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Summer Banter & General Discussion/Observations


CapturedNature

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I looked at cold Augusts and cold Septembers and also both together averaged...I found basically no correlation with the temps and what happened the following winter. So no reason to be scared of an early autumn.

Anecdotally, I remember 1992 had basically no summer and then a frigid autumn...that winter worked out ok. That was the only September that recorded snow in ORH on record. Jerry mentioned 1976...that was another cold late summer and very frigid autumn...the pattern continued right into winter.

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14 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Kevin will worry no matter what.  That's why he runs so much-he's able to diffuse the worry that way.

I almost get the feeling he hopes it switches warm just so he can blame anyone who thought this was a pleasant summer, like they had something to do with it.

But he still loves snow too much to root for that just to make a point lol.

 

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21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I looked at cold Augusts and cold Septembers and also both together averaged...I found basically no correlation with the temps and what happened the following winter. So no reason to be scared of an early autumn.

Anecdotally, I remember 1992 had basically no summer and then a frigid autumn...that winter worked out ok. That was the only September that recorded snow in ORH on record. Jerry mentioned 1976...that was another cold late summer and very frigid autumn...the pattern continued right into winter.

Yeah and on the flip side there are plenty of hotter than normal summers that continued warm through winter (relative to normal).

If we were torching right now the fear would be it continues into winter.  No matter what's happening, some will find something to worry about.

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I almost get the feeling he hopes it switches warm just so he can blame anyone who thought this was a pleasant summer, like they had something to do with it.

But he still loves snow too much to root for that just to make a point lol.

 

There's not one snow lover here that isn't somewhat concerned to worried that the persistent Midwest trough which has kept us normal this summer is going to completely flip . One eyed pig and SE ridge replacing it. You can sense the anxiety in all the winter lovers posts . Some just express it differently . Like you in your previous 2 posts.

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29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There's not one snow lover here that isn't somewhat concerned to worried that the persistent Midwest trough which has kept us normal this summer is going to completely flip . One eyed pig and SE ridge replacing it. You can sense the anxiety in all the winter lovers posts . Some just express it differently . Like you in your previous 2 posts.

This is probably accurate....but not for the reasons you state. I'm always worried about a crappy winter...but I don't become more worried when August has a chilly pattern. I'd also be worried if it was hot right now.

 

I would probably only feel very little worry if we had a weak El Nino...we seem to always do well in those.

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39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There's not one snow lover here that isn't somewhat concerned to worried that the persistent Midwest trough which has kept us normal this summer is going to completely flip . One eyed pig and SE ridge replacing it. You can sense the anxiety in all the winter lovers posts . Some just express it differently . Like you in your previous 2 posts.

Lol about reading into worry in posts.  I think everyone obviously doesn't want a disappointing winter, it's why we are here.  But there's some excess worry.

Given how hard it is to disrupt persistent patterns, we should probably like the northeastern trough that's led to this below normal summer.  

I'd like that better than if we had a big SE ridge to Montreal all summer that shows no sign of stopping.  Persistent patterns are hard to shake, like why even you gave up on the chance for a WAR or SE Ridge by early August after trying to bring one in all July.  The trough over us just wasn't going away and still looks like it's not going anywhere.

If we were baking right now, there'd also be concern it continues into the winter.  Go with persistence right now and things look decent.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Lol about reading into worry in posts.

Given how hard it is to disrupt persistent patterns, we should probably like the northeastern trough that's led to this below normal summer.  

I'd like that better than if we had a big SE ridge to Montreal all summer that shows no sign of stopping.  Persistent patterns are hard to shake, like why even you gave up on the chance for a WAR or SE Ridge by early August after trying to bring one in all July.  The trough over us just wasn't going away and still looks like it's not going anywhere.

If we were baking right now, there'd also be concern it continues into the winter.  Go with persistence right now and things look decent.

Its cool now so we will roast this winter, If it was warm now, We are still going to roast this winter..................lol

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Happy August at Estcourt Station. Monthly mins...

8/01 38.7
8/02 41.5
8/03 53.4
8/04 54.0
8/05 58.6
8/06 52.7
8/07 37.8
8/08 35.6
8/09 35.2
8/10 36.9
8/11 42.1
8/12 55.4
8/13 44.4
8/14 37.9
8/15 46.8
8/16 43.3
8/17 38.1
8/18 41.4
8/19 57.4
8/20 54.7
8/21 54.0
8/22 50.9
8/23 54.5
8/24 46.0
8/25 38.5
8/26 35.2
8/27 32.0
8/28 32.0
8/29 34.0

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24 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I won't worry about anything. It's just weather.

Sneaky reverse psychology as usual from dendrite....

 

He'll be throwing rocks at his chickens in a fit of rage if a storm shows up in December that looks like it will have him choking on CSI/fronto exhaust.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Sneaky reverse psychology as usual from dendrite....

 

He'll be throwing rocks at his chickens in a fit of rage if a storm shows up in December that looks like it will have him choking on CSI/fronto exhaust.

Let's clarify. I don't worry about seasonal forecasts. I do worry about individual events when we're 48hrs out.

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