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Baroclinic Zone

Hurricane Irma Local Impacts/Evacuations

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Heard on NPR this morning that 70% of Puerto Rico utility customers are without power. That's millions of people. The utility company said it will take months to return power to many of these customers. Pretty incredible considering the eye wall stayed offshore.

I was unable to find an internet source to corroborate this. Please post if you find one....

 

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Some of PR has outages on a good day.  Afraid it's a common problem there which is why I think they are saying up to a month.  Poor people there.

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47 minutes ago, Lady Di said:

Some of PR has outages on a good day.  Afraid it's a common problem there which is why I think they are saying up to a month.  Poor people there.

Agreed, context is important...But I heard several months, on average. And it will be up to 6 months before all power is restored.

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I can't understand the rush to hastily push a long fused watch out like what Miami WFO just did. 

MLFHWW_noinfo.thumb.PNG.b3482fbb62cdc224b8aefce6883d0c47.PNG

Leaving 3/4 of it blank like this doesn't do a damn bit of good.  Everyone knows it's coming...wait an hour and fill the details in.  

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looking for some decent webcams of some of these islands about to get hit.   If you have em, post em.

(don't post in the main thread, as it usually overloads cam server...unless it's hosted on Youtube, etc)

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even if she rides along the east coast of FL (or slightly offshore), would there be devastating surge to the keys or would we need to see a more west track? have some good friends located in Key West

 

 

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3 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Heard on NPR this morning that 70% of Puerto Rico utility customers are without power. That's millions of people. The utility company said it will take months to return power to many of these customers. Pretty incredible considering the eye wall stayed offshore.

I was unable to find an internet source to corroborate this. Please post if you find one....

 

That was listed in the FEMA Daily Ops brief this morning.  It's legit.  The NPR article was a tad disingenuous (shocker) in the length of power outages.  The cities will be back online in and only the rural areas will be without power for the longest.

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So let's assume something like the worst case pans out and Miami gets into the eyewall.  What kind of impact are we looking at for the skyscrapers?  I would assume that many were built with hurricanes in mind, but it's still gotta be tough to protect against something like this.  

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9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

So let's assume something like the worst case pans out and Miami gets into the eyewall.  What kind of impact are we looking at for the skyscrapers?  I would assume that many were built with hurricanes in mind, but it's still gotta be tough to protect against something like this.  

Andrew blew out a bunch of windows on the upper floors, but the structures should be fine. 

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Just now, psv88 said:

Andrew blew out a bunch of windows on the upper floors, but the structures should be fine. 

What about warping of buildings and stuff like that, if it's a direct hit?

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1 hour ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said:

looking for some decent webcams of some of these islands about to get hit.   If you have em, post em.

(don't post in the main thread, as it usually overloads cam server...unless it's hosted on Youtube, etc)

http://www.ptztv.com/

 

Lot of port cams from south FLA as well as Bahamas. St. Marteen is also in there but down obviously.

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9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

So let's assume something like the worst case pans out and Miami gets into the eyewall.  What kind of impact are we looking at for the skyscrapers?  I would assume that many were built with hurricanes in mind, but it's still gotta be tough to protect against something like this.  

 

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Andrew blew out a bunch of windows on the upper floors, but the structures should be fine. 

 

Interesting article from a couple of years ago about Miami's high-rises. Some of which were repaired/rebuilt after Wilma didn't do it to the new, stricter code. And then there's one with "impact-resistant glass" -

 

Quote

 

At least one Miami high-rise, 1450 Brickell, completed in 2010, was built to even tougher standards than the latest code requires.

Impact-resistant glass that is strong enough to endure a 9-pound, six-foot-long, 2x4 piece of lumber fired end on at 34 miles an hour is required for windows up to 30-feet above ground. The idea is that most flying debris originates from ground level.

Above that, builders can use small-missile protection – impact glass that can survive test strikes by steel ball bearings traveling 50 miles per hour followed by wind tests.

The building at 1450 Brickell uses the stronger glass bottom to top.

“We have the whole building cladded with what is required to the first 30 feet,’’ said Alan Ojeda, president and CEO of Rilea Group, the developer of tower, who also maintains his office there.

Another extra: In addition to the required back-up generator to provide electricity for elevators and emergency lighting, the building has a second generator to keep air conditioning and full power if the regular service is cut off.

“We have a second generator with 80 tons of diesel that could run full time for about a week,’’ said Ojeda.

“The stronger glass prevents an implosion of the glass,’’ he said. “We have tenants who are in 24-hour mode, dealing with Hong Kong, Europe, the West Coast. They cannot afford to be without power.’’

