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Wow

Jan 6-8 Winter Storm Observations

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1 minute ago, SouthWake33 said:

Sleet mixing in with the rain in Cary near Lake Pine

yes can 2nd that.  

Watching the WRAL iControl though the rain/snow line is just west of Chapel Hill.  If you loop it from 5:20-5:50 or so it advances then retreats a bit and stalls.  Hope that is not going to be challenge here. 

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46 minutes ago, Lookout said:

I have a friend here that I stay with and who puts up with a thousand trips outside and to the window lol

I think we are pretty much in the same boat  and as good as place as any to be honest. Go any further NW and run the risk of it being drier..while further se and temps are an issue. 

Interesting to note...temps have been  about 3 to 5 degrees colder than the models were showing back home...someone even said they saw a few flakes. I was conflicted about whether to leave or not since I've been thinking the models were probably 4 or 5 degrees too warm and with heavy precip/lift a  much sooner changeover was possible. What forced my hand though was that models were warming temps aloft  ever so slightly each run and chances of an earlier changeover was less and less. Will be interesting to see what actually happens.

 

heck, maybe we should roadtrip to your house. i went to Athens several years ago when we got zilch here and Athens got about 8.   soon as I crossed 85 it went from a dusting to about 5 inches in less than a mile.

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2 minutes ago, GlaringSun said:

The humidity is 90% though... Not high enough?

You want to look at the Dew point, which is slightly different than humidity.  The lower the dew point, the drier the air. if the dew point is high and still no precip,  then it must just be virga or radar reflections that look like precip

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1 minute ago, wxdawg10 said:

You want to look at the Dew point, which is slightly different than humidity.  The lower the dew point, the drier the air. if the dew point is high and still no precip,  then it must just be virga or radar reflections that look like precip

Oh, alright. Currently it's 32/27, how soon do you think the precip will start reaching the ground?

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53 minutes ago, Lookout said:

I have a friend here that I stay with and who puts up with a thousand trips outside and to the window lol

I think we are pretty much in the same boat  and as good as place as any to be honest. Go any further NW and run the risk of it being drier..while further se and temps are an issue. 

Interesting to note...temps have been  about 3 to 5 degrees colder than the models were showing back home...someone even said they saw a few flakes. I was conflicted about whether to leave or not since I've been thinking the models were probably 4 or 5 degrees too warm and with heavy precip/lift a  much sooner changeover was possible. What forced my hand though was that models were warming temps aloft  ever so slightly each run and chances of an earlier changeover was less and less. Will be interesting to see what actually happens.

 

I'm not really sure what to believe. FFC has me on the eastern side of a 4-6" swath while others are saying areas to my east may get more. I'm not sure if I'd rather be further east or further west. FFC says places like Rome, Dalton, etc will get 4-6" also. I guess the warm nose will keep areas off to my east and southeast warmer meaning less snow ?

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9 minutes ago, Touchet said:

A strong storm just popped up sw of us. thunder sleet?  That ought to be interesting. 

Awesome. Keep us updated!

7 minutes ago, burgertime said:

I'm happy to report snow in Amsterdam in Hoofddorpplein! 32 and light snow!

Going to need you to pronounce that city name :)

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2 minutes ago, toxictwister00 said:

Light Freezing Rain occurring at Hartsfield In'tl Airport right now per NWS obs. 32°F/DP 30°F

I'm about 2-3 miles N of Hartsfield and can confirm. Looked like some icicles starting to form on my back porch. 

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1 minute ago, GlaringSun said:

Oh, alright. Currently it's 32/27, how soon do you think the precip will start reaching the ground?

It is more about how dry the whole column of air from cloud to ground is. 

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2 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I'm not really sure what to believe. FFC has me on the eastern side of a 4-6" swath while others are saying areas to my east may get more. I'm not sure if I'd rather be further east or further west.

sucks to drive away from your house and then someone calls you from your house and says its pouring snow there.  Yes its a risk, but my take right now is I'm staying put.  that is always subject to change, but right now staying put, could be the sweet spot. 

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Just now, MOD said:

It is more about how dry the whole column of air from cloud to ground is. 

I understand. Is there any way to tell when the air column will be moist enough for precip to hit the ground? Could it stay like this for another hour?

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1 minute ago, MOD said:

It is more about how dry the whole column of air from cloud to ground is. 

Do you have snow falling?

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30 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

36/33 here in Easley. Nothing falling. Saw a little sleet piled against my gutters though. I think upstate is going to struggle with temps and transition the whole time. Then if we do transition, boundary layer temps are too warm for much accum.

We may struggle with moisture...I mean, where is it?

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5 minutes ago, jrips27 said:

Very curious to see what's falling under that heavier batch that just entered Georgia north of I-20

I'm located in that heavy batch you see on radar. its mostly sleet with some snow. starting to get heavy now.

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