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Tim from Springfield (IL)

July 2017 Discussion

292 posts in this topic

Looks like at least in the Springfield area, a seasonal upcoming weekend to kick off July.  NWS point and click for parts of the Springfield area (specifically Chatham) lists 82/64 for Saturday and 83/65 for Sunday, and a storm chance for Monday (and high 84).

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The GFS Brings the heat to areas just west of the subforum early next week, then slides it to just south of the subforum for late next week. Meanwhile, we stay seasonal. :sizzle:

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3 hours ago, IWXwx said:

The GFS Brings the heat to areas just west of the subforum early next week, then slides it to just south of the subforum for late next week. Meanwhile, we stay seasonal. :sizzle:

Euro brings the heat northward, as the ridge flexes its muscles, I would tend to agree with the Euro. Not to mention the GFS has been bad for a while now, case in point how it handled Cindy especially at day 5 and beyond, for example.

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It looks like the Euro might be trying to cave. If we won't get anomalous heat or severe, I'm rooting for comfort.

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13 hours ago, IWXwx said:

It looks like the Euro might be trying to cave. If we won't get anomalous heat or severe, I'm rooting for comfort.

Looking through the long term... more of the same. Zonal flow - low pressure - cold front - upper level low for a few days - Wash, rinse, repeat. 

I didn't see one day through most of July where the western ridge finally makes its way east. We've been 2017'd. 

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19 hours ago, IWXwx said:

It looks like the Euro might be trying to cave. If we won't get anomalous heat or severe, I'm rooting for comfort.

 

5 hours ago, Harry Perry said:

Looking through the long term... more of the same. Zonal flow - low pressure - cold front - upper level low for a few days - Wash, rinse, repeat. 

I didn't see one day through most of July where the western ridge finally makes its way east. We've been 2017'd. 

Does this look promising for cool weather in the extended? 

 

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Looking like another torchy month for the entire country.

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6 hours ago, Harry Perry said:

Looking through the long term... more of the same. Zonal flow - low pressure - cold front - upper level low for a few days - Wash, rinse, repeat. 

I didn't see one day through most of July where the western ridge finally makes its way east. We've been 2017'd. 

Just wondering, what model were you looking at to see the dailies through most of July?

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Just wondering, what model were you looking at to see the dailies through most of July?

I know not to put much stock into it, but was mainly looking at the CFS and some ECMWF as support at 850mb. I think it ran through July 20 and was definitely a roller coaster. 

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I'm thinking July will be another roller coaster month like June.

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15 minutes ago, Powerball said:

I'm thinking July will be another roller coaster month like June.

I agree. As for the above post saying a torch month for the entire country, I see zero support for that. 

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The last time no 90s were recorded in the entire month of July was in 2014. Have a feeling we'll be watching for that.

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The last time no 90s were recorded in the entire month of July was in 2014. Have a feeling we'll be watching for that.


lol
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43 minutes ago, Spartman said:

The last time no 90s were recorded in the entire month of July was in 2014. Have a feeling we'll be watching for that.

Do you have any reasoning behind this or just shooting at the dark like you always do.

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3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I agree. As for the above post saying a torch month for the entire country, I see zero support for that. 

Lol, whatever helps you sleep at night man. 

My call for a warm June was spot on, unlike your call about February 2017 being cold and wintry a while back. 

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2 hours ago, Spartman said:

The last time no 90s were recorded in the entire month of July was in 2014. Have a feeling we'll be watching for that.

Remember when you said Dayton wouldn't hit 90 this June? 

all you do is wish for cool weather all the time no matter the season, just like Jonger. 

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4 hours ago, CCM said:

Lol, whatever helps you sleep at night man. 

My call for a warm June was spot on, unlike your call about February 2017 being cold and wintry a while back. 

