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Central PA - March 2017

MAG5035

By MAG5035,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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Jns2183

Jns2183

Posted
Posted
Well, we'll see what the rest of 12z guidance does. After that I'll be paying more attention to the HRRR/RAP and radar trends. We traded the classic miller B we had in guidance a few days ago for more of a pure coastal storm, which fortunately ended up a lot closer to the coast in guidance. The result increases top end accum potential but also tightens up the east to west snow gradient in PA. Instead of a miller B Ohio Valley low transfer solution where a large precip shield would be moving W-E across all of PA including the Pit region, the precip shield and majority of QPF will be from the coastal storm.. which will be attacking from the South/Southeast. And then you play the painstaking game of how far back into PA does it go?



Speaking of the precipitation shield, take a look at the current radar down south.


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Festus

Festus

Posted
Posted

Top Ten highest snowstorm totals in Lancaster.  Do we get on the list?

1. January 1996 – 30”

2. January 2016 – 26.7”

3. February 1983 – 24”

4. February 2003 – 24”

5. February 2010 – 24”

6. February 1958 – 20”

7. February 2010 – 19”

8. March 1993 – 18”

9. January 1945 – 17”

10. February 1961 – 17”

 

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Jim Marusak

Jim Marusak

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, sauss06 said:

not even 5 minutes ago i told a co-worker i'd bet him lunch that the State announces they're going t close tomorrow. And maybe the Gov. will initiate a State of Emergency before lunch time.  

what ever happened to that met Pa Emergency Management Agency hired? is he still there advising the Commonwealth? and will PennDot listen to him this time? 

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Festus said:

Top Ten highest snowstorm totals in Lancaster.  Do we get on the list?

1. January 1996 – 30”

2. January 2016 – 26.7”

3. February 1983 – 24”

4. February 2003 – 24”

5. February 2010 – 24”

6. February 1958 – 20”

7. February 2010 – 19”

8. March 1993 – 18”

9. January 1945 – 17”

10. February 1961 – 17”

 

7 of the top 8 storms since my senior year in high school. Weather, at all levels, seems to becoming more and more extreme these days. Some of it is hype, but there is a lot of ground truth, too. 

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Festus

Festus

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

7 of the top 8 storms since my senior year in high school. Weather, at all levels, seems to becoming more and more extreme these days. Some of it is hype, but there is a lot of ground truth, too. 

Agreed.  I remember a lot of "back in the day" snowstorm stories and it would seem "the day" is our days! 

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
  • Author
Posted
18 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Bands always set up from further west than modeled.   We see it every time.   I wouldn't worry 

Yea I'm not extremely worried. Like I said in the last page, I expect everyone in here to get warning snowfall. My concern is about busting low with respect to current NWS expectations. The several counties in the Altoona/State College region have a warning for 10-15". The Laurel's and NW mountains counties (which includes 2001kx) have it for 7-12 with higher possible in ridges. None of the 12z guidance so far has had those numbers in those areas this morning. Certainly the potential is still quite high to achieve double digit numbers most anywhere in C-PA.. but it's not nearly as much of a sure thing as the Sus Valley where we stand attm. We still got the Euro to come yet, and the UKMET still gets good precip well back into PA. After the 12z guidance I'll be shifting more focus into nowcast with the HRRR and other near term products.

The western zones can make up for less QPF with good ratios, which I anticipate to be greater than 10:1... perhaps even up to 15:1 if we get good banding. That can also be the case everywhere else in here too, which could allow for more excessive 20"+ totals in the Sus Valley or NE. We have a cold column to work with.. and significant 700mb lift nearby. It has been cold and a lot of the heaviest part of the storm looks to come during the overnight into the morning hours tomorrow. So it should easily pile up and will continue to do so throughout the day so long as we have the good rates. The column may warm up aloft to preclude higher ratios in the southern tier of the Sus Valley, but they'll have the benefit of higher QPF. 

The west may also benefit from lingering backlash snowfall and eventually some lake enhancement tomorrow night into Wednesday as the storm exits. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea I'm not extremely worried. Like I said in the last page, I expect everyone in here to get warning snowfall. My concern is about busting low with respect to current NWS expectations. The several counties in the Altoona/State College region have a warning for 10-15". The Laurel's and NW mountains counties (which includes 2001kx) have it for 7-12 with higher possible in ridges. None of the 12z guidance so far has had those numbers in those areas this morning. Certainly the potential is still quite high to achieve double digit numbers most anywhere in C-PA.. but it's not nearly as much of a sure thing as the Sus Valley where we stand attm. We still got the Euro to come yet, and the UKMET still gets good precip well back into PA. After the 12z guidance I'll be shifting more focus into nowcast with the HRRR and other near term products.

