pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 11 minutes ago, paweather said: Love it. I don't know why there is not more collaboration between NWS offices when it comes to watches and warnings. of course if the DID give me the pen, I'd just do a big circle round Pa and northern MD. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 18Z GFS, great runSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 18z GFS good for most: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, paweather said: 18z GFS good for most: Is there more after 84? If not, that big shaft to the NEPA folks. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Voyager said: Is there more after 84? If not, that big shaft to the NEPA folks. Wow! still looks like a good 6-8 for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, paweather said: still looks like a good 6-8 for you guys. I get slightly more than that, but after what's been depicted for those guys the past few days, it's kind of a smack in the face... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 heres a little closer view. based on surface maps, GFS finally caught on to the paltry NW quad snow and started to correct. I'm willing to bet that if the GFS holds position tonight, we see a nice expansion of snow in much of PA, I cant wait. Taking my bro and his wife out for 50th bday celebration (they share same Bday Feb 25). Hes a snow hound like me. Much to talk about. My wife is up to her ears in weather talk. I'm drivin her and the fam nuts.....but thats how I roll. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 From the Mid Atlantic forum Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 GFS actually looks a lot like the Euro just with a more expansive moisture plum on the western side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Jns2183 said: From the Mid Atlantic forum Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro GFS brings the LSV near 1 foot, & with that track I think we get 12 to 13 to 1, if not even a little better ratio, so tack on a few more inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, canderson said: GFS actually looks a lot like the Euro just with a more expansive moisture plum on the western side. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickg2 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 From NWS BGM: Edit to get correct info: NYZ015>018-022>025-036-044-045-055-056-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048- 072-122045- /O.NEW.KBGM.WS.A.0004.170314T0000Z-170316T0000Z/ Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-Schuyler-Chemung- Tompkins-Madison-Cortland-Chenango-Tioga-Broome-Bradford- Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike- Southern Wayne- Including the cities of Penn Yan, Seneca Falls, Auburn, Syracuse, Corning, Hornell, Watkins Glen, Elmira, Ithaca, Hamilton, Oneida, Cortland, Norwich, Owego, Waverly, Binghamton, Sayre, Towanda, Hallstead, Montrose, Damascus, Equinunk, Tunkhannock, Scranton, Hazleton, Wilkes-Barre, Milford, and Honesdale 331 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a Winter Storm Watch, which is in effect from Monday evening through Wednesday evening. * LOCATIONS...All of Northeast Pennsylvania and most of Central New York. * HAZARD TYPES...Heavy snow. * ACCUMULATIONS...Potential for storm total snowfall of a foot or more, from Monday night through Wednesday. * TIMING...Snow is expected to develop over the region Monday night, possibly becoming heavy on Tuesday, and persisting into Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Heavy snow may cause significant travel disruptions from Monday night into Wednesday. * WINDS...North 5 to 15 mph from Monday night into Wednesday, with gusts up to 25 mph. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for heavy snow that could severely impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. && $$ Jurewicz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, canderson said: GFS actually looks a lot like the Euro just with a more expansive moisture plum on the western side. Im tellin ya....0z GFS tonight will be money. Back to perty colors of yesterday..or something similar. checkin out for a few hours. Dial this puppy in . Were getting this on on the deck gang. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Yeah, someone mentioned in MA forum about high stronger. Could be reason northeast snow is not as expansive.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 No matter the model it seems the LSV gets at least 8" out of thisSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: No matter the model it seems the LSV gets at least 8" out of this Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro The WPC map posted back about an hour ago almost mirrors the GFS to a tee. Bullseye LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Try not to look at exact qpf amounts right now. Precipitation shield looked great, and temps not an issue. Tomorrow in my opinion is when you should start worrying about amounts. Overall a nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Take a look at the latest German 18z model posted in the Mid-Atlantic forum thread. It puts down 30-40 millimeters of precip to the entire Susquehanna valley, which equates to about 1.2 to 1.5 inches of precip- thanks to google for the conversion calculator! Do your own math for the snow amounts from that amount of liquid- pick your favorite ratio! I don't know what its skill score is, but I've seen the mid-Atlantic guys post it, but who cares, it's another model showing us a win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 I'm kinda surprised NWS CWA's to our north and east are already throwing up watches and CTP on south hasn't yet. Even BUF has their entire CWA under a watch. I guess we are getting towards about 48 hours or so until this potential high impact event is on the doorstep. On the other hand, I agree with CTP withholding putting anything up yet. I wouldn't anticipate they do so until after they see some or all of 0z guidance tonight.. though I just saw they upgraded their graphics with big numbers. I'm still leery of the far north central counties west of US 15 near the border as well as maybe Elk and Cameron counties seeing solid warning snows although the models have been lingering snowfall over PA after the main coastal is off to the northeast. New CTP graphics Most likely snowfall: Potential for this much: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickg2 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The kiddies mentioned a "state of emergency". None issued yet. Of course, their entire following are now tweeting and fbing that a state of emergency has been issued. also they posted their first guess. that was in line with the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 GEFS moist and west of OP. Are they still useful at this point?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: GEFS moist and west of OP. Are they still useful at this point? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Once inside 48 I think the op starts to hold more weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickg2 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 here is the range for nepa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 here is the range for nepa...Bit of a difference between CTP and them Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickg2 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Bit of a difference between CTP and them Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro there is always a difference... CTP tends to be more generous with the totals and the watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 there is always a difference... CTP tends to be more generous with the totals and the watches. This seems to be the opposite Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 33 minutes ago, Superstorm said: GEFS moist and west of OP. Are they still useful at this point? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 18z GEFS gives 10-12 inches of snow to the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickg2 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: This seems to be the opposite Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro I think our winter storm warning snow fall accumulation numbers are higher. Often times I see that we are the last to have warnings issues (although this is one of the rare times that we were first). OR I can see both PHL and CTP are warned and we are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Our friends over at S&S say blizzard conditions and 10"-20" for everyone east of a Hagerstown-Chambersburg-Bloomfield line. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 FWIW Dt doesnt believe the euro Quote EUROPEAN MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOWS THAT THE OPERATIONAL EURO which at 1pm took the LOW waaay East ... and hence a lot LESS SNOW for all of the Northeast US-- IS BOGUS... fake, spurious, false, , deceptive; counterfeit, feigned; , pseudo, fictitious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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