March med-long range disco thread 2

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

So which storm are we looking at now?  Tuesday?  The next one after that?

LOL, we continue to look I suppose.

Well, since Sunday was going to the crapper, what other choice we got?   Now Tuesday is looking less impressive on the GFS.  The beat goes on

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

Not digging as much at 138.  If I'm correct we want this to dig even more, right?

Correct, but still manages to get a storm going, just not as good as 6z

[stormtracker]

It's still a win though this far out.  We still got the look

[CAPE]

Something looks wonky with that coastal.

[Fozz]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Correct, but still manages to get a storm going, just not as good as 6z

Problem is, if precip is light, that isn't going to cut it in mid-March with marginal temps and a high sun angle. At least the general setup is still there.

[Amped]

Looks like a January 2005 or February 2013 screwjob.

[TowsonWeather]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Something looks wonky with that coastal.

It's a fugly Miller B. If it evolves as depicted, we should all know what that means for the vast majority of us. We need to hope for a different outcome.

[psuhoffman]

GFS is SOOOOO close ugh, its taking its time with the phase and that hurts us, we need things to come together just a BIT faster.  H5 is gorgeous.  But everything is a disorganized mess and takes 6 hours too long to decide to phase and come together.  Potential is there for sure.  We are still WAY out there for the models to nail down the specifics on that kind of thing.

[MDstorm]

[CAPE]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

GFS is SOOOOO close ugh, its taking its time with the phase and that hurts us, we need things to come together just a BIT faster.  H5 is gorgeous.  But everything is a disorganized mess and takes 6 hours too long to decide to phase and come together.  Potential is there for sure.  We are still WAY out there for the models to nail down the specifics on that kind of thing.

Yeah big picture. It has the general idea. Damn sweet at h5.

[Fozz]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

GFS is SOOOOO close ugh, its taking its time with the phase and that hurts us, we need things to come together just a BIT faster.  H5 is gorgeous.  But everything is a disorganized mess and takes 6 hours too long to decide to phase and come together.  Potential is there for sure.  We are still WAY out there for the models to nail down the specifics on that kind of thing.

That's why I was a little wary of the 6z GFS since it came together just in time to nail us, and I knew that any delay would mess things up. This current run is a good example of what that looks like. Hopefully it won't turn out this way.

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Problem is, if precip is light, that isn't going to cut it in mid-March with marginal temps and a high sun angle. At least the general setup is still there.

Yes Fozz, this was my point.  I'm not taking specifics of a 140 hour prog to heart right now. 

[CAPE]

I know people love the snow maps, but at this juncture they are especially useless. So much yet to be resolved with this one.

[Fozz]

1 minute ago, MDstorm said:

I'd be a little wary of snow maps since we don't know whether all of that snow will actually accumulate. If precip is spotty during the day, the sun angle will be an issue.

[Superstorm]

It's a fugly Miller B. If it evolves as depicted, we should all know what that means for the vast majority of us. We need to hope for a different outcome.

Miller B is ok especially with that 500 look. As PSU stated it will come down to how quickly things come together.


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[NorthArlington101]

GFS is showing light snow for two days straight. Guess that's wintry.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

It's a fugly Miller B. If it evolves as depicted, we should all know what that means for the vast majority of us. We need to hope for a different outcome.

Ok I am not trying to pick a fight but this "miller b were screwed" stuff is tired.  Yes a miller a bomb up the coast is ideal and those tend to work more, although even those can run inland and we go to rain so its not 100 percent, but yes a miller a is like our ideal situation.  But we get one of those like once every 3 years.  They are super rare.  Most of our snow threats, like 90% of them, are not PERFECT.  They involve needing SOME luck.  The amount of luck determines how good a threat obviously, but we get a good bit of our snow from miller b storms.  Do they turn out to be 10"+ storms as often as a miller A, NO but we don't get that man of those anyways.  Many of our 3-6" snows are from miller b storms.  Are we really punting all of them?  That makes up most of our snow climo.  And once in a while a miller b comes together and we get blasted.  I am not ignoring the possibility of fail here from the slower phasing and northern stream dominant evolution, the GFS went the wrong way, although I would argue at H5 it looks better then the surface produced, but I am also tired of hearing the fatalistic attitude EVERY time there is a miller b threat.  We fail here more often then not because we are in a sucky spot for snow.  But waiting around for a miller a once every few years to think we can get snow is silly. 