The western zones can make up for less QPF with good ratios, which I anticipate to be greater than 10:1... perhaps even up to 15:1 if we get good banding. That can also be the case everywhere else in here too, which could allow for more excessive 20"+ totals in the Sus Valley or NE. We have a cold column to work with.. and significant 700mb lift nearby. It has been cold and a lot of the heaviest part of the storm looks to come during the overnight into the morning hours tomorrow. So it should easily pile up and will continue to do so throughout the day so long as we have the good rates. The column may warm up aloft to preclude higher ratios in the southern tier of the Sus Valley, but they'll have the benefit of higher QPF. 

The west may also benefit from lingering backlash snowfall and eventually some lake enhancement tomorrow night into Wednesday as the storm exits. 

so basically.....

no matter how you slice it were all into the good stuff!!  

You worded that so eloquently to not leave anyone out.

 

BRAVO.

 

 

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, canderson said:

It's weird seeing the Euro showing such a bomb and excess qpf. I don't necessarily buy it but there does seem to be a lot of moisture available so maybe it's on to something. But it and the GFS are fairly far apart w/ qpf it seems.

GFS was actually too dry back on 2/14/13. But yeah...the Euro is usually the drier model. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

4 slices of bread and 3 waters per day till snow melts. :P

for my western brethren...
notably 2001kx and WMSPTdude  see bolded

000
FXUS61 KCTP 131728
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
128 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A major winter storm will bring heavy snow to central
Pennsylvania this evening through most of Tuesday. Much of the
eastern half of the commonwealth will see over 12 inches of
snow. West central areas will see 6 to 12 inches of snow. After
a period of lake effect snow during mid-week and brief high
pressure at the end of the week, an unsettled pattern will
return.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
New NAM still pumping out some seriously higher QPF for the
region, esp in the corridor from State College to Bloomsburg.
Have to wait a little longer to believe the NAM, but it does do
well with frontogenesis and other mesoscale features as we get
nearer in time.

No major changes, only very minor tweaks to near term temps and
just an hour or two slower arrival into the southern tier. It is
very clear and dry over the Mid-Atlantic right now. But, clouds
are massing in NC and just about to VA. addition of an inch/two
in the Susq Valley and Central Mtns. The western areas may need
an inch shaved off, but unwilling to go that way w/o more
support from other 12z runs yet.


Prev...
Central PA enjoying the calm before the storm this morning...
although it`s mighty cold for mid March outside. Early morning
temperatures range from the single digits above zero over
portions of the North and Central Mountains...and range through
the teens across much of the remainder of central PA to the
lower 20s southeast.

Mid cloud starting to increase from the Ohio Valley as sfc ridge
axis moves off of the eastern seaboard this morning. Inverted
sfc troffing will develop by this afternoon over the Ohio Valley
and northwest PA as sfc low tracks from the Mid Mississippi
River Valley to the mid Tennessee River Valley by this evening.
Secondary sfc low off of the southeast coast this morning will
lift northward throughout the day to be located along the NC/SC
coastline by 00z Tue. This low will then strengthen and track
steadily NE along over Cape Hatteras tonight and along the Mid
Atlantic coast Tuesday.

Some light snow may break out over the Northwest Mountains by
late afternoon...but model consensus delays onset of snow for
most until after 00z. Highs today will only range from the mid
20s north to the mid 30s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
*Heavy Snow tonight and Tuesday*

Consensus continues to solidify for upcoming major winter storm
to bring widespread heavy snow to central PA. Poor man`s
ensemble of GEFS, ECMWF ensembles and deterministic runs brings
1.00" or greater mean QPF to the eastern half of central
PA...with 0.6" to 0.8" QPF to western areas. The result will be
widespread 6 to 10 inch snowfall west...and 12 to 18 inches
east...with portions of the middle to lower Susq River Valley
receiving more than 20 inches before all is done by early
Wednesday. Most of the accumulation will occur in this time
period however...with 24 hour amounts of 8 inches or greater
from 8pm Mon through 8pm Tue justifying Winter Storm Warnings
throughout.

