osfan24 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Euro ensemble is ridiculous. 14-18 inches at 10:1 ratio across the region. Seems super bullish. Some individual members are pretty impressive. A couple approach 2 feet. 4 are pretty much complete misses, especially for Baltimore and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 06Z GEFS has a very similar solution to the overnight EPS. Delays the northern part of the trough/energy and develops a distinct wave on the southern portion of it riding up the trough. Would suggest a southern dominant low. I see the changes as positive. The phasing thing is over simplified. The streams are still interacting just differently. Phasing isn't all or nothing. But instead of a clean transfer between the northern and southern branch and a quick consolidation into one h5 center the stj system is dominant and slingshots up the coast as the northern stream upper energy dives in and swings behind then under it. At that point they do merge into one system. That evo might limit our top end potential a bit because the stj system will be racing north and the disconnect means no wrap around. Maybe with luck some convective snows with the upper low but it's never as good as if their phases up and the upper low has a connection to the moisture inflow. But if we want a 6-12" (maybe a bit more) thump of heavy snow this is the cleanest easiest way to do it. Less risk of bust. Not no risk but less. If we want to go for broke the way this becomes a hecs is now that the southern system is the dominant one if we did trend towards a phase where the northern stream transfers its energy into that system as it bombs off the Carolinas and they come north as a fully consolidated system instead of doing that weird fujiwara thing were talking epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Yes. I think so . gfs is really close to snow ... sleet.. drizzle and dryslot... but it is still a big hit. euro has a great track... little further east of the gfs.. with lots of ensemble support If I were you I would root for the gfs.. where you are.. you would probably get a foot of heavy wet snow Thanks! I'll check out soundings now that I'm at work and can sit and check things out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Anyone have the Panasonic from last night? If not does anyone have the euro qpf output for KFDK? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Anyone have the Panasonic from last night? If not does anyone have the euro qpf output for KFDK? TIA subtract .3 (precip from today) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 06z GFS Cobb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 can't edit that post for some reason -- that's for Westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I see the changes as positive. The phasing thing is over simplified. The streams are still interacting just differently. Phasing isn't all or nothing. But instead of a clean transfer between the northern and southern branch and a quick consolidation into one h5 center the stj system is dominant and slingshots up the coast as the northern stream upper energy dives in and swings behind then under it. At that point they do merge into one system. That evo might limit our top end potential a bit because the stj system will be racing north and the disconnect means no wrap around. Maybe with luck some convective snows with the upper low but it's never as good as if their phases up and the upper low has a connection to the moisture inflow. But if we want a 6-12" (maybe a bit more) thump of heavy snow this is the cleanest easiest way to do it. Less risk of bust. Not no risk but less. If we want to go for broke the way this becomes a hecs is now that the southern system is the dominant one if we did trend towards a phase where the northern stream transfers its energy into that system as it bombs off the Carolinas and they come north as a fully consolidated system instead of doing that weird fujiwara thing were talking epic. Definitely some good points. I say we just go for broke, despite the complications. We seem to be trending toward the southern system becoming dominant, so that piece is there. Getting the transfer as it bombs off the Carolinas is the part that seems like a huge stretch at this point, but maybe I'm missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 can't edit that post for some reason -- that's for Westminster. Can you do the 0z? I think that one was more fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 subtract .3 (precip from today) Thank you. It is appreciated. So it gives Frederick around an inch. So it would look to be between 10-14 with ratios factored in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Can you do the 0z? I think that one was more fun. sure. again for westminster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 06UT GFS DCA (take a gander at the temporal volatility in the snow ratios!) 170314/0000Z 90 09013KT 31.0F SNOW 4:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036 4:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0 170314/0300Z 93 07011KT 30.1F SNOW 21:1| 7.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.341 19:1| 7.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.38 100| 0| 0 170314/0600Z 96 04015KT 30.3F SNOW 8:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.400 14:1| 10.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.78 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 170314/0900Z 99 03017KT 31.2F SNPL 1:1| 0.2|| 0.23|| 0.00|| 0.173 11:1| 10.7|| 0.23|| 0.00|| 0.95 35| 65| 0 170314/1200Z 102 34014KT 31.7F SNOW 9:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.066 11:1| 11.3|| 0.23|| 0.00|| 1.02 100| 0| 0 170314/1500Z 105 32012KT 31.