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Fall 2017 Model Mehham

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Next few weeks one of those maddening patterns where all the cold stays west of the apps and we continue to rot with above normal 

Well yes and no. You need to look at the whole picture. Would you be happy if we had a one eyed pig teleconnect to a ridge in SE Canada supplying faux cold air? I wouldn't. 

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Looks more up and down than we have seen the past month or so. Shots of AN and BN. More exciting than ridgeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

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Yup Scott ...

General reader: 'was going to expound on it all but ...no need now  :)  I will a little, anyway, because I'm a certifiable ranter -

Pretty straight forward -EPO exertion results (perhaps) from WPO domain space changes transmitting down stream...

(What is intriguing is that initially, the MJO is out of phase with this showing a robust, present presentation in early Phase 5 at moderate to strong strength. It does eventually rocket thru 6 ..but then collapses near 7 ... but, by and large, that evolution is partially out of phase, which is interesting.  I've always thought the MJO was more of a positive vs negative feed-back forcing, so, mm... it's not absolutely necessary for that particular index to be in sync with the rest of the hemisphere - )

Additionally, "Lan" will positively feedback on many of these changes by dumping huge latent heat fluxes in the down stream evolving nodes of the maelstrom that will benefit from that physically.  The is the slightly longer version of the 'recurving typhoon' signficance 

Anyway, pretty rhetoric aside, I feel there is some chance that these changes that are readily observable among the operational runs, as well as their related ensemble indexes, could actually be more amplified... These sort of big mass-field 'teleconnector convergent' deals tend to hammer and accelerate the pattern a bit beyond the models when they occur.  That's the slightly longer version of, don't be surprised if the impending cold wave is a bit more proficient. 

Which immediately lends to the question regarding winter and chances therein ...but we'll set the table first if that's alight. 

Regardless, the lights just came on at the pub.  This party appears to be in last call this week. I agree that initially the basic wave spacing argument nods to the Northern Rockies and out through the plains, but, I have a separate hypothesis that suggests for me that the cold could accelerate E/S but a little.  The PNA is being unseated like a third year Trump by the EPO...and that means that initially, the EPO cold load might benefit from a better wave spacing construct compared to if/when the PNA were initially flatter prior to the EPO's onset.  Also, the NAO is showing signs of accelerating negative, which I don't believe is related to those Pac changes, and becomes a dark horse for the circulation structure E of 100 W (Lakes upper OV, NE)... 

Interesting stuff. You know I was tongue and cheeking when I mentioned 'first snow in sight' in that other thread last night ...but this is more than less that thought criteria there.

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40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup Scott ...

General reader: 'was going to expound on it all but ...no need now  :)  I will a little, anyway, because I'm a certifiable ranter -

Pretty straight forward -EPO exertion results (perhaps) from WPO domain space changes transmitting down stream...

(What is intriguing is that initially, the MJO is out of phase with this showing a robust, present presentation in early Phase 5 at moderate to strong strength. It does eventually rocket thru 6 ..but then collapses near 7 ... but, by and large, that evolution is partially out of phase, which is interesting.  I've always thought the MJO was more of a positive vs negative feed-back forcing, so, mm... it's not absolutely necessary for that particular index to be in sync with the rest of the hemisphere - )

Additionally, "Lan" will positively feedback on many of these changes by dumping huge latent heat fluxes in the down stream evolving nodes of the maelstrom that will benefit from that physically.  The is the slightly longer version of the 'recurving typhoon' signficance 

Anyway, pretty rhetoric aside, I feel there is some chance that these changes that are readily observable among the operational runs, as well as their related ensemble indexes, could actually be more amplified... These sort of big mass-field 'teleconnector convergent' deals tend to hammer and accelerate the pattern a bit beyond the models when they occur.  That's the slightly longer version of, don't be surprised if the impending cold wave is a bit more proficient. 

Which immediately lends to the question regarding winter and chances therein ...but we'll set the table first if that's alight. 

