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March 13-14 Storm


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This reminds me of a storm from Dec 1995, mid month (can't recall the exact date). We were forecasted to get 12-16 or so, but it turned into a huge sleet fest instead. That winter was so epic, with the Jan '96 blizzard, no one remembers the let downs from that year.

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Just took the dogs out, and it was literally sleeting, then snowing, then raining.  Though the rain might just be the snow and sleet being annihilated mid air and hitting me as plain water.

And it is definitely heavy stuff.  If you can, get out and shovel some now.  Wow. 

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:


Not sure your location but this is turning into a potential life threatening situation up here really quickly for all the wrong reasons. Epic sleet/ice storm unfolding.

I am located in southern chester county in mushroom country.  Not even close to blizzard criteria happening, it's still a mix here and has been since about 3:30am.

There is little accretion happening, I don't know, should we experience some wind soon will have power issues.  Snow accumulation 2 inches here.

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From what I have heard, the more western track of the low pressure system vs. most of the modelling (save for perhaps the NAM) introduced more warm air at the mid-levels.  Thus, the warmth (between 700 and 850) was more impressive than models indicated and led to the sleetfest in the Philly suburbs / Lehigh Valley.

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5 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

The NAM had some warm solutions but everyone dismissed it as the NAM being the NAM.

The NAM still tends to amp in the mid-range but it has been performing well for suggesting final outcomes.

Storm is starting to pull away from the south but will be interesting to see if any of those NW bands wrap around to hit here as the storm moves NE.  My temp continues to slowly drop. Still some blowing snow with the SN-.

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2 hours ago, shemATC said:

So, I realize there were warm layers aloft, but usually high precip rates would drop the temps.  Why were the deform bands for this storm more sleet?  Or were what we were thinking were deform bands on radar simply higher echos because they were sleet?

Once the warm air it here there is no getting rid of it... Damage is done 

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30 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

The NAM still tends to amp in the mid-range but it has been performing well for suggesting final outcomes.

Storm is starting to pull away from the south but will be interesting to see if any of those NW bands wrap around to hit here as the storm moves NE.  My temp continues to slowly drop. Still some blowing snow with the SN-.

The NAM has scored a couple of minor coup's this winter.

 

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I mean even the para nam and 4k nam were majorly wrong. they sided mostly with the gfs and euro. 12k nam and rgem were the winners. yesterday's 12z rgem may have been the best run of what actually happened, though 18z 12k nam was accurate as well. I think in general if it comes down to short term models vs globals then the short term models should be given the edge even if the globals have been consistent. the short term models picked up on the possible mixing issues yesterday and they were ignored by everyone because gfs and euro had been remarkably consistent. I will at least give the short term models much more weight in the future. 

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1 minute ago, Lady Di said:

In the few years I've been lurking here, always thought the short range NAM was pretty good no?

It seemed to be the only model yesterday that showed all that sleet. 

it tends to overdue warmth and qpf at times especially if it is warmer and wetter than every model. yesterday was not one of those times though.

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1 minute ago, The Iceman said:

it's done save for maybe a stray snow shower. this is ithe, unbelievable I know since the forecast was 18-24" last night but that's all she wrote on this ****storm.

Wow, maybe climatology wise we are headed back to the '70/80's it seemed almost every storm we would get wound up like this. 

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7 minutes ago, RedSky said:

OK how bad is the HRRR? 

Well the latest HRRR 15z is not finished running it's out 4 hours and has 5" additional snow falling!

 

Yeah, I'm taking the under.

The radar does show a little back building with a snow band in the Balt/DC area ... waiting to see if that swings through a little later (probably not).

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