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January 7th/8th Storm Discussion


TauntonBlizzard2013

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5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's an additional sign that things are trending a little more NW than modeled. A baroclinic zone in the Carolinas being NW of models is likely good news for us later on.

Hope it puts BOS in the bullseye so it could beat my life best: 8" while in Japan.

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We are getting clobbered north of Raleigh-Durham, specifically northern Granville County.  From RAH, may impact yall:

The main change from the previous forecast has been to slightly
reduce snow/frozen totals roughly south of a line from Rockingham to
Garner to Rocky Mount, where boundary layer (wet bulb) temperatures
have and will continue to favor a longer duration tonight of mostly
rain, mixed at times with sleet, and also where periods of sleet
late tonight sleet will cut into frozen/snow totals even as the
boundary layers cools to and below freezing. In what is expected to
be the all or mostly snow area over the Nrn Piedmont, where the 00Z
GSO RAOB sampled an extremely favorable snow profile, currently
advertised "Most Likely" snow totals may be conservative given the
wetter trend in recent NAM and RAP runs.

The recent wetter solutions may indeed be on to something, given the
aforementioned favorably juxtaposed QG and mesoscale forcing for
ascent. An approximately 00Z sounding from the NCSU sounding club
sampled an approximately 2 C warm nose at 800 mb; and both the
recent NAM and RAP/HRRR runs suggest this warm nose may oscillate
about Wake Co. through much of the night. This data suggest an even
sharper gradient in frozen totals is likely to be directly over the
Triangle, with just a few inches over srn Wake Co. and perhaps close
to a foot (or more) across Durham and Granville Co.

 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Not a big change from a qpf standpoint vs 12z  (except up by Eastport) but I am more impressed aloft. This isn't the storm to be a qpf queen. 

I mean based on H7, the 12z should've pounded a nice area of snow from PVD to BOS. But all the QPF was over the Cape. So we definitely will nudge totals up to the NW of the best QPF.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean based on H7, the 12z should've pounded a nice area of snow from PVD to BOS. But all the QPF was over the Cape. So we definitely will nudge totals up to the NW of the best QPF.

Euro seems to do this a lot in coastal systems. Places the best qpf where the lower level forcing seems to be. 

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