LOL. First off I'm a climate buff not a forecaster. I probably mentioned our decade of unprecedented snowy Febs or whatever a model showed, or a gut instinct or a "probably leaning" but I don't forecast. You just say torch every month. The first few days of June you called for a nonstop inferno til July? LOL i have had the heat on in the car a few mornings this week. I said as a total guess June would probably finish within a degree of normal and it looks like it'll finish just over a degree above normal here. So what is your reasoning for a TORCH July when no model shows this? When I hear month longTORCH I expect at minimum a top 20 warmest month, more likely top 10.

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There have definitely been hints of an eastward ridge extension, but it's been getting delayed/muted.  Could get a bona fide hot spell if it finally materializes at some point.  

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9 hours ago, Hoosier said:

There have definitely been hints of an eastward ridge extension, but it's been getting delayed/muted.  Could get a bona fide hot spell if it finally materializes at some point.  

With the most recent in 2014, there have been only 8 Julys since Dayton's records began in 1893 where no 90s were recorded the entire month. At this time, TWC only hints at days ranging at the low to mid-80s. No 90-degree days nor even any days in the upper 80s being forecasted for the first half of this July.

As I mentioned somewhere in the June 2017 thread earlier last month, I can blame the multiple eruptions of Mount Bogoslof in Alaska (still occurring as of this past Thursday) that have started last December for this. I've recently discovered a post from Agweb (https://www.agweb.com/usfr/blog/the-weather-whisperer/blame-hot-volcanoes-for-the-cold-wet-early-winter/?BloggerId=268) that was published in January that the initial eruptions were expected to make this past Winter to have colder-than-normal with above-average precipitation. However since this Spring and ongoing to this very July, we're one of the regions that may be experiencing the delayed effects from the multiple eruptions of Bogoslof. 

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I'd need to see more evidence about this volcano having an influence.  Besides, it's typically the volcanic eruptions in tropical latitudes that can have an impact on weather (I believe due to differences in the circulation in the stratosphere, but don't quote me).

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Huge, Pinatubo-size eruptions can certainly have an impact on global weather.  However, Bogoslof is a mouse fart.  It has erupted many times since December, but they are just brief puffs, a tiny fraction of what Pinatubo did.

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Getting a fairly nice shelf cloud from the garden variety t'storms approaching...

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Looking through the long term... more of the same. Zonal flow - low pressure - cold front - upper level low for a few days - Wash, rinse, repeat. 

I didn't see one day through most of July where the western ridge finally makes its way east. We've been 2017'd. 



When will summer arrive?

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

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Up in Michigan for the weekend. Crazy how the humidity essentially was shut off at the border, felt like someone left the shower on in Ohio as muggy as it was

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On 7/1/2017 at 3:49 AM, Spartman said:

With the most recent in 2014, there have been only 8 Julys since Dayton's records began in 1893 where no 90s were recorded the entire month. At this time, TWC only hints at days ranging at the low to mid-80s. No 90-degree days nor even any days in the upper 80s being forecasted for the first half of this July.

As I mentioned somewhere in the June 2017 thread earlier last month, I can blame the multiple eruptions of Mount Bogoslof in Alaska (still occurring as of this past Thursday) that have started last December for this. I've recently discovered a post from Agweb (https://www.agweb.com/usfr/blog/the-weather-whisperer/blame-hot-volcanoes-for-the-cold-wet-early-winter/?BloggerId=268) that was published in January that the initial eruptions were expected to make this past Winter to have colder-than-normal with above-average precipitation. However since this Spring and ongoing to this very July, we're one of the regions that may be experiencing the delayed effects from the multiple eruptions of Bogoslof. 

Id like to see some actual proof about that volcano. As others have mentioned it's not a very significant volcano and most if not all of its eruptions failed to make it into the stratosphere. Not only that, but the big climate altering eruptions usually happen in the tropics where the ash and other aerosols can be transported across the globe (which was actually how the QBO was first discovered).

 

Also still not sure why 90 is so important to you. 88 feels just about the same as 90, it's just a number! 

 

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6 hours ago, nwohweather said:

Up in Michigan for the weekend. Crazy how the humidity essentially was shut off at the border, felt like someone left the shower on in Ohio as muggy as it was

Capture.thumb.PNG.b5c07c785215ef5efaa5434db07c8367.PNG

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