March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

They state they went with a NAM/GFS blend with a nod to the 00z EURO (which showed like 1.4-1.8" QPF up here when all was done)....it just seems awfully ambitious to me with 3 days still to go.

It is but nowadays you can just take it down lol.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

They state they went with a NAM/GFS blend with a nod to the 00z EURO (which showed like 1.4-1.8" QPF up here when all was done)....it just seems awfully ambitious to me with 3 days still to go.

I mean in my opinion, you can't give a nod to the 00z Euro without also giving a nod to 12z. Tossing it completely is probably not the best idea at this point.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah I would not be putting most likely 12-18" amounts over central NY. That seems like the lower end of probabilities. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I like the look for the storm next weekend too....

Just drop me off at rehab already, I'll be out of syringes by the wknd. 

[codfishsnowman]

46 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Jumping off the GW nyc weenies they go, one euro run. Never learn, latch onto euro jan 15 ftl now they latch onto the euro to approve their own wrist slitting. 

 

I don't understand after  getting redeemed the next January plus all the other gargantuan events they have had in the past fifteen years

must be like heroin, just leaves one wanting more and more...I have an addictive personality therefore I would love to find out

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

A bit early for those I think. 

I have to tell you, man....looking at H5, I like the 12z EURO better for a lot of SNE than the 00z.

H5 is now bodily south of the region....it was more over us in the previous run-

[shawnmov]

NWS Boston has snow maps up - 12-18" for most of Massachusetts.

[powderfreak]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

I mean in my opinion, you can't give a nod to the 00z Euro without also giving a nod to 12z. Tossing it completely is probably not the best idea at this point.

Maybe its the full -on pessimist in me over coastal storms but no one can deny the theme of these storms since 2011.  

Something wants them east and I think even regardless of models, you hedge everything east anyway because reality usually includes 1) a later capture and phase than modeled and 2) slower development than modeled.  Stuff tends to get further north/east than models think it will.  Its very rare to have these pull like an old school Jan 2001 and tuck much closer to the coast and bomb earlier than expected.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, shawnmov said:

NWS Boston has snow maps up - 12-18" for most of Massachusetts.

Looks a lot like my first call map from late last night..

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

 

I don't understand after  getting redeemed the next January plus all the other gargantuan events they have had in the past fifteen years

must be like heroin, just leaves one wanting more and more...I have an addictive personality therefore I would love to find out

I also forgot that euro was too south inside 24hrs for their jan 16 hecs. So yea, if I were nyc Id say fool me once, fool me twice....not happening again James. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have to tell you, man....looking at H5, I like the 12z EURO better for a lot of SNE than the 00z.

H5 is now bodily south of the region....it was more over us in the previous run-

The op? Yeah it was good for SNE, esp east.  The one thing missing is the Jan 2011 style of closing off and digging for oil south of BID like that event had.

[JC-CT]

Well box isn't going with the east solutions.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, shawnmov said:

NWS Boston has snow maps up - 12-18" for most of Massachusetts.

Poor Jimmy

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

The op? Yeah it was good for SNE, esp east.  The one thing missing is the Jan 2011 style of closing off and digging for oil south of BID like that event had.

Still time of for that theoretically, but these usually trend in the opposite direction in that regard close in.

[CoastalWx]

I would have boosted Cape totals.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Break over, back to work folks. 

[moneypitmike]

10 minutes ago, shawnmov said:

NWS Boston has snow maps up - 12-18" for most of Massachusetts.

 

Man, that really hates the valley--only in Massachusetts though--blanket look at CT.

[codfishsnowman]

down slope death valley

[codfishsnowman]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

 

Man, that really hates the valley--only in Massachusetts though--blanket look at CT.

well maybe they are learning after broad brushing us with about four feet of snow we have not had over the past several years

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I would have boosted Cape totals.

I have 5-10" there.

[OceanStWx]

13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Maybe its the full -on pessimist in me over coastal storms but no one can deny the theme of these storms since 2011.  

Something wants them east and I think even regardless of models, you hedge everything east anyway because reality usually includes 1) a later capture and phase than modeled and 2) slower development than modeled.  Stuff tends to get further north/east than models think it will.  Its very rare to have these pull like an old school Jan 2001 and tuck much closer to the coast and bomb earlier than expected.

Root for convection to come in more robust than forecast tomorrow. Latent heat pump that ridge up ahead of the low and you can get a little wiggle room west.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Root for convection to come in more robust than forecast tomorrow. Latent heat pump that ridge up ahead of the low and you can get a little wiggle room west.

I usually plan on s streamers doing that....especially in March.

