CT Rain Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 GFS is flat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Paul, the SSTs and arctic air instability parameters are in place along the forecasted track of this surface low pressure center. The static instability is present enough for a major ramp up in intensification. There are still other factors which need to be considered, especially with regards to the 500mb evolution and interaction of shortwaves. While the Euro isn't as aggressive as the NAM or GFS (which kinda sucks) it really isn't totally far off. One thing to watch too is on the NAM at least, it began to develop a 700mb circulation actually almost right over CT but later in the period...if that does happen and develops say just west of here that would introduce a dry slot somewhere. Just something to keep in the back of the mind I guess. Might see some steep lapse rates too which could enhance lift as well and midlevel instaiblity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Upton already has snowfall in the grids and the min likely maps have been updated for 0 min, 4-5 likely, 9-10 max for the CWA...BOX still holding off until this first event passes...Kinda surprised to see OKX issue those numbers this far out to be honest. Well really need to start collaborating what time period we're doing those probabilities in. Talk about confusing for CT decision makers. They have one set of probabilities from BOX and ALY for one storm, and another from OKX for a completely different storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 gfs is slower at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: GFS is flat Yeah basically a whiff north of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Well really need to start collaborating what time period we're doing those probabilities in. Talk about confusing for CT decision makers. They have one set of probabilities from BOX and ALY for one storm, and another from OKX for a completely different storm. we are the red headed step child. Thankfully Ryan either talks the residents off the edge or takes them to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Gfs is a graze... and I mean graze... probably nothing north of pike that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gfs is a graze... and I mean graze... probably nothing north of pike that run The off hour run last night went flat after 0z then came back at 12z, now its doing it again at 18z, wouldnt be surprised to see it amped up again at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Weird runs... ensembles continue to be wetter than the op... something has to give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: The off hour run last night went flat after 0z then came back at 12z, now its doing it again at 18z, wouldnt be surprised to see it amped up again at 00z Is that off hour run stuff real? I always kind of thought that was weenie voodoo to explain away a bad solution. Either way... I guess you could argue you can't really set anything in stone until this storm passes. the run to run variance shows how thread the needle-ish this setup is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: we are the red headed step child. Thankfully Ryan either talks the residents off the edge or takes them to it. Yeah I'm not exactly thrilled about the winter wx advisory and freezing rain advisory in effect for the same wx. I just changed the colors on our system so they match lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Lots of spread equals lots of solutions. Going to be awhile to sort this out, maybe tommorow 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Is that off hour run stuff real? I always kind of thought that was weenie voodoo to explain away a bad solution. Either way... I guess you could argue you can't really set anything in stone until this storm passes. the run to run variance shows how thread the needle-ish this setup is It isn't. Off hour runs have improved in recent years. What we're most likely seeing is this bolded part. The shortwave is over the Pacific, so how the model decides initialize its strength determines the evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: It isn't. Off hour runs have improved in recent years. Yeah and a 66 hour 18z run is better than a 72 hour 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 The OP runs flopping around isn't a surprise given the ensembles right now...there is exceptionally large ensemble spread for an event this close. Ryan mentioned earlier how it was interesting that we're seeing huge spread rather than the usual "ensemble follows the OP run trend every time" type narrative we usually get. It basically means we're just going to have to wait. There larger scale pattern isn't offering a ton of clues either. You have some pros and cons of the setup...the pros are that the PNA ridge is amplifying while the storm is developing. That usually gives the system a "tail wind" so to speak for being more robust...another pro is the pretty decent coupled/dual jet streak setup. That will try and promote pretty rapid cyclogenesis not far from us to our southwest. The cons are the very fast flow and the limited moisture recharge after tomorrow's system. We'll see which set of variables wins out, but it's not obvious right now. Sometimes we can figure out which variables are likely to succeed...I'm not sure we can in this one quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Tough forecast wish you guys luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 The fact that the NAM is the only guidance showing something more than an advisory level snow right now is definitey concerning for the prospect of warning snow right now. that GFS run looks a lot more like the euro than it does the NAM. Obviously it can change... but having the NAM as the most impressive doesn't exactly inspire confidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 The GEFS, the Ukie and some of the EPS members show big hits. It's not just the NAM lol.. This probably ends up a solid 4-8" region wide storm with a narrow zone of 10+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 In what respect is the GFS more "flat" than the NAM? Comparing 500mb vorticity between the 18z runs for 12z Thursday I see some differences between the two but not sure what aspect is flatter on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The OP runs flopping around isn't a surprise given the ensembles right now...there is exceptionally large ensemble spread for an event this close. Ryan mentioned earlier how it was interesting that we're seeing huge spread rather than the usual "ensemble follows the OP run trend every time" type narrative we usually get. It basically means we're just going to have to wait. There larger scale pattern isn't offering a ton of clues either. You have some pros and cons of the setup...the pros are that the PNA ridge is amplifying while the storm is developing. That usually gives the system a "tail wind" so to speak for being more robust...another pro is the pretty decent coupled/dual jet streak setup. That will try and promote pretty rapid cyclogenesis not far from us to our southwest. The cons are the very fast flow and the limited moisture recharge after tomorrow's system. We'll see which set of variables wins out, but it's not obvious right now. Sometimes we can figure out which variables are likely to succeed...I'm not sure we can in this one quite yet. On your pros side I feel the models are playing catchup to the PNA ridge developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 youre delusionally disturbed if you think just the nam is on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: On your pros side I feel the models are playing catchup to the PNA ridge developing. Agree, youre doing well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Agree, youre doing well. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Thanks DIT, BZONE, ICEBERG >>>>> computer simulation of future atmospheric conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 54 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Yeah I'm not exactly thrilled about the winter wx advisory and freezing rain advisory in effect for the same wx. I just changed the colors on our system so they match lol At least it's not 2006 again with different colors for snow advisory, winter weather advisory, freezing rain advisory, winter storm warning, heavy snow warning, all in the same state. That was awful, glad they did away with that fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Jeez the GEFS mean is still rather juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Inside members would probably be nam like. Out to sea members would be euro like. Long way to go my friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Haha whiff or rainer. Pick your poison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Mostly all hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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