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pasnownut

Central Pa - March Monster 2017

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2 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Hi Bubbler!!  Nice to hear from you.  Saw your posts yesterday.  It's looking great up here, again.  Who would have thought after the warmest February on record that we would end up with this big storm?  That's what keeps us weenies going is the fascination with the extremes in weather and how quickly they can come together.

>>Still down in FL??  If so, where?  Can't remember.

I am indeed down in Florida still.  Near Ocala but considering moving to Sarasota.  Living vicariously though you guys :-).  I was just up there a couple weeks ago, flew into Hagerstown, and worse shorts both leaving Florida and arriving in the area.  Temps were crazy warm.  An upside down winter that is for sure.  I was/am hoping for 20" for Cumberland county but not sure about it with the way the radar cleared out over the last couple hours. 

 

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3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

I am indeed down in Florida still.  Near Ocala but considering moving to Sarasota.  Living vicariously though you guys :-).  I was just up there a couple weeks ago, flew into Hagerstown, and worse shorts both leaving Florida and arriving in the area.  Temps were crazy warm.  An upside down winter that is for sure.  I was/am hoping for 20" for Cumberland county but not sure about it with the way the radar cleared out over the last couple hours. 

 

With the banding anything is yet possible...even another 5", but I'd say odds are less than 50/50 at this point.  Snow is beginning to pick back up a little again, but the sky is getting a lot brighter also, so not sure there will be any additional accumulations unless some bands arrive.  Glad you are enjoying the storm from down there.  Yes, we had 3 days in the upper 70's about 3 weeks ago here.  Crazy warm February.

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7 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

With the banding anything is yet possible...even another 5", but I'd say odds are less than 50/50 at this point.  Snow is beginning to pick back up a little again, but the sky is getting a lot brighter also, so not sure there will be any additional accumulations unless some bands arrive.  Glad you are enjoying the storm from down there.  Yes, we had 3 days in the upper 70's about 3 weeks ago here.  Crazy warm February.

RE: Warm February, yea who would have thought PA would be getting significant Lake Effect (Fake) snow in mid March since the lakes are not frozen.

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I think part 2 of the storm is revving up to our west as multiple bands are beginning to form.  Closest one is now in western Cumberland county.  Just need to see if it progresses eastward over me towards MDT in the next hour.  Wundermap is good at showing those bands.  That's the radar I am using at the moment, along with NWS.

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5 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Your map verified out this way.  I had 12.2" at 10:30.   Lots of blowing snow 

Yupp! Verified in 95% of our DMA. Compared to what it could have been, (and may end up verifying the low end areas that saw sleet all day with this last band) I'll call that a success!

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I think the NAM should get some credit for its unwavering insistence of a far western track from when it first appeared to show that solution in HR 84 through today. It had its crazy qpf issues with quantity and placement, but it never wavered from a far western track.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

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Just now, Jns2183 said:

I think the NAM should get some credit for its unwavering insistence of a far western track from when it first appeared to show that solution in HR 84 through today. It had its crazy qpf issues with quantity and placement, but it never wavered from a far western track.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Thank you! That model is ridiculed beyond belief,  but that is the 2nd biggie in a row that it did very well with. (relatively speaking)

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2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I think the NAM should get some credit for its unwavering insistence of a far western track from when it first appeared to show that solution in HR 84 through today. It had its crazy qpf issues with quantity and placement, but it never wavered from a far western track.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Agreed. It's prob time it gets credit for tracking. You can ignore precip or whatever but it's tended to handle tracks pretty well with these coastal systems.

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I cleared part of my driveway only to get to the road and find it wasn't been touched in hours. We are getting slammed again with a heavy burst. local tv met says 2-4 inches an hour until 3:00. 

 

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Absolutely dumping snow right now.

BGM Update

1030 AM update...Blockbuster winter storm event in progress for
central NY and northeast PA. Storm reports thus far were ranging
from 12 to 20 inches across the Southern Tier, Catskills and
NEPA with lesser amounts west and north. Snowfall rates under
the most intense mesoscale bands were 3 inches per hour...at
least.

Entire storm system was rapidly deepening and moving north along
the East coast with a 988 mb surface low off the Delmarva at
14Z. CNY/NEPA was smack in the middle of strong 500-700 mb
frontogenetical forcing beneath coupled jet streams. This is
near dynamic perfection as far as epic snowstorms go. High
resolution models keep us within this environment well into the
afternoon as 700 mb low lifts into the Hudson Valley.

Have been making adjustments to future snowfall totals as best
as possible with the trickling in of 12Z guidance and older 06Z
guidance. Some of the results are scary with the potential for
widespread 30+ inch totals from Binghamton south and eastward
into the Catskills and NEPA.

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Forgot to report in at 11:00...lol...

Picked up an additional 0.3" during the past hour giving me a storm total of 15.2".  It continues to snow lightly to occasionally moderately, but with a temp of 31.1 now it isn't accumulating further.  Waiting on the bands.

Glad to see/hear the north country is really cashing in this time around.  I hope you're happy, wmpstwx!

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the forecasting has gotten worse, BGM is afraid to up the totals because of sleet mixing in, but it appears that we could get another 10 inches or so in the next 4 hours. That would put us close to 30 inches. I had measurements of  19,18.5 and 18 while outside. (taking a break and going back out in an hour or so). the wind has picked up.

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20 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

I think part 2 of the storm is revving up to our west as multiple bands are beginning to form.  Closest one is now in western Cumberland county.  Just need to see if it progresses eastward over me towards MDT in the next hour.  Wundermap is good at showing those bands.  That's the radar I am using at the moment, along with NWS.

The radar is filling in nicely to our west.

MDT at 11am still had steady snow with .5 mile visibility.

Steady snow continues in Marysville at a decent rate as well.

I wonder what, if any impact the radar returns out in Missouri area that are rotating south east will have on our storm ?

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Still snowing here, have not measured. Just got back from a chimney fire, house up on the side of the  mountain, about a 1/3 of a mile walk up hill in 15" of snow! Winds picking up now! 

Bubbler good to see you posting

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It will be interesting with a saturated 700 mb level to watch these heights fall as the 500 mb low rolls across later this afternoon/evening...I personally believe there will be numerous productive snow showers/squalls until sunset and beyond...

 

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2 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said:

Anyone know what the all time snow record for AVP is and what year? Originally from Pittston, just amazing by the snow totals in NEPA today.

I thought the Blizzard of 96 gave them 21 or 22 inches in a day unless that has been broken since then?

 

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