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The Blizzard of the Ides, 2017 ...observation time


Typhoon Tip

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13 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some areas between ALB and BGM forecast areas got 35-40". That's probably the highest totals for synoptic snows. The northern greens will get the most overall if you include the upslope after the storm...but I usually consider that cheating for an actual storm total.  It's almost two events. It's like when SYR reported 43" for the Superstorm when a bunch of that was LES on the backside. I always heard that total referenced and they made it sound like it was the actual storm total from the coastal itself and not backside enhancement from lake. I remember when I actually found out like 20"+ was from lake effect, I felt misled, lol. It was deflating because I had always envisioned them under this synoptic death band that drops 40"+ and then found out that wasn't true. 

I'm so pissed....I had that band JUST too far east.

Blizzard of 2017_ FINAL CALL.png

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15 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I had to take a sledge hammer to my parents' driveway to break up the crust. Hardest shoveling I can remember. 

I agree. My snowblower hated it, i literally had to take garden shovel/hoe and break up the top layer, and the bottom of my driveway where the plow pushed all the hard crusty snow up against it...forget about it. Took me almost 3 hours to clear my driveway, which normally would have taken 30 minutes.

 

One thing good about this storm is this snowpack has some serious staying power. You can literally walk on top of the snow without falling through (at least i can). I remember last year we got a storm on Mar 21st overnight and it evaporated into thin air by noon, almost 5 inches. But this 9-10" of concrete is staying like its early January. Unbelievable. 

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Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

I agree. My snowblower hated it, i literally had to take garden shovel/hoe and break up the top layer, and the bottom of my driveway where the plow pushed all the hard crusty snow up against it...forget about it. Took me almost 3 hours to clear my driveway, which normally would have taken 30 minutes.

 

One thing good about this storm is this snowpack has some serious staying power. You can literally walk on top of the snow without falling through (at least i can). I remember last year we got a storm on Mar 21st overnight and it evaporated into thin air by noon, almost 5 inches. But this 9-10" of concrete is staying like its early January. Unbelievable. 

Sounds like you waited to long.  I was on that snow at about 2:30 Tuesday knowing that I would not get much more, and the light rain was falling.  2 hours before it was pure fluff, when I started it was already heavy, and by the time I was finished it was much heavier.  

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2 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Sounds like you waited to long.  I was on that snow at about 2:30 Tuesday knowing that I would not get much more, and the light rain was falling.  2 hours before it was pure fluff, when I started it was already heavy, and by the time I was finished it was much heavier.  

 

I did, but it was on purpose. The town didn't plow my street at all during the storm. So instead of doing my driving with the blower and then having to go out again the following morning and do the end of it all over again, i decided to wait. Didn't think it was going to be THAT bad. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Sorry boys, snowpack at this stage is pointless. I like the chase and then the snow but pushing towards the spring equinox, the last thing I want is crusty ice hanging on for dear life ruining fairways and greens. Keep the pack up north for late season skiing, give me golf down here....best of both worlds. 

Mid April will be here soon enough. Until then keep em in the shed 

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9 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said:

Pretty sure a snownado went cruising down route 109.  Reading some comments, they apparently need to replace nearly every pole for several miles.

Found these posted by the NH DOT:

C6-jYEIXAAI_cot.jpg

C6-jUvoWsAIA1dE.jpg

C6-jR-wXAAEgGyQ.jpg

Holy crap! That looks like what we had in Feb 2013.

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3 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Man you guys got some weak trees in New England. A few 50mph gusts and whole forests are blown down. Wow.

I take it you don't have white pine there?  It's sometimes hard to believe they ever live long enough to reach the enormous sizes that they get to.

I bet NH could probably eliminate like 95% of their winter time outages by culling the white pine population entirely.

But they make epic roaring in the winter, and pleasant swooshing in the summer, so I love them.

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46 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Sounds like you waited to long.  I was on that snow at about 2:30 Tuesday knowing that I would not get much more, and the light rain was falling.  2 hours before it was pure fluff, when I started it was already heavy, and by the time I was finished it was much heavier.  

I went out about the same time and was able to slice right through it.  I had some more clearing yesterday and I was glad I did what I did when I did.

42 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

 

I did, but it was on purpose. The town didn't plow my street at all during the storm. So instead of doing my driving with the blower and then having to go out again the following morning and do the end of it all over again, i decided to wait. Didn't think it was going to be THAT bad. 

The key to avoid having a giant mountain at the end of the driveway twice is to clear the area in front of your driveway and then to the left of it.  That way when the plow comes, it leaves all the snow it would normally leave in your driveway there.  I've been doing that for years and never have more than a few inches across my drive way.  I did that Tuesday and was able to just drive out in the morning and clear the little bit that was left when I came home.

drivewayclearing2.gif

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  As far as this storm goes, I think a tip of the cap to the mesos is in order. They did pretty well. This may have been a storm that played into their bias of tucking in low pressure close to the coast. Many times it's tough to buy the non hydrostatic models, but when we start seeing global shifts to the west..perhaps we take them more seriously. Between the nature of these srn events, complicated s/w interactions, and baroclinic processes with intense thermal gradients...this may have been their storm. We have seen it before when they go too far west like many of the 2011 winter events...but I guess you need to incorporate d/DT of model trends here. That may be just as valuable as the actual solutions when conveying the risks to the forecast such as ptype.  I didn't notice a ton of convection, but I have noticed these storms that develop right near cstl NC along the thermal gradients seem to work in their favor.

 

  I also think the old met commandments of 700 lows to our west and forecasting 2' of snow need to be considered. You probably would have made a decent forecast just on that. I did notice on the models that the lift did shift below the DGZ and become intense. This is probably why we had 2" of 7:1 snow. The DGZ lifted up and dried out and the lift become super intense in the 850-700 zone. I was sort of in and out of following this event, but that's just a few things I noticed.

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