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NJwx85

April 2017 Observations and Discussions

676 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, Morris said:

2-3+ inches for the metro through 8 days

I wouldn't call that theee big rain storms. But definitely wet and above average precip wise

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7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I wouldn't call that theee big rain storms. But definitely wet and above average precip wise

He wasn't including the day 10 storm. We have three major systems coming, one Friday, one early next week and then one late next week.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_eus_11.png

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Regardless of the particulars... let's just say an active pattern at the very least.  Looks like moderate temperatures too.

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i can't remember the last time we saw so many 2" rain events in such a short amount of time. even oct 2005 and aug 2011 had longer breaks than this

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The reservoir near my house ( Shawangunk Lake) is literally bursting at the seams right now. Complete reversal from this time 6 months ago. 

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My fear is it will be cold and wet until June like a few years back, i don't remember the exact year but it was cold and rain on Memorial day.

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5 minutes ago, marsplex said:

My fear is it will be cold and wet until June like a few years back, i don't remember the exact year but it was cold and rain on Memorial day.

2009...The year that I don't want to relive.

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7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like we have a shot at the wettest 3/31-4/7 on record around the area.That Nino 1+2 spike and fading La Nina are producing more of a wet spring El Nino pattern here.

 

#1 1987 4.83

#2 1984 4.37

#3 1973 3.55

#4 1982  3.45

# 5 1886 3.32

 

ELNINO.thumb.gif.3619ad9f3bb3fa88f9522d3a9c27eadf.gif

Question is, with the type of storminess that we've seen in late winter seasons and early springs just prior to big el ninos, does this give us a hint of a big el nino coming for next winter?

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8 hours ago, Paragon said:

Question is, with the type of storminess that we've seen in late winter seasons and early springs just prior to big el ninos, does this give us a hint of a big el nino coming for next winter?

While it's too early to guess about the winter, the ensembles continue this more Nino-like stormy pattern. 

 

NINO.gif.6c36c79201732073200cc9ff93a5863a.gif

eps_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.18fd006d09c9bc00ce8da1a65522ce1d.png

 

 

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12 hours ago, marsplex said:

My fear is it will be cold and wet until June like a few years back, i don't remember the exact year but it was cold and rain on Memorial day.

The Friday of Memorial Day weekend in 2013 was pretty awful.  I think the high was about 45 degrees and there was a steady rain all day.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

While it's too early to guess about the winter, the ensembles continue this more Nino-like stormy pattern. 

 

NINO.gif.6c36c79201732073200cc9ff93a5863a.gif

eps_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.18fd006d09c9bc00ce8da1a65522ce1d.png

 

 

I hope this is the start of the stormier pattern that I was hoping for last fall. Unfortunately a day late and a dollar short for this past winter but hopefully a stormier pattern is on tap for the spring/summer which will lead us into and through the upcoming fall and winter months.

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13 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I hope this is the start of the stormier pattern that I was hoping for last fall. Unfortunately a day late and a dollar short for this past winter but hopefully a stormier pattern is on tap for the spring/summer which will lead us into and through the upcoming fall and winter months.

Spring is getting off to a wet start with many local stations finishing March with over 5.00" of precip.

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Spring is getting off to a wet start with many local stations finishing March with over 5.00" of precip.

With 2 more heavy rain makers expected for the upcoming week flooding issues a certainly going to start to arise. I had 2.05" of rain yesterday with 3.15" since Monday.

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7 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

With 2 more heavy rain makers expected for the upcoming week flooding issues a certainly going to start to arise. I had 2.05" of rain yesterday with 3.15" since Monday.

7th wettest March on record for JFK with 5.79"

2010  8.62 0
2 1980 8.17 0
3 2001 7.00 0
4 1993 6.83 0
5 1983 6.66 0
6 1984 5.99 0
7 2017 5.79 0
                           
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Despite a total fail for the LR Analogs in March, they continue to show the rest of the year AN, almost everywhere in the 48.   EURO weeklies at least for April look a little AN for the first 20 days of the month, then show a wicked 10 day cold spell, so who knows how April will turn out.

The 2 year run of AN months is history, and the analogs look to start another one, but they better watch the quiet sun and a warming stratosphere that could result in a BN  troposphere over a good part of the earth.

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1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Despite a total fail for the LR Analogs in March, they continue to show the rest of the year AN, almost everywhere in the 48.   EURO weeklies at least for April look a little AN for the first 20 days of the month, then show a wicked 10 day cold spell, so who knows how April will turn out.

The 2 year run of AN months is history, and the analogs look to start another one, but they better watch the quiet sun and a warming stratosphere that could result in a BN  troposphere over a good part of the earth.

Rest of the year above normal?..and they couldn't get the next month right.....

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