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 11:1| 11.3|| 0.23|| 0.00|| 1.02 0| 0| 0 170314/1800Z 108 31005KT 32.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 11:1| 11.3|| 0.23|| 0.00|| 1.02 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 170314/2100Z 111 VRB01KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 11:1| 11.3|| 0.23|| 0.00|| 1.03 71| 0| 29 170315/0000Z 114 VRB00KT 30.1F SNOW 23:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 11:1| 12.0|| 0.23|| 0.00|| 1.05 100| 0| 0 170315/0300Z 117 27007KT 27.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 11:1| 12.0|| 0.23|| 0.00|| 1.05 0| 0| 0 170315/0600Z 120 32011KT 26.7F SNOW 14:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036 12:1| 12.5|| 0.23|| 0.00|| 1.09 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 170315/0900Z 123 31014KT 22.0F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 12:1| 12.6|| 0.23|| 0.00|| 1.10 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Thank you. It is appreciated. So it gives Frederick around an inch. So it would look to be between 10-14 with ratios factored in? 10:1 snow map has 14" for Frederick. Subtract 2" for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 ^^ sorry -- 12" for Frederick on total snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 ^^ sorry -- 12" for Frederick on total snow map Thanks again. I generally just hide in the background here, but I do have questions every now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Thanks again. I generally just hide in the background here, but I do have questions every now and then. Happy to help! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I see the changes as positive. The phasing thing is over simplified. The streams are still interacting just differently. Phasing isn't all or nothing. But instead of a clean transfer between the northern and southern branch and a quick consolidation into one h5 center the stj system is dominant and slingshots up the coast as the northern stream upper energy dives in and swings behind then under it. At that point they do merge into one system. That evo might limit our top end potential a bit because the stj system will be racing north and the disconnect means no wrap around. Maybe with luck some convective snows with the upper low but it's never as good as if their phases up and the upper low has a connection to the moisture inflow. But if we want a 6-12" (maybe a bit more) thump of heavy snow this is the cleanest easiest way to do it. Less risk of bust. Not no risk but less. If we want to go for broke the way this becomes a hecs is now that the southern system is the dominant one if we did trend towards a phase where the northern stream transfers its energy into that system as it bombs off the Carolinas and they come north as a fully consolidated system instead of doing that weird fujiwara thing were talking epic. I agree, I view the changes as positive as well. My previous comments as far as not phasing were in the general thoughts of in the south that would benefit of our region. Later on we do see the interaction of streams but that would be of more consequence for north of us. Funny you mentioned the bolded above. That was the first thing that entered my mind when I saw the initial setup with just a little adjustment. Adjust that northern portion of the trough to a compromise of both the 12z and the 00z on speed and have that trough drop somewhat deeper and things could become very interesting. But at this point I would be happy with the solution being show which would be a big dog for March which would most likely result in snowfalls of close to a foot or more for those who fall a little north of the rain/snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I agree, I view the changes as positive as well. My previous comments as far as not phasing were in the general thoughts of in the south that would benefit of our region. Later on we do see the interaction of streams but that would be of more consequence for north of us. Funny you mentioned the bolded above. That was the first thing that entered my mind when I saw the initial setup with just a little adjustment. Adjust that northern portion of the trough to a compromise of both the 12z and the 00z on speed and have that trough drop somewhat deeper and things could become very interesting. But at this point I would be happy with the solution being show which would be a big dog for March which would most likely result in snowfalls of close to a foot or more for those who fall a little north of the rain/snow line. So right now it seems like the models are trending towards something more along the lines of a February 14 event in terms of 500 mb pattern. SS dominated low followed by the closed upper level low, but not phased at our latitude. Is that correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Kind of a weird precip hole over the region from the Euro. Dry slot at some point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 So right now it seems like the models are trending towards something more along the lines of a February 14 event in terms of 500 mb pattern. SS dominated low followed by the closed upper level low, but not phased at our latitude. Is that correct? Feb 2014 I assume? Don't have the great memory as others so i will have to look but your description sounds about what we see at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Feb 2014 I assume? Don't have the great memory as others so i will have to look but your description sounds about what we see at this point. Yeah we had a nice front-end thump in DC overnight followed by temps above freezing followed by some light snows with the ULL the next night. Overall it was a great event I believe I measured around 10 inches and people to the NW had 10-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Can