ThisIsNotSparta

Niño is fading? What? The signal for an event becomes stronger each day, plus the very cold MDR will act to suppress the season. If both manage to not affect the season, the EPAC will hurt it anyway Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

You can see the anomalously westerly winds popping up along with warmer SSTs, though. The spring barrier has passed, and it looks like El Nino will be in place in the winter.

Still looking uncertain, but I'd say a normal season is the best bet right now. It's whether the MDR can warm up and if so, how much, and when El Niño sets in.