Regardless, the lights just came on at the pub.  This party appears to be in last call this week. I agree that initially the basic wave spacing argument nods to the Northern Rockies and out through the plains, but, I have a separate hypothesis that suggests for me that the cold could accelerate E/S but a little.  The PNA is being unseated like a third year Trump by the EPO...and that means that initially, the EPO cold load might benefit from a better wave spacing construct compared to if/when the PNA were initially flatter prior to the EPO's onset.  Also, the NAO is showing signs of accelerating negative, which I don't believe is related to those Pac changes, and becomes a dark horse for the circulation structure E of 100 W (Lakes upper OV, NE)... 

Interesting stuff. You know I was tongue and cheeking when I mentioned 'first snow in sight' in that other thread last night ...but this is more than less that thought criteria there.

I agree...good point about the recurve from Lan.  I'm just happy it appears the doldrums are mostly over.

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Impressive look on the 12z GFS in the extended. Yes...I know it's extended...but the ensembles do support something similar.

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3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nobody cares about an uber cold and a perfect pattern in late Oct into early Nov. 

Exactly!  

Today is fabulous.  I'll take this for another couple weeks.  Just gorgeous weather.    And nobody wants winter to come more than me, but I can wait another month, when it should start to get cold...and it starts to matter.  What good is cold/below normal now??  In fact it just sucks.  Around 60 is fine for the next few weeks.  And these days where we are in the 70's..I have no issues with them.  A month from now I will..but not now. 

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yeah not shocked... per all discourse heretofore and looking forward, i think semblances more akin than not to this are favored in the models. 

 

comical almost ...how lying in wait there is a hurricane in the western Caribbean rattling around -

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Exactly what -

is that some reverse psycho-babble thing? 

The purpose at hand: those of us who are interested in the greater ambit of Meteorology and weather phenomenon, find the ensuing changes quite fascinating I'm sure. 

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Exactly was a response to Runnaway.  I'm enjoying the beautiful mild weather.  That's all.  I'm fine with warmth right now...it'll cool off soon enough.

 

Sorry if I'm not appreciating the meteorology as much as you, or as much as you think I should be.   

 

 

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Exactly was a response to Runnaway.  I'm enjoying the beautiful mild weather.  That's all.  I'm fine with warmth right now...it'll cool off soon enough.

 

Sorry if I'm not appreciating the meteorology as much as you, or as much as you think I should be.   

 

 

And my post was a response to DIT complaining that the trough will be a tick too far west in late Oct. But he gets angry at us very easily if we don’t see it his way. I recommend meditation. 

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Let's keep this pattern going and then flip the script on Dec 1st. When it is actually meaningful. Perfect transition to me. Not that it will happen but one can dream.

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3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And my post was a response to DIT complaining that the trough will be a tick too far west in late Oct. But he gets angry at us very easily if we don’t see it his way. I recommend meditation. 

Because It sucks. We want chill in late Oct and Nov. A warm Nov almost always potebfs a mild un snowy winter. Have it saying this wx is great and let’s keep it going as long as possible. The longer this last.. the higher the chances of a **** winter. So I guess enjoy 60’s and 70’s in Nov . 

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Because It sucks. We want chill in late Oct and Nov. A warm Nov almost always potebfs a mild un snowy winter. Have it saying this wx is great and let’s keep it going as long as possible. The longer this last.. the higher the chances of a **** winter. So I guess enjoy 60’s and 70’s in Nov . 

potebfs

Still trying to figure out what word that is.

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16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Because It sucks. We want chill in late Oct and Nov. A warm Nov almost always potebfs a mild un snowy winter. Have it saying this wx is great and let’s keep it going as long as possible. The longer this last.. the higher the chances of a **** winter. So I guess enjoy 60’s and 70’s in Nov . 

Mid to late Nov is a different story though. I wouldn’t sweat ohio valley trough position last week of Oct as you earlier stated, that is all I was saying. 

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