SnowLover22 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Um.... 899mb Edit: ignore the notification on top lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Heading into NC at 252 but it may have started a turn towards the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Destroyed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Looks like a more inland version of Floyd. That would be very damaging wow. Bob will want it running to our west though...so not good enough unless you're chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 if that ridge off the EC is the real deal then EC hit is a lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 GFS is so lol. takes the coming trough down so deep it grabs a gulf low and makes a closed low in the MS valley. That lets a ATL ridge pop back up and forces Irma NW to N instead of N to NE. And thats exactly what the Euro had last night too. Just different location of Irma. GFS is more NE with where it is while the euro says Shredderola/Cuba into probably either the tip of Fla or eastern gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 So, I guess everyone is ignoring the Euro? Quite the difference in output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Congrats Havanna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 9 minutes ago, mappy said: So, I guess everyone is ignoring the Euro? Quite the difference in output. The Euro nailed Sandy... LOLz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 24 minutes ago, mappy said: So, I guess everyone is ignoring the Euro? Quite the difference in output. It's just as likely to be right as the gfs/cmc camp, if not more. I've not seen the UK yet - what does that show? At this point I think I'd be a shred more concerned in Miami than OBX, but a long way to go on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 26 minutes ago, mappy said: So, I guess everyone is ignoring the Euro? Quite the difference in output. GFS and CMC have the storm off the east coast while the Euro has it going into the gulf. The ensembles of all the models are mixed with gulf and east coast hits. This is a week out so this isn't a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 We've seen plenty of times when a storm is forecast to come towards the east coast and then just barrels into the Gulf. One reason I think this is less likely is it will already be a strong storm - generally I feel like the weaker ones are more likely to do the Gulf plow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 expert analysis from people in NY makes me lol we got this, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 The GFS appears to be switching to a landfall scenario long term. Euro has been with the landfall scenario instead of out to sea, but I think this is the first GFS run to show one for sure (I know a run earlier took it into Nova Scotia). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 hour ago, H2O said: GFS is so lol. takes the coming trough down so deep it grabs a gulf low and makes a closed low in the MS valley. That lets a ATL ridge pop back up and forces Irma NW to N instead of N to NE. And thats exactly what the Euro had last night too. Just different location of Irma. GFS is more NE with where it is while the euro says Shredderola/Cuba into probably either the tip of Fla or eastern gulf Still not sure if I am buying the trough digging all the way to the Gulf. Know the models have been showing it on and off but it is awful early (not even into the Fall season) to be seeing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 28 minutes ago, Snow88 said: GFS and CMC have the storm off the east coast while the Euro has it going into the gulf. The ensembles of all the models are mixed with gulf and east coast hits. This is a week out so this isn't a surprise. WHAT?! hold on hold on... you mean to tell me, a 10 day output ISN'T SET IN STONE. NO. WAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 I don't normally post here but what do you all think of this article. Thanks http://www.weatheroptics.net/steve-dimartino/the-potential-consequences-of-a-hurricane-irma#comments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: I don't normally post here but what do you all think of this article. Thanks http://www.weatheroptics.net/steve-dimartino/the-potential-consequences-of-a-hurricane-irma#comments I mean, it's one of several possibilities ranging from fish storm to Carribean storm at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Gefs and eps look very different in the Atlantic at h5 in d8-10 range. 6z gefs very much supports a recurve but the gefs has been wobbling all over while the eps is pretty steady. Not just with the storm. With everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 So if I live anywhere between Jamaica and eastern Maine, I should pay attention to Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Isn't there a technical name for the box in the Caribbean for when tropical cyclones pass though? I'm having no luck with search engines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Herbert Box. Irma's cone of uncertainty is heading right that way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 I'm curious I saw this on a different weather forum what does it mean AL, 11, 2017083112, , BEST, 0, 167N, 334W, 75, 987, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 50, 40, 60, 1012, 180, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRMA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, AL, 11, 2017083112, , BEST, 0, 167N, 334W, 75, 987, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 1012, 180, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRMA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, AL, 11, 2017083112, , BEST, 0, 167N, 334W, 75, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 10, 10, 10, 1012, 180, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRMA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Herbet Box? Is that what Schroedinger put his cat in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 NHC consensus track is noticeably south of the last few runs of the GFS/GEFS. Comparing the EC and GFS ops @ hr120, you can see a fairly significant difference in the strength of the closed ridge in the central Atl. Ens are the same but the ops are easier to visually see why the models are diverging so much down the line. GFS: \ Euro: d5 is really all that far out there in time either. It's always hard to bet against the euro/eps 500mb panels in the med range. Verification scores show that pretty clearly. My guess (and an easy one.lol) is that the GFS is going to consistently shift south with the med range track over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 58 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: So if I live anywhere between Jamaica and eastern Maine, I should pay attention to Irma. Pretty much. I may need Snow88 to confirm for me though. 52 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Isn't there a technical name for the box in the Caribbean for when tropical cyclones pass though? I'm having no luck with search engines. Herbert Box! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 What about the system in the gulf that was supposed to develop over the weekend? Has that disappeared? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, osfan24 said: What about the system in the gulf that was supposed to develop over the weekend? Has that disappeared? GFS strengthens it by Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 It will be interesting to see if the two storms have any impact on each other. The gulf system should hit the US first, but Irma won't be far behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 16 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It will be interesting to see if the two storms have any impact on each other. The gulf system should hit the US first, but Irma won't be far behind. They could both enter the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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