The heaviest snowfall is still expected to occur from 06z Tue
through 18z Tuesday...with 1-2" per hour rates expected for
several hours from the pre dawn to late morning hours Tuesday.
Uncertainty remains with respect to western extent of 1.0"+ QPF
but consensus of all solutions mirrors ECMWF ensemble quite
well, with the eastern half of central PA seeing 1" plus water
equivalent and western half generally between one half 1 inch.

Deformation snowfall will persist into Tuesday afternoon with
additional light accumulations in most areas. Far eastern areas
will continue to significantly add to their totals while
remaining on the western periphery of the heaviest snowfall
associated with the offshore coastal low.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Strong coastal low races northeastward to southeast New England
by Tuesday evening, with deformation snowfall and then lake
effect snowfall continuing across western and central areas. A
reinforcing surge of cold air will follow behind the storm with
snow showers Wed- Thu. Temperatures well below average Wed
behind the system with a slow moderation through the extended
but still below average.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly just high clouds across central PA now.

Storm getting organized across the southeast now, timing
still looks good.

Main change to 18Z package was adjust timing a hour or
two in spots, and add groups for changing conditions.

The storm will rapidly overspread the region this evening with
rapidly lowering conditions. Heavy snow and LIFR cigs and vsbys
in +SN are expected overnight into Tuesday. Slow tapering of
snow Tuesday into Tuesday night. IFR conditions in the west and
MVFR conditions in the east expected Tuesday night.

Winds will pick up on Tuesday, as the coastal storm becomes
the main storm.

Mainly VFR conditions on Wednesday, except continuing
restrictions in west and north in widespread snow showers.

Outlook...

Mon Night-Tue AM...Widespread LIFR in +SN.

Tues PM...SN ending S-N in the east, but continuing in the West.
Generally improving to IFR W and MVFR E. Windy.

Wed...Mainly VFR, with residual MVFR conditions in snow
showers, especially in the west and north. Windy.

Thu...Mainly VFR, with residual MVFR conditions in snow
showers in the west and north. Winds slowly diminishing.

Fri...Mainly VFR.

Sat...Chance of rain and snow showers.


&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to 10 PM EDT
Tuesday for PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-
046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
Winter Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
Wednesday for PAZ004-005-010-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/DeVoir
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Martin
LONG TERM...Ross/DeVoir/Fitzgerald
AVIATION...Martin
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Rickg2

Rickg2

Posted
Posted 
PAZ040-044-047-048-072-141900-
/O.UPG.KBGM.WS.W.0004.170314T0000Z-170316T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBGM.BZ.W.0001.170314T0000Z-170315T0000Z/
Northern Wayne-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
Including the cities of Damascus, Equinunk, Scranton, Hazleton,
Wilkes-Barre, Milford, and Honesdale
259 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a Blizzard
Warning, which is in effect from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
Tuesday. The Winter Storm Warning is no longer in effect.

* LOCATIONS...Wayne, Pike, Lackawanna, and Luzerne counties in
  Northeast Pennsylvania.

* HAZARD TYPES...Heavy snow, as well as significant blowing and
  drifting.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Snow accumulations of 14 to 20 inches in valley
  locations and up around 2 feet at higher elevations.

* TIMING...Snow will overspread the area near or just prior to
  midnight. Snow will become heavy at times shortly after midnight
  with heavy snow continuing through much of the day on Tuesday.
  The snow will taper off to lighter snow and snow showers Tuesday
  night. Winds will increase from the north or northeast later
  tonight with occasional gusts to 35 mph late tonight and
  especially Tuesday. Most of the snow will be over by Tuesday
  night but blowing and drifting snow will cause travel problems
  through Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...The heavy snow will combine with strong winds to cause
  low visibility along with considerable blowing and drifting
  snow. White out conditions will be common, especially over the
  Pocono plateau. Travel will become nearly impossible in many
  areas. Bitter wind chills may produce frostbite with prolonged
  exposure to the cold.

* WINDS...North 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* VISIBILITIES...Snow and blowing snow will reduce visibilities to
  a quarter mile or less for several hours.

* TEMPERATURES...Mostly in the 20s.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means blizzard conditions are expected or
occurring. A blizzard is the most dangerous and life-threatening
winter storm. Blizzards reduce visibility to less than 1/4 mile
from falling and/or blowing snow with frequent wind gusts over
35 mph for at least 3 hours. A blizzard warning means that
prolonged whiteout conditions are expected or occurring which
will make travel extremely dangerous or even impossible. If you
venture out, you could be risking your life.

&&

$$
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