someone tell me by chance what the 850s are looking like on the various models for KROA? Im worried about the upper level low to my west northwest screwing the temp profile up for me along the blue ridge here. I do like the fact the EURO deepens rapidly, so as to lock the cold air in. One would think the precip field would be more expansive with bombogenesis being induced if I did see it correctly, in which the Low deepens to 986 off VA/NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 From WPC- THE SETUP IS NOT YOUR CLASSIC MILLER TYPE-A OR TYPE-B STORM BUT SEEMINGLY A COMBINATION OF THE TWO -- THERE IS FORECAST TO BE AN ALREADY-DEFINED SURFACE LOW OFF THE GA COAST LATE MONDAY (VERY MILLER TYPE-A) IN ADDITION TO AN UPSTREAM CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY (LIKE A MILLER TYPE-B). HOW THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL DETERMINE HOW THE DOMINANT LOW TRACKS -- IT COULD BE TUGGED FARTHER WEST BY A STRONGLY DIGGING TROUGH OR BE LEFT TO SWING FARTHER EAST. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE THE SPREAD OF POSSIBILITIES IS NECESSARILY LARGE, ENCOMPASSING NEARLY ALL SCENARIOS FROM A LIGHT/MINOR EVENT TO AN OUTRIGHT BLIZZARD, DEPENDING ON YOUR LOCATION. 12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN LIED ON THE MORE EXTREME SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD (BUT WITHIN THE ENVELOPE) AS THEY MAINTAINED TWO SEPARATE UPPER LOWS DUMBBELLING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS RUNS WERE MORE COHERENT BUT STILL SHOWED SEPARATED VORTICITY SWINGING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. SUFFICE IT TO SAY, THE MODELS WILL NOT GET THE DETAILS RIGHT AT THIS TIME RANGE, SO DETERMINISTIC SUCCESS IS FUTILE. RATHER, THE RANGE OF SCENARIOS SHOULD BE KEPT IN MIND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Yeah we had a nice front-end thump in DC overnight followed by temps above freezing followed by some light snows with the ULL the next night. Overall it was a great event I believe I measured around 10 inches and people to the NW had 10-20. I know people are desperate for snow, but we don't get setups where we can go kaboom very often. I'd rather go all in. Feb 2014 was an ok event, but we got thumped late overnight when few were up and then, unless you are up with PSU, you had 10-12 inches on the ground and most of it was melted by the end of the day. This being in March, I can only imagine it being worse. I'll go with the dig and phase and take my chances it's a total bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I know people are desperate for snow, but we don't get setups where we can go kaboom very often. I'd rather go all in. Feb 2014 was an ok event, but we got thumped late overnight when few were up and then, unless you are up with PSU, you had 10-12 inches on the ground and most of it was melted by the end of the day. This being in March, I can only imagine it being worse. I'll go with the dig and phase and take my chances it's a total bust. I dunno. I'd be very happy with 10-12 even if it melted quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 22 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Can someone tell me by chance what the 850s are looking like on the various models for KROA? Im worried about the upper level low to my west northwest screwing the temp profile up for me along the blue ridge here. I do like the fact the EURO deepens rapidly, so as to lock the cold air in. One would think the precip field would be more expansive with bombogenesis being induced if I did see it correctly, in which the Low deepens to 986 off VA/NC coast. looking at GFS, your 850 is plenty cold when precip starts monday evening and throughout the event. 925T is touchy mid-Tuesday but I think bulk of precip is out of the area by then. You're fine on the Euro as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, mappy said: looking at GFS, your 850 is plenty cold when precip starts monday evening and throughout the event. 925T is touchy mid-Tuesday but I think bulk of precip is out of the area by then. You're fine on the Euro as well. Thanks a lot Mappy appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 18 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I know people are desperate for snow, but we don't get setups where we can go kaboom very often. I'd rather go all in. Feb 2014 was an ok event, but we got thumped late overnight when few were up and then, unless you are up with PSU, you had 10-12 inches on the ground and most of it was melted by the end of the day. This being in March, I can only imagine it being worse. I'll go with the dig and phase and take my chances it's a total bust. I was kind of annoyed by how quickly the roads were cleared after the thump, but the bolded part just didn't happen. A lot melted the *next* day because temps spiked. But light rain with temps in the 30's during the day, before the second burst of snow, meant not much melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Even a long duration of non sticking snow would be a coup for this Winter. As a hobbyist, I'd be a little concerned about the progressive pattern that's existed most of the season due to a lack of blocking. Even with an ideal track I would imagine getting a slow moving bomb would be pretty exceptional given what we've dealt with. From the discussion above it almost sounds like this could become a NS dominant event if the lagging energy is too far East which may require more digging than what's been shown. Might as well be in since it might be the last best chance for accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Thanks a lot Mappy appreciate it. Welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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