Central PA - March 2017

[Jim Marusak]

14 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Good info....Yes, a possible trend. Or moving towards other guidance.


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just did a d(model)/d(t) real quick on the CMC GDPS and yea, the trend is having it getting closer to the GFS/ECMWF, but still a bit further out than the UKMet, at least as I could see it (yes one of these days I need to get a weatherbell or one of the better paid model sites paid subscription).  but the run to run consistency at least synoptically of the GFS over the last 4-6 model runs has been almost too close for comfort. almost like what happened out here in the twin cities a couple of weeks ago that was advertising for several days a big dump in the metro itself, then all of a sudden we're doing the "nuts and bolts" cheer as the cities got squat and areas 40-50 miles south of the metro "as the crow flies"  got blasted.

in that twin cities storm a couple of weeks ago, one of the better runs was the new hopwrf global model, using the MPAS voronoi mesh (read flexible hexagonal grid, and was a candidate for the future gfs before the other option was chosen), as it had the furthest south paths of the models, on a run to run basis. when looking at the 18Z run of that one, it's showing at least synoptically, an I-81 special blast. you might want to keep an eye on that one.

for those who haven't used it before, it's at hopwrf.info , and the option i'm talking about is the MPAS-global output. it is a bit slower to run as they are hosted by Hopkins HS (in cooperation with the U of M and the NWS-MPX) and they don't have anywhere near the hardware as NCEP. but the school district does host it partially to help teach the students in programming, rudimentary modeling, and rudimentary graphics production, and the school district gets a first look at it for their own use.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 0z Euro continues the trend of crushing CTP with snow on Tuesday! It brings 15-20 inches to all of CTP. The Kuchera ratio snow map shows amounts near 20 inches in the Harrisburg & Lancaster area. It also brings 15-18 to the State College & Williamsport area. The bullseye this run goes to Voyager country, with amounts near 2 feet !

[pasnownut]

15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 0z Euro continues the trend of crushing CTP with snow on Tuesday! It brings 15-20 inches to all of CTP. The Kuchera ratio snow map shows amounts near 20 inches in the Harrisburg & Lancaster area. It also brings 15-18 to the State College & Williamsport area. The bullseye this run goes to Voyager country, with amounts near 2 feet !

was getting ready to parse through the pages to see what it did....

Ok...back to bed

Ok maybe not,    

[Blizzard of 93]

More good news from the 0z EPS. It has a great storm track that puts down around 10 inches to the State College & Williamsport area & around 14 inches to the Harrisburg & Lancaster area. 37 out of the 51 individual ensemble members had great results that we would be thrilled to see verify. The ensembles don't factor in ratios, so the amounts would support the 0z Euro Op run as well.

[pasnownut]

Hi

[AllWeather]

3 hours ago, Jim Marusak said:

just did a d(model)/d(t) real quick on the CMC GDPS and yea, the trend is having it getting closer to the GFS/ECMWF, but still a bit further out than the UKMet, at least as I could see it (yes one of these days I need to get a weatherbell or one of the better paid model sites paid subscription).  but the run to run consistency at least synoptically of the GFS over the last 4-6 model runs has been almost too close for comfort. almost like what happened out here in the twin cities a couple of weeks ago that was advertising for several days a big dump in the metro itself, then all of a sudden we're doing the "nuts and bolts" cheer as the cities got squat and areas 40-50 miles south of the metro "as the crow flies"  got blasted.

in that twin cities storm a couple of weeks ago, one of the better runs was the new hopwrf global model, using the MPAS voronoi mesh (read flexible hexagonal grid, and was a candidate for the future gfs before the other option was chosen), as it had the furthest south paths of the models, on a run to run basis. when looking at the 18Z run of that one, it's showing at least synoptically, an I-81 special blast. you might want to keep an eye on that one.

for those who haven't used it before, it's at hopwrf.info , and the option i'm talking about is the MPAS-global output. it is a bit slower to run as they are hosted by Hopkins HS (in cooperation with the U of M and the NWS-MPX) and they don't have anywhere near the hardware as NCEP. but the school district does host it partially to help teach the students in programming, rudimentary modeling, and rudimentary graphics production, and the school district gets a first look at it for their own use.

