Bob Chill Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Thru day 9 on wxbell Eps supports the op. Don't have wxbell in the summer but yea man, eps d10 mslp panel is right in the pocket. Looks like a big cluster of ens members agree on placement in the Bahamas. Maybe a south bias if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, WXEnthusiast said: Well then... 12z EURO CONTROL RUN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 For obvious latitude reasons, hurricanes that go through Puerto Rico have had a high rate of being major US impacts: 1899 Cape Hatteras, 1928 Lake Okeechobee, Hugo, Georges, Jeanne (almost hurricane in PR), Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 It's interesting how Irma and the system and the golf seem to have a correlation in terms of latitude on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 18Z GFS throws out a 897MB Cane at hour 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 It's "yuge" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Smacks eastern Maine after giving Boston a once over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 After Harvey, you can never be sure and have to constantly look over your shoulder. Verbatim it is nuts. Sandy would be a breeze in comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 18z gefs definitely puts SNE on alert...lol GEFS seems to favor the northern track like the op compared to the EC. These panels are interesting. Good cluster but further north than the EC: But then two camps diverge with a northern and southern cluster: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Just saw pics of Beaumont and Port Arthur and both those towns are completely submerged. .it's mind boggling. Houston gets all the attention, but other towns got it worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 50 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: It's "yuge" Ginormous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 32 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Another site to get the Gefs 22 members 6hr precip/ pressure plots for the northeast. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/ 12z hr 288 below.. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/F288.html Thanks for the link Some of those ensembles would be a real problem... 2 are going up the Bay -- p16 and p12... p08 and p09 are acceptable i guess (eventually) p07 is okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 26 minutes ago, yoda said: Thanks for the link Some of those ensembles would be a real problem... 2 are going up the Bay -- p16 and p12... p08 and p09 are acceptable i guess (eventually) p07 is okay Yoda! I guess you missed the multitude of posts for more than a day in that main Harvey thread discussing that exact same I-10 photo It's quite a dead horse now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just now, gymengineer said: Yoda! I guess you missed the multitude of posts for more than a day in that main Harvey thread discussing that exact same I-10 photo It's quite a dead horse now. Damn it.... i will delete my post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Damn it.... i will delete my post It's fine. People have been trying to verify whether it's real, and since that thread moves fast, the semi-resolution with video evidence had to be revisited again today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 I can't deny it, Irma is looking pretty beefy at this early hour. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_meteosat.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_met_14km_visir2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Tropical Storm Irma Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2017 Irma continues to become better organized, with the development of a small CDO feature and increased banding near the center. An earlier high-resolution Windsat microwave overpass showed that Irma has a tight inner core and a low-level eye-like feature was present. A Dvorak classification of T3.5 from TAFB is the basis for the initial intensity of 55 kt. Irma is expected to steadily strengthen during the next couple of days while it moves through a low-shear and moist environment, and remains over warm sea surface temperatures. After that time, slightly cooler SSTs and lower mid-level moisture may temper the intensification process. However, the statistical aids, HWRF, and most of the consensus models make Irma a major hurricane by the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is fairly similar to the previous advisory through 48 hours, but is above the earlier forecast thereafter. The new official intensity forecast could still be a little conservative as it remains a little below the SHIPS/LGEM guidance and the ICON consensus at days 4 and 5. Irma is moving westward at about 10 kt to the south of deep-layer ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The track forecast reasoning is about the same as the previous advisory, with Irma expected to turn west-northwestward on Thursday, then continue on that heading for a couple of days. The high pressure ridge over the central Atlantic is forecast to strengthen later this week, which is expected to result in Irma turning west-southwestward by the weekend. There is still some spread among the track models, so the NHC forecast lies near a blend of the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF, and the HFIP corrected consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 16.4N 32.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 16.8N 33.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 17.3N 35.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 17.7N 37.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 18.0N 39.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 17.6N 44.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 16.8N 49.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 16.2N 53.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 It's fine. People have been trying to verify whether it's real, and since that thread moves fast, the semi-resolution with video evidence had to be revisited again today. (Sorry, is this the "I-10" photo? I'm one of the reasons it was revisited this afternoon, but now that Yoda deleted the post I don't know what was said this latest time around. Still considered legit? I only ask because of the odd phrase "semi-resolution video" and I can't infer from your post.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 (Sorry, is this the "I-10" photo? I'm one of the reasons it was revisited this afternoon, but now that Yoda deleted the post I don't know what was said this latest time around. Still considered legit? I only ask because of the odd phrase "semi-resolution video" and I can't infer from your post.)Here's the Post article confirming it:https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/dr-gridlock/wp/2017/08/30/harvey-turned-part-of-interstate-10-into-a-roaring-river-with-actual-waves/(I'm the one who started the brouhaha in the first place in the other thread, so this is my penance) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 0z gfs looks more like the 12z euro with the closed ridge in the Atlantic through 144. Trend the last 3 runs has inched the track southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 0z gfs looks more like the 12z euro with the closed ridge in the Atlantic through 144. Trend the last 3 runs has inched the track southward. It starts moving NW though at 144 to 162... def looks like a recurve incoming at 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: It starts moving NW though at 144 to 162... def looks like a recurve incoming at 180 Yea, gfs and euro diverge quite a bit in the midrange with the track. All the ops are locked in on a very strong storm. Impressive stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 910mb at 198 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 This setup is pure insanity. Predacessor Rainfall Event approaching the coast. Definitely needs to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: This setup is pure insanity. Predacessor Rainfall Event approaching the coast. H5 is really close to one of the most epic runs for the Mid Atlantic, but it's trending towards something beyond epic for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: H5 is really close to one of the most epic runs for the Mid Atlantic, but it's trending towards something beyond epic for New England. Yeah it slams into ME at 252 How close was it at h5 to being an epic run for the MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Yeah it slams into ME at 252 That was one of the more insane runs at 500mb that I've seen in a while. It was a perfect capture and sling shot into New England. Winds at surface running over 90 knots into ME shores. Boston gets shredded too. Crazy run and major differences on the timing of the trough over the CONUS compared to the rest of today's runs. This system should have everyone's attention from FL to ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.