Voyager Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: OT but has anyone been looking at the longer range? Specifically the Euro for next Sunday Monday Tuesday? 10 minutes ago, susqushawn said: Euro has another coastal stall off the coast and drop 6"+ around city N&E. 2 vorts phase with serious negative tilt and eventually stacked cutoff. Seriously??? I know most have had a bad winter, snow wise, but is this really necessary? Ma Nature is taking this backloaded winter stuff to the extreme if that were to happen. If we can get 12-18 regionwide with this storm, then I'm ok with winter fading into spring. Especially considering that it'll stay fairly cold (by March standards) and the snow we get probably will stick around for at least a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Voyager said: Seriously??? I know most have had a bad winter, snow wise, but is this really necessary? Ma Nature is taking this backloaded winter stuff to the extreme if that were to happen. If we can get 12-18 regionwide with this storm, then I'm ok with winter fading into spring. Especially considering that it'll stay fairly cold (by March standards) and the snow we get probably will stick around for at least a few days. no other support whatsoever that I can find. For now, back to our regularly scheduled programming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 80% chance of greater than 12". I guess I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 0z suite was amazing. 6z NAM continues to slowly come in line with other guidance. 6z GFS (gfs in general) still struggling to bring the storm North even during the period of peak intensification.....it keeps redeveloping the slp to the East on top of convection and is currently the outlier. 6z RGEM may be another big hit when extrapolating and would support the 0z CMC. NCEP folks tossed the Euro op and suggest the ens mean is more realistic (16-18" snowfall mean SE PA). Everything is falling in to place I will not have access to internet today again which is probably good but as soon as I do around 8PM I will make my call. Keep in mind while things look good right now we are still 36 hours from the onset and we could still get a last minute shift or adjustment. Great spot to be tho right now, no doubt. Going to be interesting where the mix line sets up shop. Historically it will be all snow to a mix line around Swedesboro NJ As the storm bombs out it snows back to Cape May. 1st call - PHL airport 9.7 inches AC airport - 5.7 Plymouth Meeting 14 inches Mt Pocono - 20 or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I don't take any of this seriously until Monmouth is jackpot and there is an additional 2-4 wrap around Sent from my iPad using TapatalkLike I said yesterday..........Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 my call back in the middle of November - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/48844-predict-the-date-first-bonafide-noreaster-of-the-season/?do=findComment&comment=4327194 Siberia, siberia, siberia.. with such an unusually strong and consistently cold pattern continuing over Siberia for the next 2 weeks plus.. (when you hear their closing schools in Russia , just from the cold...you know it's bad) I wouldn't be surprised to see this winter last longer than other winters, for the U.S. A record cold Spring wouldn't surprise me. With the PV more spread out, and not piling up the cold near the north pole, like it typically does this time of year.... expect a more spread-out cold pattern.. with lesser chances of brutally cold outbreaks , but higher chances of generally cold outbreaks. (0 to 30F ) A late start , but it'll hang around. February - April could be the most interesting, winter storm wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 12z 12km parallel Nam shows 12 to 15 inches area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Latest Wxsim with 12z NAM/ 6z GFS combo - pushing a general 7" to 12" event in the NW Philly burbs....here in Palm Harbor FL where I will be for this storm it is Partly Sunny and 74 right now... Monday night: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A slight chance of snow in the evening, then snow likely after midnight. Low 25. Wind chill ranging from 15 to 32. Wind southeast around 5 mph in the evening, becoming east-northeast around 9 mph, gusting to 17 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow accumulation 3 to 5 inches. Tuesday: Dense overcast. Snow likely in the morning, then a chance of snow in the afternoon. High 31. Wind northeast around 11 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the morning, becoming 5 mph, gusting to 17 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 4 inches. Tuesday night: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog after midnight. Snow likely in the evening, then a chance of snow after midnight. Low 26. Wind chill ranging from 18 to 29. Wind east-southeast near calm in the evening, becoming north around 5 mph, gusting to 18 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Instead of zeroing in on a consensus at 12z a big difference between NAM/RGEM and GFS. The forums to the NE says GFS is wrong with convection off the coast. The MA crew thinks it is right cause it has more snow for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Instead of zeroing in on a consensus at 12z a big difference between NAM/RGEM and GFS. The forums to the NE says GFS is wrong with convection off the coast. The MA crew thinks it is right cause it has more snow for them. Of course, IMBYSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: Instead of zeroing in on a consensus at 12z a big difference between NAM/RGEM and GFS. The forums to the NE says GFS is wrong with convection off the coast. The MA crew thinks it is right cause it has more snow for them. Lol...that's funny. But feel bad for them...because they get shafted just about every time. 26.9F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Big blizzard on the GGEM for us again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Of course, IMBY Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk We like the Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Can someone PLEASE post 12z GFS snow map? Got peeps in jersey asking about GFS from just now and can't find maps in any regional thread. TY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 gem just keeps on giving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, wkd said: gem just keeps on giving Ninja'd lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Violentweatherfan said: Ninja'd lol Nice Canadian!! GFS??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Can someone PLEASE post 12z GFS snow map? Got peeps in jersey asking about GFS from just now and can't find maps in any regional thread. TY! Here you go Tropical Tidbits you can get many of them from here GFSsnowtotals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, wasnow215 said: Nice Canadian!! GFS??? The mod's in the NYC forum are deleting snow maps due to storm mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Violentweatherfan said: The mod's in the NYC forum are deleting snow maps due to storm mode. Really?? Why?? Aren't pictures worth a thousand words?? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, wasnow215 said: Really?? Why?? Aren't pictures worth a thousand words?? Lol Clutter, interferes with discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Waiting for a Canadian kuchera just for laughs on how big would the SEPA bullseye shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, RedSky said: Waiting for a Canadian kuchera just for laughs on how big would the SEPA bullseye shows Nah Id rather go with the 10-1 and be pleasantly surprised, anyway I wonder if that GFS map was smoothed out what it would look like hard to tell from that image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, RedSky said: Here you go Tropical Tidbits you can get many of them from here GFSsnowtotals Tyvm! And I won't say anymore but if maps were allowed then half the discussion wouldn't be needed!:) I need facts! Thanks again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Crazy uncle Ukie is near identical track and QPF to the Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, RedSky said: Crazy uncle Ukie is near identical track and QPF to the Canadian To quote a poster from NYC, it's close to the coast and not much more time left. Not liking the western movement. The common denominator is QPF though...hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Appears to be crawling as well as just off the coast. I'm close to being all in with this something is saying not yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, penndotguy said: Appears to be crawling as well as just off the coast. Interesting how the NAM has this a quick hitter and other models have it a longer duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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