Thank you for bringing this up. I was trying to think about any storms that had major metropolitan areas in bullseyes for snow epicenters to trend away at the last minute for a big bust. This event came to mind for me as my sister and brother-in-law (who live in MSP) were expecting a foot of snow. They called me the night before and asked me my opinion to which I said it looks like a close miss. But the runs earlier that day had shown them getting smacked. 

 

Personally, for the Tuesday system, I'm more concerned with an overamplification or early/full phasing system to draw the low closer to the coast and create a mix line somewhere in the eastern part of this forum. I think there's also going to be quite the epic dryslot from this as the coastal low tracks just east of KACY with the inland low still hanging on, but falling apart. Before the dryslot hits Tuesday afternoon, snow rates could come down at 1-3"/hr for an extended period of time (maybe 6-10 hours), realizing 12"+ totals in a short period of time. That moisture plume in the warm conveyer belt as the deformation zone takes shape is going to be Jan 2016 blizzard-worthy. If only GOES-16 was operational!

[Superstorm]

Thank you for bringing this up. I was trying to think about any storms that had major metropolitan areas in bullseyes for snow epicenters to trend away at the last minute for a big bust. This event came to mind for me as my sister and brother-in-law (who live in MSP) were expecting a foot of snow. They called me the night before and asked me my opinion to which I said it looks like a close miss. But the runs earlier that day had shown them getting smacked. 

 

Personally, for the Tuesday system, I'm more concerned with an overamplification or early/full phasing system to draw the low closer to the coast and create a mix line somewhere in the eastern part of this forum. I think there's also going to be quite the epic dryslot from this as the coastal low tracks just east of KACY with the inland low still hanging on, but falling apart. Before the dryslot hits Tuesday afternoon, snow rates could come down at 1-3"/hr for an extended period of time (maybe 6-10 hours), realizing 12"+ totals in a short period of time. That moisture plume in the warm conveyer belt as the deformation zone takes shape is going to be Jan 2016 blizzard-worthy. If only GOES-16 was operational!

Been my fear here in Lancaster. Prior to that, EPIC rates.


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[Voyager]

2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 0z Euro continues the trend of crushing CTP with snow on Tuesday! It brings 15-20 inches to all of CTP. The Kuchera ratio snow map shows amounts near 20 inches in the Harrisburg & Lancaster area. It also brings 15-18 to the State College & Williamsport area. The bullseye this run goes to Voyager country, with amounts near 2 feet !

It would be something if, in my 15 years living in Tamaqua, that the ONE storm that would bullseye the area would be the one that I wasn't at home for...lol

I won't be far away (Bloomsburg) but there's nothing like seeing a blockbuster snowfall in your own backyard as opposed to somewhere else. Oh well. For the reason I'll be in Bloom, it'll be worth it I suppose.

[Superstorm]

Matt, FYI, I'm rooting for scenario 1.

Good synopsis for the public.


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[Atomixwx]

My fear is that the mix line is in the LSV while the dry slot happens from I-99 to I-81, therefore screwing us all lol.

[2001kx]

52 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

My fear is that the mix line is in the LSV while the dry slot happens from I-99 to I-81, therefore screwing us all lol.

 Wouldnt that be nice.

[AllWeather]

1 hour ago, Atomixwx said:

My fear is that the mix line is in the LSV while the dry slot happens from I-99 to I-81, therefore screwing us all lol.

You monster.

[AllWeather]

1 hour ago, Superstorm said:

Matt, FYI, I'm rooting for scenario 1.

Good synopsis for the public.


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Thanks! Trying to convey uncertainty here. The ways out of a big storm have shrunk since yesterday, but are still there. 

[Atomixwx]

3 minutes ago, AllWeather said:

You monster.

That's right, Weatherman, I'm the worst kind of evil

[NortheastPAWx]

1 hour ago, Atomixwx said:

My fear is that the mix line is in the LSV while the dry slot happens from I-99 to I-81, therefore screwing us all lol.

While the 99 to 81 screw zone has certainly been...RATHER PREVALENT!!!! (rages, calms down) ... in recent winters, if you take the modeling verbatim, I don't think it happens this time. This storm will have a huge moisture fetch and explosive development, with every model progging a large precip shield for a change.

Only way the mix line gets to the LSV imo is if you get a 12z/0z GFS solution from yesterday and perhaps would have to be further west than that. If mixing is all the way to the LSV, that wouldn't be good in my region!

