jbenedet Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, jacindc said: Is it really that much further east than 6Z? More than just a few miles? Correct. I modified my original post. Little change. Just maintained same general track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Landfall is not east though, its southwest of where it was and impacts GA much more this run than SC Exactly... Not really an "east trend" per se... Just the model making minor adjustments over the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Great set of web cams from across St. Barths. http://st-barth.com/livecam3.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Last 15 hours from GOES 16 Interesting to see the structure improve so much yet the cloud tops have clearly warmed. Is that just due to diurnal maximum or something else at play here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, bobbutts said: Last 15 hours from GOES 16 Interesting to see the structure improve so much yet the cloud tops have clearly warmed. Is that just due to diurnal maximum or something else at play here? Sunlight warming the clouds since it's daytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 So I was looking at all the buoys with data around the Keys (not much data further away towards Cuba) - water temps are 85-90F. Jet fuel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Recon about to make another pass through the NE/SW eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 I will however say that the trend of the GFS to hang the trough back longer over the east coast needs to be watched very closely. I'd be hedging against a track west of the 12z GFS until we see that trend stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Exactly... Not really an "east trend" per se... Just the model making minor adjustments over the last few runs. Nothing past Hour 96 can be taken seriously because models and their individual runs have been all over the place - this thing can still end up striking somewhere on the Gulf Coast or anywhere on the eastern seaboard from south Florida to Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navvet8992 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Cmc stays west into Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Really there was an east trend on the last run and this run seems to confirm it, a few miles makes all the difference to somebody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, jojo762 said: Recon about to make another pass through the NE/SW eyewall. We all sit here behind our computers amazed at the strength of the storm and arguing over minutia. But these guys. It must be one hell of a ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Not a weather forecast that you want to have..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, TriPol said: Is there a map to see how the SST of right now compare to the avg 30-year sst in the Atlantic and Caribbean? I'm wondering why the waters are so hot right now? This has been many years we've seen them, but FL has had an exceptionally warm summer as well (relative to avg for them). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Showing up better on Martinique radar http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Great site to book mark. GOES 16 visible meso sector of Irma: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Only at 980mb so far and Recon already encountering 125kt FL winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherboy80 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Yeah - too much can still happen with that trof hanging back a bit. As emphasized by the 06Z GEFS the spread is quite large. Is there any other solution showing that yet? Curious to see what the 12Z Euro does now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boo radley Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Hopefully all tourists have been evacuated or found sturdy shelter, what impact is this looking to have on Leeward Islands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, jojo762 said: Only at 980mb so far and Recon already encountering 125kt FL winds. I'd love to hear the meteorological explanation for this decoupling -> I mean have we ever seen a 180mph cane with a pressure around 930mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, Wmsptwx said: Hopefully all tourists have been evacuated or found sturdy shelter, what impact is this looking to have on Leeward Islands? If you get in that inner eyewall, it's basically high-end F3 / low-end F4 tornado-like damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Canadian slams through a good chunk of cuba and goes into the eastern gulf and makes landfall just east of apalachicola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, pazzo83 said: I'd love to hear the meteorological explanation for this decoupling -> I mean have we ever seen a 180mph cane with a pressure around 930mb? Surely one of the more experienced, "tropical experts" in here might be able to chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Anyone have thoughts on the NAO forecast flipping to negative by the 10th? Obviously not set in stone but this may argue for a weaker WAR and deeper trough over the eastern CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, pazzo83 said: I'd love to hear the meteorological explanation for this decoupling -> I mean have we ever seen a 180mph cane with a pressure around 930mb? And the craziest thing is it's not like Irma is the size of Charley. It's not huge but by no means is it tiny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 I will however say that the trend of the GFS to hang the trough back longer over the east coast needs to be watched very closely. I'd be hedging against a track west of the 12z GFS until we see that trend stop.That trough/ULL is make or break on the forecast. I still set my sights up the EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Is there any reason to doubt the SFMR readings the NHC used as the basis for the 180mph intensity? When I checked satellite this morning I was expecting 160-170mph based on the size of the eye and the warmer cloud tops than last night (also warmer compared to the strongest Cat5s on IR). So I was surprised to see the NHC had set the intensity to 180mph. The central pressure also seems a little high for a strong Cat5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, skierinvermont said: Is there any reason to doubt the SFMR readings the NHC used as the basis for the 180mph intensity? When I checked satellite this morning I was expecting 160-170mph based on the size of the eye and the warmer cloud tops than last night (also warmer compared to the strongest Cat5s on IR). So I was surprised to see the NHC had set the intensity to 180mph. The central pressure also seems a little high for a strong Cat5. Just got 160kt SFMR, so I would believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Looks like recon measured roughly 160kts SFMR in the NE eyewall... near 185mph. Extrapolated pressure of 923.7... STILL strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 163230 1704N 05839W 6965 02754 9623 +099 +099 134145 150 136 075 00 163300 1703N 05840W 6973 02711 9573 +106 +106 138145 151 147 066 00 163330 1702N 05841W 6961 02668 9504 +115 +115 139132 141 160 046 00 163400 1701N 05842W 6962 02616 //// +109 //// 137121 133 160 024 05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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