Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Do the math Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not alot of detail regarding the run...how is it? I thought it was excellent. Wonder what Will is microanlyzing crunching data over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 It was just a strange evolution. Ended up with two closed h5 lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Absolute crush job with winds and ratios and temps it's a Blizzzzzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This will be pretty good....but it's bizarre since it is focusing on this little vortmax on the east flank of the trough. strikes me as putting the emphasis on the wrong trigger -...then, convection and native baroclinic instability that exists there then take over. Or, it may be that these latter parametrics are so overwhelming they force the trigger to get pulled... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I said it would be a good run, just commenting on the evolution which was very bizarre. Doubt it actually ends up like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 End result looks like GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: It was just a strange evolution. Ended up with two closed h5 lows. Yeah, 0z that lead piece escaped east, Don't think this will be the end result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 It's strange with those two s/w's...but if the eastern s/w phased, it's over NYC fanny. Beware too much of a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: It was just a strange evolution. Ended up with two closed h5 lows. Metaphor: it's so far out in time it's seeing double... This will probably get resolved into a single feature that closer it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 So the Ukie was the furthest west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 There is snow in the air until Thursday morning. That is a beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's strange with those two s/w's...but if the eastern s/w phased, it's over NYC fanny. Beware too much of a good thing. My guess is the 12z Ukie did that seeing where the slp ended up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 So if we get a full phase, we need the trough to shift east.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Wouldn't shake on minor details at this lead. Doubt it goes over NYC with the position of the Banana high but of course that and an escape out to sea are on the table at this long lead. Just verbatim for now it's a crush job similar to some all timers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Takeaway - the crapped out grazers have diminished today. The table is still set but with a bit more hugging as an option. 5 days out nothing to complain or sweat about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Wouldn't shake on minor details at this lead. Doubt it goes over NYC with the position of the Banana high but of course that and an escape out to sea are on the table at this long lead. Just verbatim for now it's a crush job similar to some all timers. Meh, look at the Ukie. Surface features dictated by upper level features. Just because there is a high doesn't mean it blocks a low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 My guess is this eastern piece consolidates on future runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Meh, look at the Ukie. Surface features dictated by upper level features. Just because there is a high doesn't mean it blocks a low. You're so praying for UKMET. I've been there and you can't fool me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: You're so praying for UKMET. I've been there and you can't fool me. No I would want the snow to come home to. I would never wish a snowstorm away. However I did do that for Irene. I was in CA and glad it weakened to a TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: My guess is this eastern piece consolidates on future runs Agree...hopefully the trough trends more progressive, if so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Def not DXR...we know the drill. The Euro will have a run or two where it totally goes nuclear and jackpots like W CT up to ALB and everyone back east will panic about another boxing day while powderfreak's post count triples...then it will come back east...Tauntonblizzard will say it looks like garbage the entire time citing the worst model of each suite while ignoring the good runs....Ray will keep talking about how the best banding will be just SE of him and just NW him while he sucks on exhaust, and then complains his way to 17"...moneypitmike will keep pretending he won't get more than a few inches even though every model gives an inch of QPF out to W MA...Jerry will pretend he never posted he was ready for winter to end at the end of February when it was 70F and talk about how this reminds him of March 1956....while tamarack mentions 1956 in NNJ and then makes a reference to a storm that overperformed in March 1984 while he was in Fort Kent, ME. Do you keep notes on all our goofy/weenie posts here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: You're so praying for UKMET. I've been there and you can't fool me. I'm with you, it's pretty transparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Meh, look at the Ukie. Surface features dictated by upper level features. Just because there is a high doesn't mean it blocks a low. Um think I said that it's possible but yesterday the Ukie was headed to Nova Scotia. I ain't shaking details like that out, just looking at upper air and blocking highs. Enjoy the rattler pit it's the only rattler pit you got. If Alison needs digging out let us know we will send Big Jay from Southie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: My guess is this eastern piece consolidates on future runs Oh that ? come on guys - that's a convectively produced satellite vorticy - may as well be a TS zipping on the eastern wall of an autumn trough - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 However, if it did...you would have a hellacious storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Agree...hopefully the trough trends more progressive, if so... If not, The end result may not be to the eastern folks liking if that phases in sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: My guess is this eastern piece consolidates on future runs Probably some convective voodoo in the models too with that southern piece. Hard to separate real from imagined at this lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: Probably some convective voodoo in the models too with that southern piece. Hard to separate real from imagined at this lead time. Yeah was just thinking that and I saw Tip's post too. It does have origins in the Plains though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: However, if it did...you would have a hellacious storm. Just speaking for me, but wouldn't care if it rained here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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