lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, jojo762 said: There's a bit of mid-level NW shear right now on the system IIRC, believe Levi from TT mentioned it yesterday on twitter as well a second tonight. Hindering it just a touch... Crazy to think how long the system has had an annual shape to it for and how beautiful it has looked on satellite for a solid 24 hours now, obviously it has to change at some point though. Also just wanted to note that this became a Cat 5 at 8AM yesterday and the NHC forecast keeps this thing at cat 5 intensity until around 8AM Friday which would give it about 72 hours of being at cat 5 which I believe would tie the record for the longest at cat 5 strength with a couple other storms. Somebody posted an image a while ago about the longest lasting cat 5s but can't find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWeatherGuys Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 So while the Euro has been pushing Irma ever more west, is the GFS somehow looking to be the correct data set? It seemed to me that the GFS (yes, I know it's still way too early yet) has had Irma tracking slightly off FL Coast or slightly inland around MIA, then straight north with a swift turn into the GA / SC region with a NW track into the central PA region (although no longer Tropical at that point). Thoughts? Or too early yet?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Mean Layer wind analysis does show some weak shear to the NW of the cyclone. Not a lot, but doesn't take much to see minor impacts to certain quadrants. In this case, very minor impacts are expected and core of hurricane will be just fine and maintain Cat 5 status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 The eye, relatively, looks a bit ragged currently. Perhaps another ERC, or a blip with that sheer. Or perhaps even land interaction having a bit of an effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griizzcoat Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Things are going down hill fast in Port de Gustavia--- see web cams back on pg 148. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 this cam in st. barthelemy is insane right now. they are just getting the eye wall right now per radar. http://st-barth.com/livecam3.html been watching this pws, updates every 20 secs https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=ISAINTBA2#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Now the pws has stopped responding, i assume it's been destroyed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Can't they make a sturdy weather station? Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 There has been a slight west wobble which is bad for St. Marteen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, mempho said: Can't they make a sturdy weather station? Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Ummm...140mph debris filled air....you want to flip the bill for a 100% high grade titanium station?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said: Ummm...140mph debris filled air....you want to flip the bill for a 100% high grade titanium station?? I don't think a titanium anemometer would even hold up to a 140mph impact with a dozen plus pound object. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Ummm...140mph debris filled air....you want to flip the bill for a 100% high grade titanium station??The debris- didn't think about that! Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, mempho said: The debris- didn't think about that! Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk read this: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/SSHWS-Masters-et-al.pdf That little weather station was 10/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 They've modified the track: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 http://www.mahobeachcam.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 One saving grace right now is that the NHC has Irma weakening from 185mph to 140mph on approach into FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, Crazy4Wx said: One saving grace right now is that the NHC has Irma weakening from 185mph to 140mph on approach into FL. Only due to uncertainty w/ PR & Cuba. Once that's figured out I doubt they'll show so much weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Mountain_Patch said: Only due to uncertainty w/ PR & Cuba. Once that's figured out I doubt they'll show so much weakening. Completely. If it avoids the island-shredding, nothing but jetfuel and practically non-existent shear straight in to Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Through 72 the GFS is slightly W of 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HO1088 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles The eye has gone directly overhead Barbuda, St. Bart's and St. Maarten. Anguilla looks to spend the most time in the eyewall out of all of the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 At 96 heading N/NNW. Showing 888mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Riding up FLA east coast, a hair E of 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Personally not buying the E shift lock-stock-and-barrell. I pray it's correct given all the data ingested. A wobble here and a wobble there...T(-)4D. There is no definite discernible scientific reason to conclude an outcome. Even if a Mathew track evolved this b**ch has a much larger wind-field combine that with a track just 10 miles to the W is huge. God I pray the E track is real. 12Z will just narrow the posts a little more, beware of that butterfly effect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 15 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said: Only due to uncertainty w/ PR & Cuba. Once that's figured out I doubt they'll show so much weakening. They specifically mentioned shear in the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 6z GFS is going to hammer SC once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 At 120 off Space Coast of FLA, slightly W of 0z. A few miles will make a difference wherever it landfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Landfall around Hilton Head to Fripp Island at 132, showing 908mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 A friend of mine who coordinates pallet shipments for FEMA just emailed me and told me the National Hurricane Center has requested a FEMA pallet of bottled water and MREs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 What is the UKIE showing; I believe it had a good handle on Matthew last year hugging the FL East Coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Anyone have the 06z hurricane models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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