[yoda]

Not quite sure what is going with the 12z GGEM between hrs 108 and 126... its like it has one SLP... then two, then back to one as it meanders

Its a miss for Tuesday btw

[osfan24]

Agree with the above. We obviously all like Miller A's more and Miller B's tend to fail more, but they also work sometimes too.

[Fozz]

Just now, osfan24 said:

Agree with the above. We obviously all like Miller A's more and Miller B's tend to fail more, but they also work sometimes too.

Yeah, the Miller B hate is overdone. I can think of a number of good storms that were Miller B, including some overperformers.

[Amped]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Not quite sure what is going with the 12z GGEM between hrs 108 and 126... its like it has one SLP... then two, then back to one as it meanders

Typical GGEM convective feedback  nonsense.

[WxUSAF]

This GFS depiction is just frought with peril. Too far west for the coastal and then the northern stream energy hops over us is a real big risk. Two days of clouds and occasional light snizzle. A partial phase probably does us no favors.

[TowsonWeather]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok I am not trying to pick a fight but this "miller b were screwed" stuff is tired.  Yes a miller a bomb up the coast is ideal and those tend to work more, although even those can run inland and we go to rain so its not 100 percent, but yes a miller a is like our ideal situation.  But we get one of those like once every 3 years.  They are super rare.  Most of our snow threats, like 90% of them, are not PERFECT.  They involve needing SOME luck.  The amount of luck determines how good a threat obviously, but we get a good bit of our snow from miller b storms.  Do they turn out to be 10"+ storms as often as a miller A, NO but we don't get that man of those anyways.  Many of our 3-6" snows are from miller b storms.  Are we really punting all of them?  That makes up most of our snow climo.  And once in a while a miller b comes together and we get blasted.  I am not ignoring the possibility of fail here from the slower phasing and northern stream dominant evolution, the GFS went the wrong way, although I would argue at H5 it looks better then the surface produced, but I am also tired of hearing the fatalistic attitude EVERY time there is a miller b threat.  We fail here more often then not because we are in a sucky spot for snow.  But waiting around for a miller a once every few years to think we can get snow is silly. 

I understand, and your point is a good one. But you also know as well as I do that a northern stream Miller B coming together at that latitude rarely works out for us. Not never, absolutely. But it's unlikely. I'm also not saying "Miller A or bust" - there are a ton of sort of hybrid Miller Bs and overrunning events, and clippers, and countless other storms that can give us snow. The Miller A monster is rare, and I recognize that. I don't at all mean to crap on Miller Bs in general - and this one certainly COULD work out for us. I'm rooting hard for it. But again, as depicted it doesn't give me warm fuzzies. 

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Something looks wonky with that coastal.

It doesn't have a "clean" phase.  at around hour 138 it misses the chance to phase cleanly and bomb one low along the coast, as the H5 there might argue should happen.  Instead it sort of fujiwara's the primary and secondary and the coastal wave slingshots to the northeast off the coast and the primary wraps around behind.  Eventually they come together and consolidate into one phased monster up off New England, but that weird fujiwara instead of a clean phase off the mid atlantic robs a good bit of the moisture.  I am almost amazed the northeast half of our forum gets as much precip as it does given that weird development.  Even if that was the way this is going to go, that is NOT the kind of evolution the models can pinpoint and get accurate from this range.  Not even from 72 hours honestly, if that is how its gonna go down it will be almost a nowcasting type thing.  But given the H5 presentation I almost feel like the surface solution the GFS just spit out was sort of a worst case scenario there.  I saw way more upside potential with the H5 look, and then when I went and looked at the surface it was a letdown. 

[TowsonWeather]

Man, the GFS just misses the phase a couple days later, also. That is something that clearly bears watching.

[mappy]

12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I know people love the snow maps, but at this juncture they are especially useless. So much yet to be resolved with this one.

Look at all the pretty pinks and purples that so many will miss out on

[yoda]

I am thinking we like this map, no?  This is the h5 map at 144 on the 12z UKIE:

[stormtracker]

Yeah, we just lost the CMC.  

[mappy]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, we just lost the CMC.  

 I'd say

[stormtracker]

UK looks good to me...maybe better than last night?