March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[dendrite]

The german is a crush job...Narr Bay to GHG track.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Well, Slower in its feeling the effects of the ULL trying to capture it at the surface tugging it back to the NW slowing its progression.

This is trending towards epicosity for E NY/W NE, but reduced impact out this way.

[powderfreak]

18 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I'm fully expecting a good amount of taint here... the million dollars question is how much... do we still pull 6-10"... or is it like a 2-4" slop fest.

Should know more in about an hour 

Say what?

You get 8-12" from the WAA alone on the front end.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Brett-no matter what happens you're getting nearly a foot from the front end.

I hope you're right.... I'll defer to those who have been around longer and know more of what they are talking about and have seen similar evolutions.

Ultimately... we get what we get... so I will sit back and enjoy 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Either the GEFS ingested something for breakfast that will be coming up shortly or some peeps will be up in arms. There are no members hitting land.

 

[dendrite]

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Effective dry slot anyway. You may keep snowing, but you're not going like it when Dendrite is prancing through the chicken coop in +SN.

Like .25-.5"/hr...useless.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is trending towards epicosity for E NY/W NE, but reduced impact out this way.

The folks out west have nothing to worry about.

[weathafella]

All these models enhance the totals near BOS-cf?

[powderfreak]

Just now, dryslot said:

The folks out west have nothing to worry about.

You obviously have never been in western New England for any period of time for nor'easters lol.

The no worry zone is the same corridor it's been for days now.  TOL to LEW.  Feet up, light em up.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weathafella said:

All these models enhance the totals near BOS-cf?

Yes.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Either the GEFS ingested something for breakfast that will be coming up shortly or some peeps will be up in arms. There are no members hitting land.

 

Yeah, That's really far to the east, Would not have thought as we got closer we would see that swing east.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, weathafella said:

All these models enhance the totals near BOS-cf?

Could be, or that band on the extreme west side of low pressure that these can have when they get near CC.

[SR Airglow]

8 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

I'm trying to see if this storm is worth $500+ to fly home Early from The Netherlands and TAUNTON (not far from me) is talking 2"-10"???  

 

I NEED People to be Confident I'm getting 20" in Northern Rhode Island to spend that money to come home Monday vs. Tuesday.  And need to know soon.  

 

Am I likely getting 20" or Not?  

I'm not sure what $500 is worth to you, but for me, this storm, while nice, is not falling into the all timer category that would cause me to spend that much to experience it.

 

To answer your question, you're not likely getting 20", but anything is possible.

[dryslot]

Just now, powderfreak said:

You obviously have never been in western New England for any period of time for nor'easters lol.

The no worry zone is the same corridor it's been for days now.  TOL to LEW.  Feet up, light em up.

The GFS would worry me, But seems to be on the far side of guidance right now.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Like .25-.5"/hr...useless.

I'd gladly take half inch per hour in any coastal storm ha.

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

So the German's made a NAM.  

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes.

That's a tough forecast.  Some in th area could get 20 while 10 miles away it's 11.

[ROOSTA]

3 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

I'm trying to see if this storm is worth $500+ to fly home Early from The Netherlands and TAUNTON (not far from me) is talking 2"-10"???  

 

I NEED People to be Confident I'm getting 20" in Northern Rhode Island to spend that money to come home Monday vs. Tuesday.  And need to know soon.  

 

Am I likely getting 20" or Not?  

Cursed RI jinx will be in full effect. Friggin sucker hole of subsidence. 
Really it's a crap shoot and probably boil-down to a now-cast. Just imagine a line from Ray to Ginx anywhere S and E guessing will be around a foot. 20" you ask...odds at 30-70 for NOT achieving.
You would set the record for a snow chase.

[Ginx snewx]

13 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

I'm trying to see if this storm is worth $500+ to fly home Early from The Netherlands and TAUNTON (not far from me) is talking 2"-10"???  

 

I NEED People to be Confident I'm getting 20" in Northern Rhode Island to spend that money to come home Monday vs. Tuesday.  And need to know soon.  

 

Am I likely getting 20" or Not?  

How much for Philly?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

The folks out west have nothing to worry about.

gfs and gefs is a liitle meh for west zones but they are sailing solo while everyone else is on the viking ship drinking heavy. 

[Ginx snewx]

Lol there is a level of Insanity in here equal to if not above Cuckoos Nest. 

[ROOSTA]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

How much for Philly?

Not the question I'd ask...
How much for Orlando?
zero point zero LMAO

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol there is a level of Insanity in here equal to if not above Cuckoos Nest. 

East vs West

North vs South

People be going jack crazy.

[40/70 Benchmark]

If the UK, EURO or GEM verified, this storm won't be worth it....in that case, I'd travel to E NYS, Cory.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

East vs West

North vs South

People be going jack crazy.

Well, he's trying to decide if he should pay $600 to come home....UK isn't worth it in n RI.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

gfs and gefs is a liitle meh for west zones but they are sailing solo while everyone else is on the viking ship drinking heavy. 

Unless you start to see other guidance headed that way, I would not be biting my fingernails.

[jbenedet]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is trending towards epicosity for E NY/W NE, but reduced impact out this way.

No. It's still the SE quadrant of the forum. And less so as you progress NW within that zone. 

A more phased storm with EARLY west track doesn't result in a commensurate shift in ptype. It's non-linear. This quasi-phase solution we're seeing is probably the worst case for SE New England for ptype issues, and wintry impact.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Lol there is a level of Insanity in here equal to if not above Cuckoos Nest. 

As expected, you get inside 60hrs or so and the backyard brawls break out fighting over whos the steady QB amongst the 5 of you. 

[weathafella]

Definite Boxing Day vibe.  Low went through the canal.   Big dump in NYC area and NJ and coastal areas near Boston including the metro area.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

No. It's still the SE quadrant of the forum. And less so as you progress NW within that zone. 

A more phased storm with EARLY west track doesn't result in a commensurate shift in ptype. It's non-linear. This quasi-phase solution we're seeing is probably the worst case for SE New England for ptype issues, and wintry impact.

What are you talking about?

A more phased storm gets tugged nw, which increased dry slot possibility east.