Still not worried about a graze.

[Damage In Tolland]

Can't believe they didn't go 12-24. In time.. they'll have to

[40/70 Benchmark]

GFS looks a bit more progressive at hr 36 in the plains.

[CoastalWx]

Well owing to what PF said, there may not be a coincidence that the last few years of coastals have been in more +NAO regimes. And whaddya know...those are usually progressive. You're thinking of those NAO blocks that drive a piece of the PV lobe south from Ontario and phase it with the srn stream to get those huggers.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS looks a bit more progressive at hr 36 in the plains.

I see that too.

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Can't believe they didn't go 12-24. In time.. they'll have to

Yeah no reason to jump the gun. Plenty of time to adjust up if needed.

[Typhoon Tip]

I don't know if you folks are old enough to reminder the wrath of Walter Drag -

hahah.  Just kidding, Walt - ... if ur around.

But, in 1987, in late January, there was a juggernaut of all juggernauts modeled.  The then AVN was hammering a 4th+ period cryospheric horror show ... My guess is at the time, the ensembles and/or other tools of the day were also on-board.  The implications were going to be "...NOT SEEN SINCE THE GREAT BLIZZARD FEBRUARY 1978.."  That was a ticker running by at the base of TWC's on-going broadcasts, together with with other descriptive prose that would mute the Grapes Of Wrath. 

May as well have been an eternity.  

I remember trying to sit still as a teenager turbo weather dork during the Star Trek movie of the day ... save the whales are something.  All I could think about was the storm. Yet, I can't put a finger on it - for some reason I just got a funny feeling when we piled out of the movie, that something wasn't right.  In retrospect, I know what it was.  At that point in my young life one thing that all snow storms had in common was that there was some element about them that was unknown going in, and blew up bigger as an impact than was thought to occur.  I think it was the extended fore-warning of an event that was top tier impact was simply out of place with that experience; and for that, it just seemed like it couldn't be true. If perhaps merely some sort of human -based irrationality.

The night of the big dance, she didn't show up. At least...she was late.  I came out of the gym and walked home under butterscotch glowing sky that was black at the horizons.

I remember that about growing up in western Lower Michigan with lake effect snow over night.  I learned a visual pattern, that if the snow stopped, yet the sky remained glowing all the way to the horizon, that it would snow again.  If the snow stopped, and the horizons edged darker, than it the snow would not return. All that from staring out the picture window of my parent living room as an utterly obsessed weather freak kid, in the wee hours of the mornings.  How's that for weird -

But, walking home that faithful night from basketball, in an eerie calm, 'bout ...9 pm,  with that same darkness at the horizon, and I specifically and particularly recall wondering if the snow was going to return - "reminds me of that."  That, in spite of the boundless hype that was in place for the biggest storm (if not exceeding) since the blizzard of 1978. It just didn't set well considering that during basketball, I had stepped out to cool off for a moment in the chill air, and there was light cold rain in the process of changing to noodles and sleet bombs in the lamp light of the parking lot outside the High School gym. An hour later ... nothing was happening, and the sky edges were not glowing.  I chose to ignore; the alternative was unthinkable. 

So then Harvey Leonard comes on the air... The storm took priority and they led off with coverage by going directly to "...Our chief Meteorologist, Harvey Leonard" ...who at the time had a full head of dark hair - ha!  He immediately wasted know time inserting the dagger into the baby's heart - "..We now think, based on the latest guidance, that the worst of the blizzard will be down toward the Cape, with considerably less as you go NW of the Canal, and much less as you get NW of Boston.."

No way... that's gotta be f bs wrong.  f you man.  I crashed... thinking it had to be a mistake. It had to be. There was too much momentum built up.  But I knew.  Denial was a river in both Egypt and running through my living room that late evening - I knew...

The next morning there was a gossamer 1.5 inches of fracture frigid dust up against tires as they parked, and the sun was dimly visible... And the exactness of the devil's claim was that I had to walk to school in 9 F air mass being hummed along by 40 mph gusts.  Oh, the Cape?  Yup - total whiteout. 

This event really ... this was when I grew up?  I sort of learned really early about the futility of getting banged up mentally/emotionally by this stuff.  I figure, if I'm going to be a Meteorologist, I better develop a fondness for a broader canvas of Natural phenomenon.  I was also lucky in that prior to transplanting from Michigan to SNE, I was first and foremost and utter convection kook. ...

 

[moneypitmike]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Can't believe they didn't go 12-24. In time.. they'll have to

AMOUT

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I see that too.

N stream looks a hair better defined, though..