RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 lol, we have goalposts at d6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Absolute long duration crushjob Wow no kidding, energizer bunny storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah that doesn't get better on the GFS. All downhill now. Did you have to throw in the second comment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 That's about a 40 hour storm on the GFS. Fun eye candy, but relatively meaningless at D6-7. At least there's a very strong signal for some type of system within a few hundred miles of us around that time with very good antecedent airmass conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Lot of snow over a long period as modeled on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 lol check out what's coming in behind it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That's about a 40 hour storm on the GFS. Fun eye candy, but relatively meaningless at D6-7. At least there's a very strong signal for some type of system within a few hundred miles of us around that time with very good antecedent airmass conditions. That's what had been missing on many of these this winter, Good sign for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: lol check out what's coming in behind it Erin go ski parka Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Erin go ski parka Seriously though, if that somehow verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That's about a 40 hour storm on the GFS. Fun eye candy, but relatively meaningless at D6-7. At least there's a very strong signal for some type of system within a few hundred miles of us around that time with very good antecedent airmass conditions. Why are people in the NYC subforum saying that it's a step back and cuts snowfall totals in half over the 6z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Seriously though, if that somehow verifies We knew this period was to be active, So anything goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, Paragon said: Why are people in the NYC subforum saying that it's a step back and cuts snowfall totals in half over the 6z run? Because they are looking at the surface and not at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, Paragon said: Why are people in the NYC subforum saying that it's a step back and cuts snowfall totals in half over the 6z run? Because hardly anyone there has a clue and look strictly at weenie snow maps to compare runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: Why are people in the NYC subforum saying that it's a step back and cuts snowfall totals in half over the 6z run? It's a 6 day run. It's really meaningless besides determining the overall pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 21 minutes ago, leesun said: I was in NY at the time. I remember it well. The forecast the night before was for 1-3" changing to rain along the coast. Where I was on south coast of Long Island received over 30" Really over 30"? I thought it was more like 12-18 lol. I assume you're talking about the Jan Blizzard since you mentioned the forecast of change to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: It's a 6 day run. It's really meaningless besides determining the overall pattern. Yeah, they just said a little faster and a little further east than the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Also, lol at microanalyzing and comparing op runs at D6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Because hardly anyone there has a clue and look strictly at weenie snow maps to compare runs. That's true, the whining has already begun lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: Yeah, they just said a little faster and a little further east than the 6z run. It was def a little east...but that change is meaningless at 6 days out...runs will shift a lot between now and verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Also, lol at microanalyzing and comparing op runs at D6. OT but my favorite is when people are trying to analyze runs as they come out and one guy says "it went east!" and the next guy says 'it went west!" or, "wow what a crush job" and the next guy says "it's a rainstorm" - it happens all too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: Yeah, they just said a little faster and a little further east than the 6z run. Fine, which it is. Then 18z will be slower and more tucked or completely lose it lol, been through this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Also, lol at microanalyzing and comparing op runs at D6. I'm pissed! It took us out of the game. Congrats Weymouth! </sarcasm> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 The only meaningful thing right now is its been consistently modeled this far out and watch that it continues until we get into a shorter lead to determine the finer details if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Yeah, I mean, I'd be more concerned if other models started showing CMC-like solutions where we don't get enough wave spacing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 I'm eagerly anticipating Steve's 384hr total Kuchera map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: ... the inevitable, proverbial "black-out" intervals loom.. That's when we finally come to what appears to be an early consensus on a trend (not so much a final solution), then... monkey wrench the hell out of it with several runs that totally lose it seemingly out of nowhere and for no apparent physical reason. About half the time, the system suddenly re-emerges ..oh, D 4, after the hiatus. Other times, they don't... chalk it up to perturbation/chaos/fractals getting a say in matters. The thing is, if they do come back ...such as the muse above, that D 4 seems to suddenly have a higher confidence interval - not mathematically/statistically derived per se. You just seem to know it's coming. Contrasting, we wring hands waiting for a comeback that either never takes place ...or, you end up with some weird coincident other minoring ordeal that takes some of the bite pressure away. But this paragraph confused the observations re the modeling behavior with sentiment... Point is, since there certainly plenty of precedence for it, we shouldn't be surprised if we do lose it for a couple few cycels, only to have it re-emerge. Also, ...this may be an opportunity to test the following: often times ...big deal events don't disappear in the guidance like that. The reason why is because they are more keyed at planetary wave scales and the modulation at those scales .. the storm is part and parcel to large mass-field correction events. It's hard to perturb with butterfly wing flaps, an entire planetary atmospheric signal - the latter is too overwhelming and absorbs those influences. It's really all Newton's First Law in action... Objects in motion will stay in motion until acted upon by some force capable of altering its momentum (not the exact text but interpretive -) Well, daily perturbations are less 'capable' of exacting a momentum change on a very large process already in motion. It's remarkably elegantly simple. And, there are other examples that are sort of in between that take on both the fleeting events, up to the scale of the 'adjustment bureau bombs.' Take April 1997... That wasn't a huge PW scaled correction event, but it was marked deeply in the atmospheric physics enough, too, that it was picked up and less likely to erode per perturbation ...from some five to seven days out in time. That's the same for 1992, December. ...etc. But, March of 1993? That's pretty much the apex quintessential example of the entire hemisphere getting in on the forcing... That sucker popped up on the MRF ensembles at like D13 ...not kidding. I remember it up at UML. what you on say on 93 is absolutely true. I bet you can find newspaper articles talking about this storm from 5 day lead time. Its the one that got me hooked on the idea that you can see big ones from far away. Kind of makes sense literally - there's a big mountain, way over there, but you can't see the house on it until you get close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It was def a little east...but that change is meaningless at 6 days out...runs will shift a lot between now and verification. Yeah and I would opine that those anomalously warm SST that have been fueling our big snowstorms the last couple of years, even in mild winters, will do their work and keep the storm closer to the coast. Funny difference between the 80s and now- the winters were colder back then but are snowier now, thanks to the higher moisture content and altered storm track (back then secondaries seemed to develop further offshore and the timing was off between cold air and snow.) These days we just need one or two days of cold weather to get above normal snow, and the rest of the time it can be mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 1 minute ago, cleetussnow said: what you on say on 93 is absolutely true. I bet you can find newspaper articles talking about this storm from 5 day lead time. Its the one that got me hooked on the idea that you can see big ones from far away. Kind of makes sense literally - there's a big mountain, way over there, but you can't see the house on it until you get close. Yes, but the great thing is when all the major players line up, you just know it's going to happen. The only thing that could have been better with that storm was a benchmark track and it slowing down or even stalling and then doing a loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 20 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Wow no kidding, energizer bunny storm. With HP there this thing will last for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 26 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea, the outcome in ones backyard is a different discussion then the overall verification of h5 or whatever. which causes all the bS about cutters always cutting, when we talk about sensible weather its a fine line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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