&ypos=81

[RU848789]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The latter post was in response to a question about what the climatology would be for a position forecast by the National Hurricane Center at 120 hours. It was hypothetical based only on the NHC's position verifying. The earlier message with the 30% landfall was based on Jose's actual 11 am position.

Sorry, didn't see the "forecast position" in the 2nd post - figured I was probably missing something...

[csnavywx]

11 minutes ago, aperson said:

 

Is the dprog/dt trend you're talking about the successive weakening of the ridge that's occurring in these runs? I assume that if this trend continues the system will be steered toward landfall by the low pressure system.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017091106&fh=66&xpos=0&ypos=80

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017091112&fh=60&xpos=0&ypos=80

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017091118&fh=54&xpos=0&ypos=81

That's ex-Irma. I was referring to the low/trough later (at D5-D7) north of the border/lakes.

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Sorry, didn't see the "forecast position" in the 2nd post - figured I was probably missing something...

No problem at all.

[donsutherland1]

Some updated historical climatology numbers for Jose's 11 pm position (27.1°N 69.5°W):

Criteria:
● Timeframe: 1851-present
● August-September hurricanes passing within 100 nautical miles of Jose’s position

U.S. Landfall: 23%
No U.S. Landfall: 77%

These figures are little changed from the 5 pm figures for no U.S. landfall (80%) and U.S. landfall (20%).

Of the 10 hurricanes that made landfall, 90% made their first landfall on the U.S. East Coast. 40% of the hurricanes making U.S. landfall made their first U.S. landfall in Florida (75% in Southeast Florida and 25% in Northeast Florida) and 30% made their first U.S. landfall in North Carolina. 30% of the hurricanes made their first U.S. landfall as major hurricanes.

Of the 34 hurricanes not making U.S. landfall, 14 (41%) made landfall in Atlantic Canada. Overall, based on historical climatology, tropical cyclones in the vicinity of Jose's 11 pm position were more likely to make landfall in Canada than the United States. Among those hurricanes making landfall in Canada, 50% made landfall in Nova Scotia and 50% made landfall in Newfoundland and Labrador. 

A cluster of the 12z ECMWF ensemble members supports landfall in Atlantic Canada (source of image: Weathernerds.org).
 

[NECT]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some updated historical climatology numbers for Jose's 11 pm position (27.1°N 69.5°W):

Criteria:
● Timeframe: 1851-present
● August-September hurricanes passing within 100 nautical miles of Jose’s position

U.S. Landfall: 23%
No U.S. Landfall: 77%

These figures are little changed from the 5 pm figures for no U.S. landfall (80%) and U.S. landfall (20%).

Of the 10 hurricanes that made landfall, 90% made their first landfall on the U.S. East Coast. 40% of the hurricanes making U.S. landfall made their first U.S. landfall in Florida (75% in Southeast Florida and 25% in Northeast Florida) and 30% made their first U.S. landfall in North Carolina. 30% of the hurricanes made their first U.S. landfall as major hurricanes.

Of the 34 hurricanes not making U.S. landfall, 14 (41%) made landfall in Atlantic Canada. Overall, based on historical climatology, tropical cyclones in the vicinity of Jose's 11 pm position were more likely to make landfall in Canada than the United States. Among those hurricanes making landfall in Canada, 50% made landfall in Nova Scotia and 50% made landfall in Newfoundland and Labrador. 

A cluster of the 12z ECMWF ensemble members supports landfall in Atlantic Canada (source of image: Weathernerds.org).
 

Does this sort of data correlate to any sort of forecasting confidence on any given storm, for instance, Jose? This is an honest question, not trying to play gotcha. I get how uncertain Jose's track is a week from now.

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, NECT said:

Does this sort of data correlate to any sort of forecasting confidence on any given storm, for instance, Jose? This is an honest question, not trying to play gotcha. I get how uncertain Jose's track is a week from now.

It only means that the U.S. East Coast and Atlantic Canada may need to monitor Jose. If it threatens landfall, Florida to North Carolina would probably be favored for the U.S. and there would be near equal prospects for Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador. There's enough of a probability of landfall (especially in Canada) that one cannot assume a no landfall situation. The ECMWF ensembles best reflect the risks as they currently stand.

[Rtd208]

DT (WxRisk) on Jose

https://www.wxrisk.com/jose-and-the-3-choices/

[Vice-Regent]

The UKmet (Blue Track) may have a better handle on the West Atlantic Ridging. I notice the 0z GFS was trending towards a stronger ridge.

[RU848789]

 

2 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

The UKmet (Blue Track) may have a better handle on the West Atlantic Ridging. I notice the 0z GFS was trending towards a stronger ridge.

Surprised no posts on tonight's other global model runs - None of the GFS, CMC, or Euro shows Jose coming within 300 miles of the US east coast.  Still a long ways out, but not looking like much of a threat.  

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, RU848789 said:

 

Surprised no posts on tonight's other global model runs - None of the GFS, CMC, or Euro shows Jose coming within 300 miles of the US east coast.  Still a long ways out, but not looking like much of a threat.  

It's increasingly looking like any landfall threat would exist for Canada, not the U.S. Last night's guidance did well to illustrate the diminishing threat to the U.S.

[MJO812]

47 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It's increasingly looking like any landfall threat would exist for Canada, not the U.S. Last night's guidance did well to illustrate the diminishing threat to the U.S.

Every model takes this ots except for the Ukie. I dont think this is a threat for the US but we should still keep an eye on it.