[pawatch]

47 minutes ago, AllWeather said:

Thanks! Trying to convey uncertainty here. The ways out of a big storm have shrunk since yesterday, but are still there. 

Just tell them Matt. We're going to get a s hit,ton of snow.

Thanks for your thoughts.

[canderson]

2 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

My fear is that the mix line is in the LSV while the dry slot happens from I-99 to I-81, therefore screwing us all lol.

You shut up. SHUT UP THIS VERY INSTANT.

[Voyager]

9 minutes ago, canderson said:

You shut up. SHUT UP THIS VERY INSTANT.

[canderson]

Yesterday I mentioned wind. 

A fire in Harrisburg got caught in the wind and roared and I believe killed at least one firefighter that pulled three kids out of the burning house and went in for another. No official confirmation but that's the word out  

No words. 

[AllWeather]

26 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Just tell them Matt. We're going to get a s hit,ton of snow.

Thanks for your thoughts.

 and if I'm wrong, I'll get pitchforked and burned at the stake by south-central PA. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Matt, or anyone else, Can you please explain &/or find out the justification for CTP 's official snow measurement for MDT for yesterday's event ?

As of the 5 pm update yesterday they somehow only recorded .9 inches of snow despite multiple reports from all directions nearby to Middletown having 2 to 3 inches per their own Public Info Statement from trained spotters & various other sources that they noted.

To further add to this frustration, with the final daily update overnight, they lowered the daily measurement that went in the books down to just .2 inches ?!

[AllWeather]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Matt, or anyone else, Can you please explain &/or find out the justification for CTP 's official snow measurement for MDT for yesterday's event ?

As of the 5 pm update yesterday they somehow only recorded .9 inches of snow despite multiple reports from all directions nearby to Middletown having 2 to 3 inches per their own Public Info Statement from trained spotters & various other sources that they noted.

To further add to this frustration, with the final daily update overnight, they lowered the daily measurement that went in the books down to just .2 inches ?!

Agreed. I have no idea what that was. I, like you, am skeptical of that measurement. Maybe the official measurement was taken after some melting took place? Not really sure there. I can ask in NWS chat, but no guarantee they'll get back to me!

[AllWeather]

20 minutes ago, canderson said:

Yesterday I mentioned wind. 

A fire in Harrisburg got caught in the wind and roared and I believe killed at least one firefighter that pulled three kids out of the burning house and went in for another. No official confirmation but that's the word out  

No words. 

We're trying to get a handle on this story. Details are very vague right now. If true, that's incredibly sad and my thoughts are with the victims and the families, as well as the brother/sisterhood of firefighters. 

[Blizzard of 93]

12 minutes ago, AllWeather said:

Agreed. I have no idea what that was. I, like you, am skeptical of that measurement. Maybe the official measurement was taken after some melting took place? Not really sure there. I can ask in NWS chat, but no guarantee they'll get back to me!

That would be great to hear their reasoning & perhaps they would consider researching for a possible correction ?

I thought .9 was low, but then .2 inches was really surprising considering it snowed at a good rate for 5 or 6 hours & stuck to most non-paved surfaces.

[Atomixwx]

24 minutes ago, AllWeather said:

 and if I'm wrong, I'll get pitchforked and burned at the stake by south-central PA. 

And when was the last time that the general public informed you that you weren't wrong "ninety percent of the time?"

[AllWeather]

1 minute ago, Atomixwx said:

And when was the last time that the general public informed you that you weren't wrong "ninety percent of the time?"

Every day of my life. But normally sans pitchforks. 

[Atomixwx]

Well, I'll bring Canderson's shovel and serve at your defense lol

[pawatch]

52 minutes ago, canderson said:

Yesterday I mentioned wind. 

A fire in Harrisburg got caught in the wind and roared and I believe killed at least one firefighter that pulled three kids out of the burning house and went in for another. No official confirmation but that's the word out  

No words. 

Sad story...was a cold night to. Which probably didn't help...prayers

[canderson]

3 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Taken with a grain of salt, but the 12z NAM jackpot zone appears to have shifted considerably west.

This means the MA forum must be in meltdown mode.

[Voyager]

Quoted me before I deleted it...lol

I was premature, as I didn't wait for later frames. It's still a region-wide bomb. With a 10:1 ratio, everyone is at least 14 inches. With Kuchera, over 20 inches...