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Fall Banter & General Discussion/Observations

CapturedNature

By CapturedNature,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

You know ... it's interesting. 

Before the advent of the Internet and the creation of these virtual communities, "communities" had to suffer spatial distance ...and that comparative untimely relay of information (I think) gave people processing time. There was actually two eras, therein: the last spanned on, 70 years or so.. People had to pick up what was called an actual telephone, and/or trek journey to gather first hand accounts. 

Before that? Communities REALLY had to suffer the space-time-continuum's gaps. Big weather events that hit western(eastern) zones, respectively, the other side wouldn't even know about it until days weeks ore even months later.  People in CT considered people around Boston as 'back east.'  When the brethren from back east came for a visit, that's when you found out that anything ever happened ... small talk between sips of a holiday nog.  Those conversation weakly register, "Hm, we haven't had as much rain" and that was that, a passing muse about the weather being different in one location versus someplace else.  

Now? angst, if not vitriol. I wonder why that is.  Not to digress to wildly ...it seems regardless of topic the Internet polarizes points of views and perspectives in an exceedingly proficient, yet, unnecessary way. 

It almost seems like because we all share in a similar, albeit virtual, social media domain space (in our case, New England sub-forum), people argue and smolder in a private resentment because they can't agree while standing around on the same property while it happens.  

and I think that's it, that same property sarcasm holds some truth in a way. I read posts from random web-raff and so much of it, it really does not seem far removed from my cat's perception of the world - God rest her soul. She used to stick her head inside empty grocery bags, with her whole ass and tail sticking out whenever something startled her "phew, that was close; it almost saw me". 

I think their is a similar phenomenon going on, when one conflates zones inside the same physical experience ...then use that logically flawed perception to formulate opinions of both the event at hand, and the people that may be celebrating differently. Obviously we're talking about the 'in-my-backyard' phenomenon here, but I'm looking at that phenomenon from outside the box/approach. In that I don't think it is just the weather-related interest groups on the web that suffer that.  I think the Internet is going to almost need an evolution of peoples ability to perceive the world, more importantly, the that other's may not share in their perceptions - because in very simple terms, the 'world' at the other end of the WAN is not the same world as in your living room.  But here's the thing: that statement is obvious ..probably even to the cat. Yet, it doesn't stop people from sticking their head in the virtual bag and seeming as though the world is in there with them. 

fascinating...  People need a stick'em note pasted to their hand held or PC or tablet or whatever contraption that reads, who ever you are about to inadvertently insult, they have no idea what you are currently experiencing.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

snow November 5? 

why not - 

don't come back with because it's day 10 either...  That's too easy :) 

seriously, I think that period between roughly the 30th through the 10th of November has a decent shot, whether this 12z GFS is right or not...  

Markers for me are the intense -EPO/ +MJO in Phase 7-8 migration... Those pattern backers should tend to enhance the NW flow/cold loading into the Canadian shield regardless of the PNA.   Have to also remember ...the PNA is a truly ginormous spatial domain - it's possible to maintain an amplified PNAP during a -PNA ... which is incarnate of the -PNA/+EPO couplet, which appears to be where we are headed.  

So while obviously focusing on a particular event in the charts in that time range is probably more foolhardy, I wouldn't be shocked at all if that gets the LEK engine rollin on one or two occasions if not some sort of clipper-esque deal.  

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

snow November 5? 

why not - 

don't come back with because it's day 10 either...  That's too easy :) 

seriously, I think that period between roughly the 30th through the 10th of November has a decent shot, whether this 12z GFS is right or not...  

Markers for me are the intense -EPO/ +MJO in Phase 7-8 migration... Those pattern backers should tend to enhance the NW flow/cold loading into the Canadian shield regardless of the PNA.   Have to also remember ...the PNA is a truly ginormous spatial domain - it's possible to maintain an amplified PNAP during a -PNA ... which is incarnate of the -PNA/+EPO couplet, which appears to be where we are headed.  

So while obviously focusing on a particular event in the charts in that time range is probably more foolhardy, I wouldn't be shocked at all if that gets the LEK engine rollin on one or two occasions if not some sort of clipper-esque deal.  

I agree. It's not just this run either, as there were several others with a small snow squall or two somewhere in NNE and 'Becks of New York. Something to keep an eye on while tracking the upcoming sou'easter.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

There's def some signs of good cold that could clip us in the next 10 days...the best will obviously be centered to our west and northwest over the Canadian prairies and N plains, but there's plenty of opportunity to bleed some of that over us from time to time with individual shortwaves acting as the boosters...time another s/w on its heels and we could see either legit widespread flakes or even an accumulating event if we got enough stars to line up. It will probably be a bit of a roller coaster in temps during the next 2 weeks though given the exceptional cold lurking and the trough well to our west which will also allow for some mild air to intrude upon us at times.

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LurkerBoy

LurkerBoy

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's def some signs of good cold that could clip us in the next 10 days...the best will obviously be centered to our west and northwest over the Canadian prairies and N plains, but there's plenty of opportunity to bleed some of that over us from time to time with individual shortwaves acting as the boosters...time another s/w on its heels and we could see either legit widespread flakes or even an accumulating event if we got enough stars to line up. It will probably be a bit of a roller coaster in temps during the next 2 weeks though given the exceptional cold lurking and the trough well to our west which will also allow for some mild air to intrude upon us at times.

This sounds good! How mild do you think? Some folks talking about re-torch week 2 of Nov. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

This sounds good! How mild do you think? Some folks talking about re-torch week 2 of Nov. 

Retorch is def possible 2nd week of Nov...but that is getting pretty far out. The EPO still looks pretty solidly negative at that point on most guidance, but we can still torch on a -EPO...esp this early in the season with the shorter wavelengths and a solid western trough. We would end up on the mild side of a gradient pattern for a time. If the western trough isn't that deep and the EPO is solidly negative, I'd favor a colder scenario.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Am I wrong? I don’t see much support for BN temps lasting longer than a day or so 

Maybe some stretches of a couple of days, but people need to look outside the IMBY syndrome and look at the pattern. We are not going to get the brunt of the cold, and that is ok. That does not mean any bad sign for winter. It's a result of a more -EPO and short wavelengths. Get cimo baked in more and the same H5 look would be a lot better later in december. I'm more concerned of how long it lasts. I hope it does not go to crap.

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