[donsutherland1]

47 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Every model takes this ots except for the Ukie. I dont think this is a threat for the US but we should still keep an eye on it.

The UKMET is clearly an outlier. With the guidance (low and declining number of ECMWF ensemble members) and historic climatology associated with Jose's current position all showing a declining likelihood of U.S. landfall, one can probably be reasonably confident that such landfall is a low probability. It's not zero, but we'll have to wait for the anti-cyclonic loop to be completed before even more confident assessments are possible. Canada is at higher risk of seeing landfall than the U.S. with Newfoundland and Labrador now about 1.5 times as likely to see landfall as Nova Scotia according to historic climatology. The ECMWF ensembles remain in good agreement that Newfoundland and Labrador has the higher Canadian landfall risk. An out to sea track that avoids both U.S. and Canada landfall still remains somewhat more likely than not, but it's too soon to be confident about that.

FWIW, here's the evolution of U.S. landfall probabilities from the historic data set.

[NJwx85]

I'm skeptical of an East coast threat since the trough is modeled to be way back over the Plains. The ridge doesn't look strong enough to induce enough of an East to West flow in order to push Jose into the Coast. We've seen this track attempted many times by long range modeling and I cannot think of a circumstance where this verified North of OBX.

[csnavywx]

The Euro OP/EPS mean was a pretty big change as it now simply has the remnant ex-Irma trough picking up Jose and pushing it out to sea by t+120. The shear induced over the cyclone also rips it up on the way out.

[jbenedet]

16 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

The Euro OP/EPS mean was a pretty big change as it now simply has the remnant ex-Irma trough picking up Jose and pushing it out to sea by t+120. The shear induced over the cyclone also rips it up on the way out.

Yea. It can't be emphasized enough that he needs to get to a more climatologically favored location before he has any chance of making it to the east coast. Problem 1 is just getting him near 75W, without gaining much latitude. Problem 2 is if we avoid problem 1 there currently isn't a deep negatively titled trough  diving into the eastern conus to pull him north/northwestward.

What is in favor of an east coast hit is weak westerlies and a WAR that has overperformed this season. If it wasn't for the latter, I probably would have written him off days ago...

As it is right now, we really are in a situation where the WAR has to flex its muscles to push him west, while the jet remains weak and displaced in Canada.

If we don't see the WAR overperform, pushing him further southwest between now and the next 84 hrs, it's probably safe to write him off as a fish.

[NJwx85]

Jose is starting to look a bit better on IR. I wonder if the shear has started to relax a bit.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

29 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Jose is starting to look a bit better on IR. I wonder if the shear has started to relax a bit.

Yeah an eye like feature has been popping out from time to time. It has consistently been producing very cold cloud tops. Most likely due to the very warm water it's over. 

Even the NHC track took an east move on the 11am advisory. So it looks like it survives but should only be a swell producer for the Carolinians and NE

[jbenedet]

We clearly lost that positioning that was showing up on previous runs of the euro and gfs around day 5 to take him near 75 W, off the SE coast. Perhaps it comes back...But this setup is fishtastic until/unless that changes on guidance.

[Vice-Regent]

22 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah an eye like feature has been popping out from time to time. It has consistently been producing very cold cloud tops. Most likely due to the very warm water it's over. 

Even the NHC track took an east move on the 11am advisory. So it looks like it survives but should only be a swell producer for the Carolinians and NE

12z UKmet tho. It's not over untill that model moves over to the Euro camp. Infact, it doubled down even more. It may be related to a stronger Jose being more SW due to the ridge pumping mechanism.

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, Vice-Regent said:

12z UKmet tho. It's not over untill that model moves over to the Euro camp. Infact, it doubled down even more. It may be related to a stronger Jose being more SW due to the ridge pumping mechanism.

I didn't see that.. it's still into Fla?

[Vice-Regent]

Just now, jbenedet said:

I didn't see that.. it's still into Fla?

Here is the text output for the 12z UKmet.

Quote

HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 27.2N 68.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.09.2017 0 27.2N 68.6W 977 61
0000UTC 13.09.2017 12 26.5N 66.8W 968 71
1200UTC 13.09.2017 24 25.4N 66.1W 971 66
0000UTC 14.09.2017 36 24.4N 66.4W 969 73
1200UTC 14.09.2017 48 23.9N 67.6W 967 76
0000UTC 15.09.2017 60 23.7N 69.4W 966 79
1200UTC 15.09.2017 72 23.9N 71.9W 965 78
0000UTC 16.09.2017 84 24.2N 74.5W 960 78
1200UTC 16.09.2017 96 24.7N 76.9W 949 81
0000UTC 17.09.2017 108 25.1N 79.0W 950 83
1200UTC 17.09.2017 120 25.8N 80.3W 945 81
0000UTC 18.09.2017 132 26.6N 81.3W 962 63
1200UTC 18.09.2017 144 27.0N 82.3W 972 63

 

[wxmx]

The 12z Ukmet is a Miami hit, and by the end of the run is entering the GoM around Fort Myers/Port Charlotte

[jbenedet]

13 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Here is the text output for the 12z UKmet.

 

Hmmm...That's night and day differences relative to the GFS/Euro from day 3 to day 5.

That's not long range guidance either...one of these two camps is going to cave bigtime soon...

Clearly the Ukmet is seeing a MUCH stronger WAR--the question is "why?"...

The Euro and GFS had a stronger WAR up until yesterday, but have since lost it. The Ukmet has remained steadfast though...