 


 

 

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/article24739255.html

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8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

What about warping of buildings and stuff like that, if it's a direct hit?

Having represented structural engineers for many years, i think the buildings will be fine. The steel wont warp because it is designed to take into account all concentric and eccentric forces which might pull on the frame. Further, the steel is connected with massive connections, which would not break. The issue is the roofs, and any cranes. Those can become missiles. 

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21 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

So let's assume something like the worst case pans out and Miami gets into the eyewall.  What kind of impact are we looking at for the skyscrapers?  I would assume that many were built with hurricanes in mind, but it's still gotta be tough to protect against something like this.  

I was just reading http://www.miamiherald.com/real-estate/article168905202.html

This passage stuck out at me.  Given the winds in this storm so far, if it doesn't weaken and hits with the strongest part of the storm we could be approaching 200MPH at skyscraper rooftop elevation.  Also, not sure how confident I'd be in those MPH ratings, the Davis 2 we were watching a couple days ago on one of those islands claims 200MPH and died at 113.

 

Quote

The cooling tower atop high-rises is the thing that keeps the AC running throughout the building. In the case of a hurricane, the unit’s breakers will be shut off for safety, so get ready to sweat.

At least you don’t have to worry about the tower getting blown off the roof. According to Jose Carmero, building director for the City of Miami, cooling towers are built to sustain winds of 175 mph, just like the rest of the building.

“They are secure,” Carmero says. “I’d only worry about them if we had a storm that had 200 mph winds. In that case, I’m not so sure.”

 

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10 minutes ago, cwc said:

strongest winds are in the NE sector of the eyewall, currently progged to be the sector OTS.  MIA may escape by a RCH

I wouldn't count on it.

irmair2.thumb.png.340399aad31b85e176ceab

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8 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

I wouldn't count on it.

irmair2.thumb.png.340399aad31b85e176ceab

Also, I think it's fair to wonder how much weaker western eyewall winds would be at elevation, which is why I left it at "eyewall" when it comes to the tall buildings.  

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My mother in law owns a mobile home on North Hutchinson Island - any ideas on impacts there? She is retiring at the end of September and planned to head down there shortly after but is terrified that she may not have a home left after Irma.

Thank you in advance for your insight.

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7 minutes ago, hiitsjenna said:

My mother in law owns a mobile home on North Hutchinson Island - any ideas on impacts there? She is retiring at the end of September and planned to head down there shortly after but is terrified that she may not have a home left after Irma.

Thank you in advance for your insight.

mobile home on barrier island?  likely toast with the current tragectory

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the buildings arent going to fall down.  they will get their windows blown out, and all the contents of the buildings will blow out.  really no way around that

I have a pic from andrew of an office building on US1 that suffered this fate.

I rode out Andrew in a concrete block structure, ate northern eyewall the whole time.  we had 5 windows that litterally popped out, didnt shatter, just popped when the frames started twisting.

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Interesting piece from a perhaps unexpected source:

Quote

[GasBuddy] tells TechCrunch that it’s now seeing hundreds of gas stations across Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina without fuel. It says the hardest hit cities are Miami (30% of stations are out of gas), West Palm Beach (29%), Fort Myers-Naples (20%), Tampa (13%), and Orlando (9% are out.)

https://techcrunch.com/2017/09/07/as-irma-nears-florida-governor-tells-residents-to-use-gas-buddy-expedia-google-maps-more/

 

Consider that a lot of states were already experiencing fuel shortages thanks to Harvey's impact on U.S. refining capacity. 

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12 minutes ago, cwc said:

the buildings arent going to fall down.  they will get their windows blown out, and all the contents of the buildings will blow out.  really no way around that

I have a pic from andrew of an office building on US1 that suffered this fate.

I rode out Andrew in a concrete block structure, ate northern eyewall the whole time.  we had 5 windows that litterally popped out, didnt shatter, just popped when the frames started twisting.

This. Worst case scenario concrete or steel framed skyscrapers will be standing-but with many/most windows blown out and extensive damage to interiors due to wind and water damage. That Holiday Inn and the Burger King Headquarters would be good examples...or the hotel in New Orleans with mattresses getting sucked out, or the Bank One builiding in Fort Worth that got hit by the tornado. 

 

I wonder what the roofing material is on some of these skyscrapers( or even just highrises 6 floors or more) in Miami? Also the mechanical equipment, etc.-that could get blown of and become projectiles? I remember in Alicia in Houston the roofing materials caused extensive window loss to adjacent skyscrapers.

 

*All of this with a worst case scenario

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14 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Looks like Turks and Caicos are about to get rocked.

Anyone have a link to webcam? Wasn't able to find any that were active.

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