March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[JC-CT]

Just now, eyewall said:

Yeah to go from double digits to hoping to squeeze out 3-6" is tough lol.

There's always the NAM

[CoastalWx]

Just now, eyewall said:

Yeah to go from double digits to hoping to squeeze out 3-6" is tough lol.

I wouldn't swan dive into the pink granite pits until the GEM and Euro come out. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I wouldn't swan dive into the pink granite pits until the GEM and Euro come out. 

But then it's fair game?

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

Yeah to go from double digits to hoping to squeeze out 3-6" is tough lol.

That GFS run is actually better than the 6z run...

[CoastalWx]

Canadian is over FMH.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I wouldn't swan dive into the pink granite pits until the GEM and Euro come out. 

He just needs to look at the 12z new NAM.

I mean, how hard can it be to get a solution that pleases everyone from BUF to BOS?  CAR to DCA?

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

But then it's fair game?

[CoastalWx]

These model differences are LMAO.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian is over FMH.

Yeah move the GFS 75 miles north and its game on for everyone.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian is over FMH.

Jimmy.......ftl

[powderfreak]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

These model differences are LMAO.

It seems like the GFS is on its own right now...but then watch the EURO come out east of that or something, lol.

[eyewall]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

He just needs to look at the 12z new NAM.

I mean, how hard can it be to get a solution that pleases everyone from BUF to BOS?  CAR to DCA?

 

That would certainly be an ideal outcome. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

It seems like the GFS is on its own right now...but then watch the EURO come out east of that or something, lol.

That would be a bad forecast this far in, and I trust that over the NAM and GGEM. But, as usual I wait until the euro.

[sankaty]

Last night's Euro showed 10" plus for both GON and BTV.  Can anyone remember a past storm that has actually done that?

[BRSno]

When did 12-18" become meh? That'd be 50% almost of what I've gotten all winter. 

[moneypitmike]

Damn--I was hoping for some agreement before heading back to Mass.  Lord know what I'll return to:  EC and 18 NAM will be waiting for me when I get in.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It seems like the GFS is on its own right now...but then watch the EURO come out east of that or something, lol.

It's closer than first blush from the surface low. The GFS is faster, but for the most part mid level lows take a similar path over the Cape now.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

That would certainly be an ideal outcome. 

I guess you didn't see last nights Euro

[40/70 Benchmark]

If the western solutions verify, I'll be pinning on CF CJ...the eastern ones, mid level magicians.

Just pray to not get caught in between.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, sankaty said:

Last night's Euro showed 10" plus for both GON and BTV.  Can anyone remember a past storm that has actually done that?

Feb 2013?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

It's closer than first blush from the surface low. The GFS is faster, but for the most part mid level lows take a similar path over the Cape now.

Thought the GFS was slower?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If the western solutions verify, I'll be pinning on CF CJ...the eastern ones, mid level magicians.

Just pray to not get caught in between.

You are in a great spot with any of the modeled solutions.  

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thought the GFS was slower?

Slower than 06z or 00z versions of the GFS, but still faster than the Euro.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You are in a great spot with any of the modeled solutions.  

On a macro scale, sure....but ask me how much I'll care if the deformation ends up over MPM, and the cf convergence is over Jerry, Jay and Allison.

[ineedsnow]

Canadian is a crusher

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's closer than first blush from the surface low. The GFS is faster, but for the most part mid level lows take a similar path over the Cape now.

I thought the 00z Euro and 12z NAM's looked well NW of the Cape?  More like ORH area.

The 12z EURO will settle it...but now we've got 2 hours of thumb twiddling haha.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

On a macro scale, sure....but ask me how much I'll care if the deformation ends up over MPM, and the cf convergence is over Jerry, Jay and Allison.

LOL. The Canadian guidance was sweet for you. 

[powderfreak]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Canadian is a crusher

Spreads the love.

Goes over the Canal it looked like.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, powderfreak said:

I thought the 00z Euro and 12z NAM's looked well NW of the Cape?  More like ORH area.

The 12z EURO will settle it...but now we've got 2 hours of thumb twiddling haha.

The euro went over ACK.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

I thought the 00z Euro and 12z NAM's looked well NW of the Cape?  More like ORH area.

The 12z EURO will settle it...but now we've got 2 hours of thumb twiddling haha.

Poor uncle